Your IMPORTANT Weekly Briefing: (4th July 2025)

The Neil McCoy-Ward Newsletter

July 04, 2025

Opening Note…

Welcome back to this week’s newsletter!

And a HUGE Happy 4th Of July! I’m certainly wearing my USA hat today as I write this newsletter. I do hope all of my American readers have a truly wonderful and blessed day.

And although I don’t celebrate freedom exactly how you would in the US today with fireworks and a barbecue; I do support the holiday and what it represents. I am, in fact, passionate about freedom.

There are a lot of people who say that freedom is difficult or not worth striving for, especially when it comes to financial freedom. I disagree. I believe that YOU can achieve your version of personal freedom, financial freedom, and independence! That was always my dream, and it took a while - but I achieved it.

Now my purpose is to help you reach your own level of freedom, without being a slave to the system… If you have been a regular follower, you get it…

So to celebrate with you this holiday, AND move you closer to your goal of financial independence, I am holding a HUGE blow out sale. I’m also excited to announce a BRAND NEW BUNDLE! This is the culmination of 7 of my top courses, which are designed to help you achieve your vision of freedom…

This massive sale is available for 24 hours only, so don’t delay!

Let's now break down the most relevant stories from around the globe...

Table of Contents

1. Weekly Spotlight

Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” Passes Senate, but the Debt Storm Has Been Brewing

President Trump’s new tax-and-spending bill, after over 8 hours of debate, passed the Senate. As you can imagine, the political backlash is going to be quite something. Don’t you find it interesting that they chose the July 4th holiday to vote - when the markets would be closed? Concerns over America’s long-term debt health have been building for months, and we have already seen investors quietly repositioning:

  • Tens of Billion have exited long-term U.S. Treasuries, a trend that’s been accelerating since early this year (watch my video today for for depth on this)

  • Over $39 billion has moved into short-term government debt, as markets grow uneasy about inflation and runaway spending.

  • The US Dollar has lost 10.8% of it’s value just since the 1st January this year!

  • And this is just scratching the surface…

At the same time, the real economy is softening. Q1 GDP was revised down sharply to a 0.5% contraction, driven by weaker consumer spending and slowing exports. This is the culmination of months of mounting debt risk. We are seeing that bond markets and the economy are showing some real signs of strain.

2. Quick Takes

Here are the top stories shaping the week:

  • Trump’s Tariffs Are Generating Record Revenue Without Fueling Inflation
    A new report reveals that Trump’s tariff policies have produced record government revenues without triggering the inflation many feared.

  • Trump’s Vietnam Deal Targets Transshipping

    The new trade agreement includes 20% tariffs and a 40% tax on rerouted goods, a direct warning to China and an effort to restore U.S. industrial dominance.

  • The private sector lost 33,000 jobs in June, badly missing expectations for a 100,000 increase

    June saw 147,000 U.S. jobs added, but nearly half were in state and local government. Private-sector growth was weak, and manufacturing declined. A falling labour force masked unemployment levels. Federal layoffs continued. Overall, job gains reflect public hiring, not broad economic strength, highlighting a fragile, policy-distorted labour market.

  • Microsoft is laying off ‘9,000’ employees in the latest round of cuts
    Microsoft is laying off about 9,000 employees, nearly 4% of its global workforce, as part of a broader organisational restructuring. This is happening despite strong financial performance and record-high stock prices.

  • China Pushes Back on Spy Allegations
    Beijing condemned the West’s recent “spy hysteria” and accused the U.S. of fueling paranoia. Officials vowed to defend Chinese nationals abroad from what they call political targeting.

  • EU Retreats From Climate Leadership With 2040 Target Proposal
    The EU’s new emissions draft weakens previous ambitions, signalling a shift from aggressive climate goals. France appears to be driving the retreat due to energy security concerns.

  • Europe’s Green Energy Stocks Surge
    A softened U.S. climate bill unexpectedly boosted European clean energy firms, as investors bet on more balanced regulations and profitable green infrastructure.

  • Miliband plots garden wind farm revolution

    Ed Miliband plans to ease rules to let more UK homeowners and businesses install small wind turbines without planning permission, aiming to double onshore wind capacity by 2030.

  • Jeremy Corbyn forms new (far-left?) party
    A new political party has been formed as an alternative to Labour, aiming to champion anti-poverty, social justice, and peace-focused policies. Zarah Sultana has quit Labour to co-lead the group alongside Jeremy Corbyn.

NEIL’S TAKEAWAYS:

In the United States
While holiday gas prices dropped to a 4-year low (offering a brief sense of relief), new data shows that America’s economy is losing steam. Despite what the headlines say about job increases, private-sector hiring fell for the first time in over a year, and consumer spending is now in retreat. But despite the negative data, asset prices are rising, and there’s a good reason for that. Data for May has been released on the M2 money supply, showing a 2.1% jump the fastest growth since early 2022. That kind of cash injection tends to find its way into assets. So, while economic indicators are bad, stocks and other asset classes are being propped up by a fresh wave of liquidity entering the system. However, it's not all a disaster waiting to happen. Trump’s aggressive trade deals, including the latest one with Vietnam, are pulling in record revenue without triggering the inflation many economists had warned about. In fact, the Fed’s own timeline for rate cuts is being pushed back, in part because tariffs are actually working. I think we are truly beginning to see whether the idea that globalisation is necessary for prosperity holds up.

Research This Week:

  • Pay attention on two fronts:

    The consumer slowdown and the trade revenue boom. If this continues, we may be entering a new economic model, more nationalist, more production-focused, and less reliant on foreign supply chains.

  • The liquidity injection from the M2 money supply has the potential to raise asset prices along with it.

Across Europe
The much-anticipated EU–US trade deal is officially stalled. EU President Ursula von der Leyen recently stated that striking a full agreement by Trump’s July 9 deadline is “impossible.” Negotiators are now scrambling to deliver just an “agreement in principle.” The €1.5 trillion transatlantic relationship is more strained and complex than its leaders are willing to admit. At the same time, consumer confidence in Germany is slipping again, which is an issue for the rest of the EU. While Germany has been in industrial decline for some time, it remains extremely important to the EU economy. The auto sector, which Germany is known for, adds further pressure. Tesla’s sales in Europe continue to tumble, while Chinese automakers are rapidly gaining ground. The EU tried tariffs, but they didn’t work. Now, Europe’s industrial base is being outcompeted on its own turf, highlighting just how vulnerable current trade and industrial policies really are.

Research This Week:

  • The trade breakdown with the U.S. and softening consumer data

  • Be cautious with eurozone exposure, especially in consumer and manufacturing sectors.

On the Global Stage
In Asia, momentum is building: Japan’s factories are expanding, India’s manufacturing is surging, and China’s PMI is back in growth territory. There is a strong push among countries to bring manufacturing back home. Meanwhile, The UN is calling for a $4 trillion aid initiative to “turn the world around.” The UN was founded on the principles of globalisation, but many of the actions countries are now taking run counter to that vision. What seems more likely is that major economies will continue building parallel systems, such as the BRICS currency and bilateral trade pacts that bypass the dollar. While the West debates policy, the East is designing new infrastructure.

Research This Week:

  • The emerging trade alliances in Asia and Latin America, and who is decoupling from the West?

  • Where capital is flowing post-tariffs and how it’s reshaping manufacturing power?

  • The rise of regional settlement systems and what they mean for U.S. dollar dominance?

3. Important Video of The Week

🚨 The Hidden Truth Nobody Is Talking About…
 Watch the Full Video On Youtube

4. Chart of the Week

Prediction Consensus: 2025 Midyear Update

The Prediction Consensus is an aggregation of everything that experts predict for the year ahead.

As we’re halfway through 2025 now, let’s see how these predictions are holding up. From Trump’s friendships and feuds to geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility, many expert predictions have already come true…

5. Market Overview

The S&P 500 hit new record highs this week, closing near 6,280 as optimism around tariffs, earnings, and easing inflation supported markets. In the UK, the FTSE 100 briefly reached 8,828 before slipping amid political uncertainty around Chancellor Reeves. Canada’s TSX Composite closed at a fresh high of 27,034, showing steady movement on the back of strong sector performance. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 rallied in the 8,590–8,600 range, driven by mining and real estate, making it one of the strongest global performers.

🇺🇸 United States – S&P 500

  • High: 6,282.84

  • Low: 6,179.61

🇬🇧 UK - FTSE 100

  • High: 8,835.65

  • Low: 8,727.45

🇨🇦 Canada – TSX Composite

  • High: 27,035.84

  • Low: 26,671.17

🇦🇺 Australia – ASX 200

  • High: 8,616.00

  • Low: 8,526.30

Cryptocurrency:

Trend:

  • Bitcoin (BTC): Up 1.8% this week, holding above $108,800 with steady institutional demand.

  • Ethereum (ETH): Up 6.0%, trading at $2,545.78

  • XRP: Gained 7.0%, showing consistent strength from regulatory clarity.

  • BNB: Rose 3.2%

  • Solana (SOL): Up 5.6%,

  • Dogecoin (DOGE): Up 3.7%,

  • Tether (USDT): Flat at $1.00

  • USDC: Also stable at $0.9998

  • TRON (TRX): Gained 5.5%, continuing its slow climb in Asia-driven markets.

  • Lido Staked Ether (stETH): Up 5.8%.

Metals Market:

Gold Silver Ratio:

Gold:

  • Trading between $3,330–$3,355/oz this week, closing near $3,344 a ~2.2% weekly gain.

  • Supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, central bank demand, and uncertainty over tariffs and fiscal policy.

  • Analysts foresee a volatile range with long-term upside if inflation trends downward. Caution is warranted: gold looks slightly overbought short-term and may pull back if U.S. jobs data surprises.

Silver:

  • Holding near $37.15/oz, up modestly after a strong June rally.

  • Silver continues to outperform gold thanks to industrial demand and a high gold/silver ratio.

  • Bullish momentum remains, and a breakout looks possible if it holds above $37.25 in the coming days.

Neil’s Summary:

This week’s markets reflect a strange calm. The S&P 500 hit record highs, driven by tariff optimism and cooling inflation, while job market cracks are starting to show beneath the surface. Gold is holding strong, but looks overheated short-term. Silver remains the performer, with rising momentum and industrial demand keeping it in breakout territory. Since I wrote about the opportunity with the Gold to Silver ratio last month, many people have emailed in to say they made a good profit on the tip.

Prepare accordingly. The winners in this cycle will be those who build wisely during the transition.

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6. Faith & Success

“Whoever watches the wind will not plant; whoever looks at the clouds will not reap.” — Ecclesiastes 11:4

Waiting for the perfect moment is the fastest path to staying stuck. Those who sit back, watching for ideal conditions, never move. They never build or reap. They just wait. But success requires action, especially when things feel uncertain.

Most breakthroughs don’t happen when everything feels ready. They happen when you step up and commit.

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Closing Thoughts 💬

As I look out across the sea of financial and economic data hitting my desk today, I can only sit back and say “wow” - it’s just non stop. AND it seems to be getting worse by the day. I think we are very close to (if not already) in a recession. Of course, you won’t hear this on the news… they are just pumping out story after story about how strong the economy is.

If it does transpire that we are in a recession soon, I will write again with guidance and advice as to how to navigate it. But in the meantime, really look at your current personal situation, in particular your financial situation.

Do you need to pay down debt? Do you need to raise your credit rating? Have you got enough savings? Have you got enough cash flow coming in monthly from multiple streams of income? Or are you in the majority with only one stream of income that could possibly be replaced by AI?

These are all of the questions I want you to ponder upon as you finish reading my email today.

And if you did make it all the way to the end, congratulations, you're one of the committed few. Thank you.

To Your Success In Business & Life,

See you next time,

Your Friend,

Neil,

DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is 100% FREE & is designed to help your thinking, not direct it. These newsletters shall NOT be construed as tax, legal, or financial advice and may be outdated or inaccurate; all decisions made as a result of this information are yours alone.

Trading/Liability: Neil McCoy-Ward operates/trades under a private Ltd company within the Isle of Man.