Your IMPORTANT Weekly Briefing: (3rd October 2025)

The Neil McCoy-Ward Newsletter

October 03, 2025

Opening Note…

Welcome back to this week’s newsletter!

Before writing today’s newsletter, I was recording the Monthly Macro Investment video for my private community on Patreon. It really was a good video I recorded today with lots of updates on the World. If you’re not a member there, this would be a good opportunity today to get started: LINK

Now let's break down the latest...

Table of Contents

1. Weekly Spotlight

The US Government Shutdown Has Begun… (Again)

Yet again, the U.S. federal government has shut down right after the clock struck 12:01a.m. on Wednesday, October 1st. Congress couldn’t agree on a short-term funding bill, so agencies were told to start an “orderly shutdown” while we all wait for a deal.

In essence: When the government has to vote on a spending bill and it does not get approved, parts of the government pause. In this case, we’re seeing:

  • Federal workers being furloughed (though some will keep working without pay because their jobs are considered essential).

  • Courts tapping fee balances to stay open for a bit (at most a couple of weeks).

  • Social Security is keeping core services running, but warns of delays and reduced support.

That’s the immediate thing people feel first.

Looking at it more politically, the Democrats practically handed Trump a shutdown Gift. With Russ Vought at his side, he’s now lining up which “Democrat agencies” to axe, some maybe for good. Already, $18 billion in New York projects got iced over “unconstitutional DEI principles,” and Maryland is bracing for cuts too. Trump is gleeful on Truth Social, saying it’s the perfect moment to clear out “dead wood, waste, and fraud.” The democrats, who probably thought they could disrupt Trumps plan, are instead handing Trump the ability to slash budgets and jobs. And with a $37.5 trillion debt hanging over everything, most Americans aren’t upset over any government downsizes.

I’m also watching the effect on the economy. The numbers say that for every week of shutdown, this will shave roughly $15 billion off GDP. And a month-long standoff could mean tens of thousands more people out of work.

A common mistake people make is thinking, Oh, I don’t work for the government, so it shouldn't affect me too much. The part people forget is that the government is the biggest employer in the U.S., with nearly 3 million employees. This affects the paychecks of federal workers and contractors that ripple into local shops and services, so many can see the pinch even if they don’t work in government. If flights slow down because unpaid staff call in sick, you feel it at the airport. If a benefit office is running on a skeleton crew, you spend more time in line or on hold. And every extra week raises the odds that markets start charging the U.S. a bit more to borrow, which filters back into mortgage rates and car loans over time.

What could happen next depends on how quickly things settle on a temporary funding patch. Agencies have their pause plans running already, and some, like the courts, can only bridge things for a couple of weeks before their cushion runs out. If leaders land a stopgap bill soon, most things will snap back with ‘back pay’.

2. Quick Takes

Here are the top stories shaping the week:

  • US to Support Ukraine With Intelligence for Long-Range Strikes on Russia: Washington will, for the first time, provide Ukraine with intelligence to guide long-range missile attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. Kyiv has requested help in hitting refineries, pipelines and power stations to choke off Moscow’s oil revenues. The US is also weighing a Ukrainian plea for Tomahawk missiles, capable of striking Moscow itself, though no decision has been made. Donald Trump, after meeting Zelensky in New York, publicly backed Ukraine’s bid to reclaim all its occupied territory. Quite the statement to make. He has pressed allies such as India and Turkey to cut Russian crude purchases. Moscow, meanwhile, has reportedly tweaked its missiles to outmanoeuvre US-supplied Patriot defences, raising concerns about Ukraine’s protection. 

  • Pentagon urges contractors to double output: The U.S. Defence Department is pushing defence contractors to double or even quadruple production of 12 key weapons systems. With the main concerns over munitions shortages and potential conflict with China. Priority weapons include Patriot missiles, anti-ship and air-to-surface missiles.

  • OpenAI Readies TikTok-Style App Powered Only By AI Videos: OpenAI is developing a standalone social media app powered by its new Sora 2 video model. The app appears to resemble TikTok, but features only AI-generated clips under 10 seconds. Users can’t actually upload personal videos, but may use their likeness, which can be tagged or remixed. As you might expect, copyright protections are limited, requiring rights holders to opt out. Talent agencies can flag specific content but not exclude entire catalogues.
    It’s quite scary how fast this is moving now…

  • Kier Starmer To Scrap Automatic Family Reunion Rights For Refugees: Keir Starmer is unveiling a major tightening of asylum rules, scrapping refugees’ automatic rights to bring family to the UK and ending the guarantee of permanent settlement after five years. Instead, asylum recipients will have to prove they contribute to society, through work, volunteering, financial independence and clean records, before qualifying for settlement or family reunification. The Home Office says the move will stop the UK from being seen as a “soft touch” and reduce crossings.
    Is this really going to make any difference to the boat crossings? No, I don’t think so; most people on the boats are men in their 20s.

  • France sees major protests over next year's budget: Protesters marched through French cities on Thursday over sharp spending cuts planned in next year’s budget. Demonstrators demanded more investment in public services, reversal of the retirement age hike and higher taxes on the wealthy, warning Emmanuel Macron’s new prime minister, Sébastien Lecornu, not to follow his ousted predecessor’s austerity path. But looking at the numbers, France’s deficit hit 5.8% of GDP last year, nearly double the EU’s ceiling, not exactly leaving much room for them to do anything but cut.  

  • Wind Turbines Cost the UK £1Billion this year just to keep them off: The UK has spent over £1 billion in 2025 paying wind farms to shut down due to electricity grid congestion, a practice known as "curtailment." These costs are passed on to consumers because surplus wind power can't be transmitted from remote areas; it’s estimated that it added around £15 to each household bill. This undermines Energy Secretary Ed Miliband’s plan to expand wind power as part of the net-zero goal. Opposition parties and unions have labelled his strategy unrealistic and costly, and are instead pushing for fracking, nuclear, and natural gas.
    The fact that the whole framing of this by Miliband was that it would lower the costs of energy to households, and we have the complete opposite effect, blows my mind. How can people now see this? It’s baffling.

  • Moldova’s Pro-EU Party Wins Election Amid Opposition Crackdown: Moldovan President Maia Sandu’s Party of Action and Solidarity (I think you can already guess what they stand for) has secured a majority in parliament with just over 50% of the vote, far ahead of the Patriotic Bloc on 24%, according to near-final results. However, part of the reason for winning is the banning of two opposition parties who favoured ties outside of the EU. Western leaders hailed the result with Ursula von der Leyen praised Moldova’s “choice for Europe,” while Zelensky and Tusk cast it as a defeat for Russian influence.
    How very democratic of them, by banning the opposition parties, they were almost the only choice left?

  • Germany Eyes Axing Marriage Tax Break To Plug €170bn Deficit: Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil (SPD party) is pushing to abolish Germany’s long-standing “marriage splitting” tax benefit, presenting it as a fix for a projected €170 billion deficit by 2029. Backed by estimates from the DIW think tank, which says ending the scheme could raise €20–25 billion annually. With federal revenues already growing rapidly, €440.6 billion in 2024 and accelerating this year.

  • US Cancels $7.6bn in Energy Projects Approved Under Biden: The US Department of Energy has scrapped $7.6 billion in funding for 223 previously approved energy projects, saying they lacked economic viability and offered no clear benefits for Americans. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said more than a quarter of the cancellations were contracts that were rushed through between the 2024 election and Trump’s inauguration, with poor documentation. There was an earlier round of cancellations this year, including a $3.7 billion package that featured an Exxon low-carbon hydrogen project. 

NEIL’S TAKEAWAYS:

In the United States
The government shutdown carries real costs. A White House memo estimates the economy could lose $15 billion in GDP every week the government stays closed, and if the fight drags into a month, another 43,000 people could be pushed into unemployment. Stocks this week were mixed as tech and semiconductor names got a temporary boost from an OpenAI–Korea chip agreement, and gold surged to new record highs as investors have begun to seek safety. 

Beyond the shutdown, Wall Street is watching closely as major banks push for looser capital requirements. If regulators follow through, it means profitability could improve in the short term, but the long-term risk to financial stability would rise. At the same time, the administration is quietly pursuing deals in up to 30 industries considered vital to national or economic security. This will likely have an effect on those stocks.

Prepare: The uncertainty we are seeing isn’t limited to a shutdown. Fiscal fights, regulatory shifts, and government intervention in key industries are all going to have an effect. Build cash reserves, reduce reliance on debt, and position yourself defensively. Pay attention to where government priorities are looking; those industries may see short-term gains, but it’s also where volatility will be highest.

Across Europe
European markets saw the STOXX 600 and other major indices hit record highs. This was mostly fueled by strength in the chip sector and growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will soon begin cutting rates.

The ECB is warning that Europe may be easing bank securitisation rules too much. It says that allowing complex and hard-to-understand financial products could bring back risks that the financial system isn’t ready to handle.

Prepare: With European markets surging, don’t make the age-old mistake of buying what's already gone up. Investors should be cautious about chasing momentum and instead focus on fundamentals. Pay attention to financial stability signals from the ECB since they will shape confidence in Europe’s markets over the months ahead.

On the Global Stage
Global markets rose this week, mostly around central bank easing, strength in AI and tech, and rising expectations that China will loosen policy to support growth. The MSCI global equity index picked up momentum even as the U.S. deals with a government shutdown.

We are seeing interesting changes in the commodity markets. Oil prices slid toward four-month lows, due to oversupply concerns and weak demand. At the same time, there is a lot of volatility in the energy space from the G7 pledging to target entities that still purchase Russian oil.

Prepare: Stay flexible. Keep cash available, spread risks across different regions, and don’t rely too much on big one-way market bets. Since trade rules, sanctions, and central bank policies can change quickly, strength comes from having options and diversification.

3. Opportunity Of The Week… Rapid Cashflow Builder

Back by popular demand… learn to build your own multiple streams of income. Fire your boss and work for yourself! Create high-value ideas from the comfort of your own home, all online and digital. Create and Sell digital assets easily. 3 courses in 1 powerful package, and for a ridiculously low price! Get started today… (LINK)

In The Rapid Cashflow Builder, you’ll learn how to:

  • Build a safety net on your terms – so a missed paycheck or unexpected layoff doesn’t leave you scrambling.

  • Generate extra cash quickly – with practical methods you can start using in weeks, not years.

  • Stay ahead of change – from automation to inflation, you’ll discover how to adapt before others even notice the shift.

  • Grow without big risks – this isn’t about gambling savings or chasing fads; it’s about steady, real-world strategies anyone can apply.

The economy will always swing up and down, but your ability to create income doesn’t have to.

4. Chart Of The Week: From 1980 to 2024, A Look at Federal Spending.

Since 1980, U.S. federal spending has nearly tripled in real terms, climbing from about $2.3 trillion to $6.8 trillion. The steepest increases have come from Social Security, which has more than tripled to become the single largest budget item, and net interest payments, which have surged over fourfold and now outpace Medicare. Defence and foreign affairs spending has also grown in absolute terms, but its relative share of the budget has shrunk as entitlement programs and debt servicing consume a far greater slice of government spending.

5. Market Overview

Despite the shutdown, U.S. markets pushed to record highs from optimism over potential rate cuts. All three major U.S. indexes posted weekly gains. In the U.K., stocks enjoyed a strong run, with the FTSE hitting intraday highs, particularly led by pharmaceutical and healthcare names amid regulatory and policy movements. Canada’s market also showed strength, supported by momentum in commodity names and optimism over economic conditions. Australia underperformed, held back by weaker inflation and employment data. In Asia, performance was mixed: Japan rallied (helped by tech), while Hong Kong and parts of China suffered pullbacks amid profit taking and geopolitical concerns

🇺🇸 United States – S&P 500

  • High: 6,728.53

  • Low: 6,643.33

🇬🇧 UK - FTSE 100

  • High: 9,486.18

  • Low: 9,267.62

🇨🇦 Canada – TSX Composite

  • High: 30,178.06

  • Low: 29,837.79

🇦🇺 Australia – ASX 200

  • High: 8,991.20

  • Low: 8,810.70

Cryptocurrency:

  • Bitcoin (BTC): 9.7%

  • Ethereum (ETH): 13.7%

  • XRP (XRP): 10.1%

  • Tether (USDT): 0.0%

  • BNB (BNB): 17.1%

  • Solana (SOL): 17.8%

  • USDC (USDC): 0.0%

  • Dogecoin (DOGE): 13.2%

  • Lido Staked Ether (STETH): 13.8%

  • TRON (TRX): 2.5%

Chart:

Metals Market:

Gold Silver Ratio: 81.5 (This Still Favours Silver)

Gold & Silver:

  • Gold: traded as high as about $3,896.49 per ounce, with support nearer $3,859.09 as it stayed elevated all week.

  • Silver: reached roughly $48.13 per ounce during the week (almost creating a new All Time High). I talk about both the ‘Silver Squeeze’ & the price explosion in today’s video as well as a post from last week on Patreon.

Neil’s Investor Takeaways:

Markets have been running hot, but the key is spotting what’s real versus what’s just hype. Right now, money is flowing into areas like energy, security, and new tech, but that doesn’t mean everything in those spaces is worth buying. Look for companies that can actually keep their margins strong and have some policy support behind them. This isn’t the time to chase what’s already spiked; it’s about slowly building positions where you see lasting strength. If you want to learn more about macroeconomics, check out my Patreon. This is where I just posted a one-hour breakdown of the markets and all things macro that isn’t available on YouTube. Sign up by visiting my page: LINK

6. Faith & Success

"Commit your work to the Lord, and your plans will be established." — Proverbs 16:3

Every goal, every project, every investment begins in the mind and heart before it shows up via results in our physical outward reality. We often carry the burden of success on our own shoulders, forgetting that God has already laid out a path for us. When you put Him first and surrender your efforts to His will for your life, you gain clarity and peace that money cannot buy. The struggle also stops, because we can often be fighting an uphill battle against what has already been ordained for our lives.

Reflection: Take a quiet moment today to ask yourself: Am I in a season of struggle? If so, why? Do I need to be going through this struggle? Is this a test of my character, or am I causing this stress in my life through my own actions?

The reason I ask you to reflect upon this question (or series of questions)… is because I was going through this myself recently. For background, I was looking to expand my media team so I could be on more platforms at once and put out more content…

BUT, everything I did just seemed to be a huge struggle. Nothing was working, everything became difficult. Training people to work alongside me was very hard work and stressful. Taking on and dealing with other people’s lives also became too much.

Finally, I had to stop and ask myself if this was what I wanted for my life? And the answer was “no” - I just couldn't see the point in building a team to get out more content and grow my socials and outreach… the times I've been happiest, is when I've been 100% responsible for my own media output. That means writing, recording, editing and posting when I want to post. Not on a set schedule and with deadlines.

I also realised that no one else can replicate what I do. I’ve been blessed with a unique perspective on how I view things. When other people try to replicate that, it simply doesn’t work. This is why I made the decision very quickly to go back to doing things the way I've always done them. Just me, putting out courses, Patreon posts (to help people make & protect their money), Videos & writing my newsletter…

Maybe reflect on this for yourself today.

See you next time,

God Bless,

Neil,

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DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is 100% FREE & is designed to help your thinking, not direct it. These newsletters shall NOT be construed as tax, legal, or financial advice and may be outdated or inaccurate; all decisions made as a result of this information are yours alone.

Trading/Liability: Neil McCoy-Ward operates/trades under a private Ltd company within the Isle of Man.