Opening Note…

I’m back on the Isle Of Man this week to check on the progress of the castle renovation… So far, so good! It’s really coming along and the top floor is almost fully ready for habitation (once the bathroom is fitted).

The middle and bottom floors are another story, but all in good time…

I am at a loss for words to say much more than that in the introduction this week, ha!

Other than it feels good to be back (even if just for a short period) before I need to travel again in a couple of weeks time (SE Asia & Japan).

Table of Contents

• 1. Weekly Spotlight

• 2. Quick Takes

• 3. Chart Of The Week

• 4. Market Overview

• 5. Faith & Success

1. Weekly Spotlight

The $550 Billion Deal Between The US & Japan… 

Japan just wired the first $2.2 billion of a $550 billion commitment to the United States. Did you hear about this? No, probably not… And now other countries are thinking very carefully as to whether they should follow.

Japan agreed to put $550 billion into US infrastructure projects, but the US picks the projects and runs the vehicles that hold the money, while Japan just provides the cash. The cash flow split is 50/50 at first, but after a certain threshold, 90% goes to the United States.

To put that in context, $550 billion is roughly 8% of total US federal spending and larger than the GDP of 34 US states. The arrangement also bypasses Congress completely, with no oversight committee.

So why would Japan agree to something this lopsided? The deal was struck in exchange for the US dropping tariffs on Japanese goods from 25% to 15%, so they can either pay into a fund the US controls, or watch their auto exports get crippled.

Now, this is where it gets interesting…

South Korea has already signed a similar deal for $350 billion after Trump threatened to hike their tariffs in March (which represents about 85% of their entire foreign reserves). The EU is next, with Trump giving them a July 4th deadline to deliver $600 billion in investments and $750 billion in energy purchases, or tariffs jump to "much higher levels".

This isn't really "trade" in the traditional sense anymore. It's closer to an access fee for the American market, where the entry cost is several hundred billion dollars paid in advance, with the US keeping 90% of any profits.

President Trump used tariff threats to lock countries into long-term commitments that don't depend on the tariffs surviving in court. The Supreme Court has already ruled parts of his tariff authority exceeded what IEEPA allows, but Japan and South Korea have committed regardless.

So who's next? Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines and reportedly India are all under pressure to agree to something similar….

The real question now is whether anyone says “no”, because the moment one country refuses, the whole structure could start to crack. I'll be watching the EU's July 4th deadline very closely, because that's the real test… I wonder what they’ll decide to do?

2. Quick Takes

Here are the other top stories shaping the week:

• The US Has Just Hit Iran Again

  US destroyers came under missile and drone attack in The Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM responded by striking Iranian sites at Qeshm and Bandar Abbas (although the series of events is questionable as to who escalated first). Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have lifted earlier restrictions on US base access, paving the way for Project Freedom to restart. A French nuclear carrier is heading through Suez to support reopening the Strait. To me its most likely Trump wants this wrapped up before he flies to Beijing, but Iran's uranium red lines haven't moved

• Iran Has Seized An Oil Tanker In The Gulf Of Oman

  Iranian commandos boarded the Ocean Koi (now renamed Jin Li), accusing it of disrupting Iranian oil exports. The seizure was then followed by US strikes on Iranian missile sites after Tehran fired at three American destroyers in Hormuz. Trump says the ceasefire holds but warned future strikes will be "harder and more violent." Brent is back near $100

• Even With A Peace Deal, The Oil Crisis Has Months Left To Run

  The world has burned through 600 million barrels since the war began, with total losses potentially hitting 2 billion barrels. Equinor's CEO says it'll take six months to normalise even with a deal, and Exxon says shipping alone needs 1-2 months to clear backlogs

• A US Court Has Just Ended The US’s Latest 10% Global Tariffs

  The US Court of International Trade ruled 2-1 against the 10% global tariffs, siding with small businesses who argued he was sidestepping an earlier Supreme Court ruling that struck down his 2025 tariffs. Trump invoked a 1974 trade law for "balance of payments deficits," but the court said that wasn't its purpose. This is the second time courts have ended the same tariff strategy in under a year

• The US National Debt Has Now Exceeded The Country's Entire Economy

  US debt held by the public hit $31.27 trillion in April, edging above $31.22 trillion GDP for the first time since World War II. Annual interest payments now top $1 trillion, more than Medicare or defence. The CBO projects debt will hit 120% of GDP by 2036. This will lead to Americans facing higher taxes, slower growth, and ugly inflation down the road

• UK Gilt Yields Drop As Starmer Refuses To Quit After Reform UK's Historic Win

  Nigel Farage's Reform UK has stormed England's local elections, picking up over 300 council seats while Labour lost 220 and the Conservatives 107. Tameside fell after 47 years of Labour rule. Starmer says he's staying as PM! (What! Can you actually believe it?!) Although the markets seem to be relieved that Starmer is staying. His likely replacement would favour higher spending, which could trigger a bond market sell-off similar to the one that took down Liz Truss in 2022 - although… (we’re already above those numbers now)

• 83% Of Americans Want Term Limits For Congress (But It Will Probably Never Happen)

  A new poll shows 83% support term limits, with strong majorities across Democrats, Republicans and independents. The problem with this is a 1995 Supreme Court ruling means it requires a constitutional amendment, asking two-thirds of Congress to limit their own time in office (unlikely). Another issue I see a lot is that many members promise term limits before getting elected, then change their minds once they arrive (of course)

• BlackRock Has Cut Its Private Credit Fund Value By Another 5%, And Golub Just Gated Investors

  BlackRock's TCP Capital marked down $35 million this quarter, following a 19% cut in January. On the same day, Golub gated its $9.9 billion fund after investors tried to pull 8.5% of shares, joining Blue Owl, Morgan Stanley, and Cliffwater in restricting outflows

3. Chart Of The Week

Global Government Debt Has Doubled In Many Countries Since 2005, And A Few Outliers Are Bucking The Trend

Global public debt has climbed from 68% to 95% of GDP over the past two decades, but the average hides huge gaps between countries. China's debt has rocketed from 26% to 96% of GDP, the UK has gone from 41% to 103%, the US from 66% to 125%, and Japan now sits at a staggering 230%, the highest of any major economy.

Meanwhile, Turkey actually cut its ratio from 50% to 24%, and Saudi Arabia dropped from 37% to 29%, showing it can be done when governments are willing to do it. Advanced economies as a group now sit at 110% of GDP, up from 76%.

With borrowing costs rising and growth slowing, the countries carrying triple-digit debt loads are heading into a much tougher decade than the ones who kept their houses in order. In 2024, US net interest payments hit $879.9 billion, finally overtaking the $850.7 billion defence budget, the first crossover in nearly a century.

4. Market Overview

S&P 500 (U.S.)
Pushed higher overall. Strong Q1 earnings did the heavy lifting, with the megacap AI names leading the charge and the Fed sitting tight on rates. The index hit fresh records mid-week before giving a bit back on Friday, but still finished green.

FTSE 100 (UK)
Down on the week. Oil slipping below $100 hammered BP and Shell, IAG issued a profit warning over fuel costs, and Intertek slumped after rejecting another EQT takeover approach. Weak UK housing data didn't help.

S&P/TSX Composite (Canada)
gained. Gold miners did most of the work as bullion stayed near records, and energy names held up despite a volatile week for oil.

ASX 200 (Australia)
Flat. The index rallied mid-week on Wall Street's records and a strong session from BHP, Fortescue, and the gold miners, but a sharp Friday selloff on from Strait of Hormuz worries wiped most of it out.

🇺🇸 United States – S&P 500

• High: 7,395.04

• Low: 7,182.51

🇬🇧 UK - FTSE 100

• High: 10,485.25

• Low: 10,169.65

🇨🇦 Canada – TSX Composite

• High: 34,122.12

• Low: 33,546.49

🇦🇺 Australia – ASX 200

• High: 8,887.90

• Low: 8,623.40

Cryptocurrency:

• Bitcoin (BTC): 2.8%

• Ethereum (ETH): -0.7%

• Tether (USDT): 0.0%

• BNB (BNB): 3.7%

• XRP (XRP): -0.3%

• USDC (USDC): 0.0%

• Solana (SOL): 5.3%

• TRON (TRX): 7.1%

• Figure Heloc (FIGR_HELOC): -2.8%

• Dogecoin (DOGE): -1.0%

Metals Market:

Gold–Silver Ratio: ~58:1, Dropped sharply this week. Silver ran harder than gold, pulling the ratio off its highs and back toward the bottom of the recent range.

Gold & Silver:

• Gold: Gained 1.74% with a Week High: $4,765 & Week Low: $4,507

• Silver: Rose 6.11% with a Week High: $82.14 & Week Low: $72.42

5. Faith & Success

Have you ever seen those viral videos of someone taking hours to make something?

And I don’t mean someone making something like on an assembly line in a factory, I mean a real artisan or craftsman creating something from scratch.

Recently, I saw a beautiful ‘mother of pearl’ inlaid wooden table - and the price tag was astronomical. When I asked why it cost so much, I was informed to watch a video which would explain the process to make it…

I was intrigued so I did just that. And boy was I shocked! I had no idea how much work was involved… this old man was making each piece by hand and then carving the wood and hammering it in.

I simply had no idea it required such skill. To be honest, I’d never really thought about it or how it was made.

And it made me think how much else I don’t know that I don’t know…

But one thing I do know is that success rarely happens by accident. Because behind every successful entrepreneur (yes I’m talking to you), and every small achievement is usually the same thing: consistent skill, discipline, and a commitment to improving over time.

This verse is a reminder to you that excellence opens doors. In a world where most people now chase shortcuts, true craftsmanship still stands out. The people who dedicate themselves to learning, refining their abilities, and showing up consistently are the ones who eventually separate themselves from the crowd.

This doesn't have to apply to carpentry by the way! This can even apply to those of you who create digital products and services… there can be beauty in that too.

Entrepreneurship isn’t only about big ideas, it’s also about becoming the kind of person capable of carrying those ideas well. Growth in business (or your career) often starts with growth in character, patience, and skill.

This weekend, maybe spend a few minutes in quiet contemplation. Ask yourself: Am I truly focused on sharpening my craft?

Because the work you put in today, is preparing you for a greater tomorrow.

Have a brilliant week my friend!

Take care, and God Bless.

Neil,

Digital Income Mastery: LINK

P.P.S. Why not share this newsletter with a friend?

Enjoying this Newsletter? Share with a Friend…

DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is 100% FREE & is designed to help your thinking, not direct it. These newsletters shall NOT be construed as tax, legal, or financial advice and may be outdated or inaccurate; all decisions made as a result of this information are yours alone.

Trading/Liability: Neil McCoy-Ward operates/trades under a private Ltd company within the Isle of Man.

1