Opening Note…

Welcome back again this week, friends!

My wife and I are in Japan at present, Tokyo more specifically.

I’m still trying to find my footing here to be honest, it’s unlike any Country I’ve ever visited so it's taking me a while to understand how this complex culture/society works…

There seem to be rules for just about everything, no talking loudly in public, no signs of affection with your wife, don't use your mobile phone while walking, don't eat while walking, don't drink while walking, don't put your chopsticks down on the table, don't ask for a takeaway box (offensive), don’t use the refreshing wipe for your face (even if sweaty) it’s only for your hands/fingers, don’t blow/wipe your nose in public, only stand on the left side of the escalator… the rules seem endless!

And since I’m not one for rules (like most of you reading this I’m sure!) I think it’s going to take me a few days to figure all of this out…

But on a more positive note… I found the nature spots right away - and they did not disappoint!

This is my favourite picture so far, a beautiful park I found in central Tokyo that no one was using… My wife and I were the only people there!

I feel like this is becoming a plague now wherever I go… we have incredible nature - beautiful, tranquil parks, walking trails, forests, water, all around and yet - everyone seems to prefer staying indoors or being in the City 24/7 watching TV or gaming.

Or even worse, I see younger people only using these nature spots to ‘pretend’ to be there, just to take pictures for Instagram, etc - but not really ‘being there’ - it’s a shame really. It’s as if, we’ve forgotten that we are indeed - a part of nature…

Personally, I felt very recharged/rejuvenated after 30 minutes just sitting here looking out over the water. Letting my thoughts just drift…

Ok enough of that… on to this weeks news then!

Table of Contents

• 1. Weekly Spotlight

• 2. Quick Takes

• 3. Chart Of The Week

• 4. Market Overview

• 5. Faith & Success

1. Weekly Spotlight

The World's Forecasters Just Hit the Panic Button

On Wednesday, the OECD released its big mid-year Economic Outlook, the report that 38 of the world's richest countries use to ‘plan their year’. The MSM keeps running the headline: ‘global growth cut to 2.8% for 2026, down from 3.4% last year’

However, the part they don’t mention is that the 2.8% figure only works if the Iran war ends soon and the Strait of Hormuz reopens by August - that’s in just 2 months time.

That's the "everything goes well" scenario. But if the war drags into 2027… Growth collapses to 2.1%, with the worst-case path pointing at 1.8%. For perspective, the pre-Covid normal (2013 to 2019) was 3.4%. So the GOOD outcome is well below normal.

The central worry of course is energy. Asian natural gas is up 80.8%, European natural gas is up 43.2%. Fertiliser is the worrying one, because expensive fertiliser today means expensive food in about six months… that’s a fact - there’s simply no way to fix that.

So even if the war stops tomorrow, the OECD still expects global inflation to hit 4.0% this year, (up from 3.4% last year).

The OECD said the worst hit will land on developing economies, where families spend a far bigger chunk of their income on energy and food (and their governments can't cushion that blow).

Europe is in the worst shape, with the eurozone forecast to grow just 0.8% (down from 1.4%), precisely because it's the most exposed to the energy shocks.

The one thing holding the world economy up right now is AI investment, all that liquidity pouring into data centres and chips. The OECD thinks it could even push growth higher in 2027.

But wait… what if the AI bubble pops? Well, that’s not even something worth thinking about. Forget about a recession… we’re talking something much worse when the bubble finally pops.

But of course, here’s the catch: AI runs on energy. Data centres are enormous power consumers, and a lot of the input needed for chips come from the Gulf…

2. Quick Takes

Here are the other top stories shaping the week:

• House Votes To Pull The Plug On Trump's Iran War

  The House passed a resolution ordering Trump to end the Iran war, 215 to 208, with four Republicans crossing the aisle. It's the first time such a measure has cleared either chamber in three months of fighting. The catch: it still needs the Senate, and Trump would veto it anyway…

• US Oil Stockpiles Have Now Fallen For Six Weeks Straight

  American crude inventories dropped for a sixth consecutive week and are approaching minimum operating levels, (this is the buffer the country tries never to dip below). The Hormuz disruption is steadily draining the cushion. Six weeks of falling reserves isn't a crisis yet, but it's the kind of drawdown that leaves a country with no room to manoeuvre when the next shock arrives

• Blackstone Just Slammed The Brakes On Investors

  Blackstone's giant private credit fund told investors it will only buy back 5% of shares this quarter, even though requests to cash out hit roughly 10%. That means the investors wanting to cash out can only get half their money currently. It's the second quarter running that withdrawals have outpaced new money, though the fund insists it's healthy and the move is "by design."

• HMRC Just Made £13 Million By Threatening To Raid People's Accounts

  HMRC has pulled in an extra £13 million by warning taxpayers it might take money from their bank accounts. The "direct recovery" powers, have only been used 12 times so far - for £225,000 in total. Tax experts warn it bullies people into paying even when they might owe nothing. You see this a lot with failing governments leaning on fear: scouring social media with AI, paying informants to snitch on the wealthy. The state is getting aggressive, and your bank account is fair game…

• Anthropic To Go Public

  Anthropic has confidentially filed a draft S-1 with the SEC, the first formal step toward going public. It comes days after the firm raised $65 billion at a $965 billion valuation, the largest private funding round any AI company has ever completed

• SpaceX Could Hit The Stock Market As Soon As Next Week

  Elon Musk's SpaceX could begin its IPO roadshow this week and debut on the Nasdaq as early as June 12th, reportedly targeting a valuation around $1.5 trillion (but I suspect it could go as high as $1.75T). That would instantly make it one of the most valuable companies ever to go public.
  - I'm publishing a detailed post about the SpaceX IPO this weekend - which you will be able to read here: LINK

• An AI Just Carried Out A Cyberattack (On Its Own)

  Security firm Sysdig has documented the first cyberattack run entirely by an AI, yes, that means: no humans. The agent broke in, hunted down cloud credentials, pulled a key out of AWS's vaults, and emptied a database. It did the whole thing in under an hour. The fear was always that AI would attack faster than any defender could react. Yep… We’re screwed.

• Most Companies Blaming AI For Layoffs Admit It's Not Really AI

  A survey of 1,000 US hiring managers found that 59% of companies play up AI's role when announcing layoffs, simply because it sounds better to investors than admitting they're short on cash. Only 9% said AI had actually replaced any roles.

Opportunity:

Sorry, there are currently no courses on sale right now. All courses are at the full RRP until the next sale is announced. All full priced courses can be viewed here: https://nmwfinance.teachable.com/

3. Chart Of The Week

Inflation Forecasts in G20 Economies

Inflation has calmed across most major economies since the 2022 surge, but two countries still stand miles apart from the rest. Argentina (30.4%) and Türkiye (28.6%) are the only G20 members projected to post double-digit inflation in 2026, while every other member stays below 6%.

Russia is next at 5.6%, then India at 4.7%, with the US and UK both at 3.2%. China sits last at 1.2%.

The striking part is how far the outliers have fallen: Argentina was at 220% in 2024 and Türkiye 58%, both hauled down by aggressive stabilisation.

Still painfully high, but the direction is what matters. When 30% counts as a triumph, you get a sense of just how deep the hole was.

4. Market Overview

S&P 500 (U.S.) Fell this week. Tech did the damage, a weak outlook from Broadcom dragged down the AI names and money rotated out of growth into healthcare, financials and real estate. Add in nerves over the jobs report and a US-Iran ceasefire that's holding but going nowhere on the talks, and the index couldn't hang on.

FTSE 100 (UK) Basically flat. Pulled lower midweek by the same global chip selloff, but its thin tech exposure meant it barely flinched.

S&P/TSX Composite (Canada) Flat. Energy and gold miners held it up with oil staying firm and bullion holding its ground, but materials wobbled and the broader risk-off mood out of Wall Street stopped any move.

ASX 200 (Australia) Down on the week. A soft Q1 GDP print had people betting the RBA's done hiking, which gave miners and BHP a midweek boost, but it couldn't last, the global tech slump and a cautious tone pulled the index back by Friday.

🇺🇸 United States – S&P 500

• High: 7,618

• Low: 7,498

🇬🇧 UK - FTSE 100

• High: 10,414

• Low: 10,242

🇨🇦 Canada – TSX Composite

• High: 35,291

• Low: 34,515

🇦🇺 Australia – ASX 200

• High: 8,807

• Low: 8,625

Cryptocurrency:

• Bitcoin (BTC): -16.7%

• Ethereum (ETH): -19.7%

• Tether (USDT): 0.1%

• BNB (BNB): -8.0%

• USDC (USDC): 0.0%

• XRP (XRP): -14.7%

• Solana (SOL): -14.7%

• TRON (TRX): -6.2%

• Figure Heloc (FIGR_HELOC): -1.3%

• Hyperliquid (HYPE): -0.6%

Metals Market:

Gold–Silver Ratio: ~63:1, Went up this week, so gold pulled ahead of silver. With the US-Iran ceasefire still wobbly and everyone playing it safe, people piled into gold for the safety while silver kind of got left behind because of its industrial side.

Gold & Silver:

• Gold: Rose -3.74% with a Week High: $4,595 & Week Low: $4,349

• Silver: Fell -7.45% with a Week High: $77.03 & Week Low: $68.83

5. Faith & Success

Summer is almost here… and with it, the annual flood of "opportunities."

You know the ones I mean... The messages from someone you haven't spoken to in years who "just thought of you" because of this incredible investment they've discovered. Or the group chat that has suddenly come alive because someone's brother-in-law has a "can't miss" stock tip…

I know, because these things used to happen to me every Summer too… and I fell for them over and over again when I was younger and less financially savvy than I am now. In fact the worst one was when I got into a ponzi scheme where “Neil, all you have to do is click these adverts every day, and your money doubles every 30 days” - only after you put in an initial ‘investment’ of $1,000 of course…

And here's the thing - I'm not judging anyone for being tempted by these. I've fallen for most of them myself over the years! But as I keep trying to remind everyone - there’s no such thing as a free lunch. I’ve spent close to 20 years now studying all these make money schemes.

And you actually get the net result of all of my failures.

But get this… When you're working hard, watching the needle move slowly, seeing your bank account drain due to high inflation… the idea of a shortcut is genuinely appealing. But this is where the scammers get you.

I can’t tell you the amount of times that I used to have people come on 1 on 1 calls with me every evening asking for my opinion on their BIG investment… which after a little investigation I discover is actually a scam.

The worst I saw was a couple who were in the early 50’s, 10 years away from retiring… They had pulled out every last penny of their savings, sold their house, car, emptied their pension - you name it, they liquidated it.

At first I was almost fooled because they logged into their dashboard live over Zoom with me. And as I asked them to look around for me, I could genuinely see the deposits every month. I was shocked. Honestly, I just couldn’t figure it out. How could this scheme pay 50% interest every month, it just didn’t make sense.

Then I asked them to click the withdrawal button and pull out just £10,000 - they said they can’t do that or it will reset their interest level back to 5% again and they will need to build it up for 9 more weeks to get to 50% again.

I asked if they had ever pulled anything out, they said no - of course… and now I got it.

I said “I will refund the price of this session right here and now if you click that withdrawal button and it pays out… Because I know that it won’t let you”. They seemed shocked, but they did it.

And guess what, it said that they could not cash out due not having been with the platform for long enough. It was a scam. A very sophisticated multi layered scam that hit every psychological layer of the human psyche… but a scam all the same.

Yet, I helped them to get all their money out, and fast (without any of the so called commissions).

Not long after this, they wanted to thank me with a very large payment, they said if they hadn’t gotten their money out, their life wouldn’t have been worth living.

I obviously said no to the payment, but the message really struck a chord with me, because I realised just how traumatic it is when people get scammed of their life savings and the terrible consequences. In fact, I’ll share how bad it got…

A few months later they emailed me and said the other couple who got them into the ponzi scheme lost everything - they just wouldn’t believe it was a scam and in the end, they got completely wiped out. The husband of their friend is no longer with us…

And this verse cuts straight to the heart of why…

"Dishonest money dwindles away…" - it doesn't matter how convincing the pitch is, or how legitimate it looks on your screen. Money that arrives through shortcuts, hype, or "systems" that nobody can quite explain clearly or verify (or let you cash out of)… has a way of disappearing just as fast as it arrived.

But the second part of this verse is the bit that restores my hope; it doesn't just warn you off the quick win - it actually gives you the alternative: little by little.

Not very exciting I know…

But that’s what I teach. Not super exciting, slow, BUT… gets you successful over the long term, by living a life you love and can feel proud of.

The most genuinely wealthy people I know, got there through consistency. Through saying no to the distractions and by understanding that compounding is one of the most powerful forces in the universe, but it requires patience to actually work.

The slow path is the fast path, building something real. It just doesn't feel like it at the time when you want a shortcut.

Have a brilliant week my friend!

Take care, and God Bless.

Neil,

Digital Income Mastery (Admissions Closing in July): LINK

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DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is 100% FREE & is designed to help your thinking, not direct it. These newsletters shall NOT be construed as tax, legal, or financial advice and may be outdated or inaccurate; all decisions made as a result of this information are yours alone.

Trading/Liability: Neil McCoy-Ward operates/trades under a private Ltd company within the Isle of Man.

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