Your IMPORTANT Weekly Briefing: (3rd July 2026)

The Neil McCoy-Ward Newsletter

July 03, 2026

Opening Note…

Welcome back.

And I want to start by wishing all of my American readers a Happy 4th July! Just think where your Country would be now had your forefathers not broken away from the British! My goodness!

As for me, these are my last couple of days here in Asia, and I’ll be heading back to the Isle Of Man this weekend.

I’m very much looking forward to getting home. With all the ongoing renovations, I’ve spent a lot less time at home this year than I would have liked… and I really do want to just get back.

Oh and if you missed it, I posted the latest castle update video to the Patreon on Wednesday AND I posted the monthly macro investment video yesterday with my investment spreadsheet. Just click the images and it will take you to the Patreon page.

Table of Contents

1. Weekly Spotlight

Sintra 2026: The New Fed Chair Breaks From Trump

Every summer the world's most powerful central bankers gather in Sintra, Portugal, for the ECB's annual forum. Think Davos, but for the people who actually control the money (fewer billionaires, more grey suits).

Kevin Warsh, who took over as Fed Chair in May made his first big appearance at sintra.

Now cast your mind back... Trump wants cheap credit, because cheap credit creates a boom, and a boom is good politics (plus it makes the $38 trillion debt bill cheaper to service), but that's another story for another day…

Warsh was Trump's own pick; when he campaigned for the job last year, he talked up lower rates. So Trump assumed he'd got himself a loyal soldier there.

But it now seems that Warsh has other plans after stepping off the benches and now seeing the reality on the field…

I think he was pretty blunt about it as well: “anyone expecting the Fed to tolerate inflation above 2% will be disappointed” he said, because the Fed is going to deliver ‘price stability’.

And on Trump pushing for cuts, he was blunter still - saying the Fed has been independent a very long time, and there'd be no changes to that. Yikes!

US inflation hit 4.2% in May, the highest in three years. Warsh's whole message was that killing inflation comes first, even if that means holding rates high instead.

And the markets got the memo instantly, the odds of a hike this month shot to roughly one-in-three. Stocks wobbled (initially) and the Japanese yen slid to a 40-year low against the dollar (this is really bad).

There was a second theme that was talked about as well… AI. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned about credit piling up in bond markets, hedge funds and private credit, and flagged that AI trading bots could turbo-charge the next crash.

And Lagarde made a statement I found pretty interesting, that Europe and America are "hostage to each other" on AI. Europe has no frontier tech giants of its own, yet it makes up a quarter of those American giants' revenue (which they want to tax) - she feels that taxation is ‘more equitable’ (give me a break).

So what do you watch for next?

I think a hike is a real possibility this year, maybe even two. If oil prices keep falling, Warsh might get to sit still and claim victory without lifting a finger. But if they don't, he's already told you what he'll do.

2. Quick Takes

Here are the other top stories shaping the week:

  • Trump Has War Plans On His Desk But Is Betting On Diplomacy With Iran

    Trump has been briefed on options for restarting all-out war with Iran, a plan some officials call "finishing the job," but he'd rather stick with talks since fresh strikes would derail any nuclear deal. Iran has refused direct meetings and is warning Washington to "muzzle its pets in Tel Aviv" or face retaliation. With the track record constantly changing from talks to war I wouldn't be surprised if this could tip back into open fighting very soon

  • Russia Is Now Buying Petrol From India, The Same Country It Sells Oil To

    Ukrainian drone strikes have battered Russia's refineries so badly that one of the world's biggest oil exporters is now importing petrol from India to cope with rationing and record pump prices. India has already sent 60,000 tonnes, with Russia wanting 400,000 a month. The irony is India buys Russian crude, refines it, and sells the finished fuel straight back! As ironic as this is… this is terrible for the global energy supply at a time when it’s already been rattled.

  • We'll Need To Mine More Copper By 2050 Than In All Of Human History

    AI demand could hit 42 million tonnes by 2040 with a 10 million tonne shortfall, because nobody has built new mines. Copper has nearly doubled to $6.20 a pound, and after 30 years of underinvestment - a shortage within five years is looking unavoidable. (A new mine takes 18 years just fyi.) The US imports over half its copper so higher prices already look to be locked in

  • Meta Is Selling Its Spare AI Computing Power, And That Spooked The Whole Chip Sector

    Meta is renting out its excess AI computing capacity, dragging the Nasdaq lower and hammering Amazon, Oracle, Microsoft, Nvidia and Micron, even as its own shares jumped 8.6%. The whole boom rests on the belief that computing power is scarce. But if one of the biggest spenders has so much spare it's leasing it out, and SpaceX just did the same, that contradicts it. It hints the spending spree may have overshot real demand

  • Samsung And SK Hynix Just Cratered, Dragging Korea's Market Down With Them

    The same AI nerves hit Asia hard. Samsung dropped over 7% and SK Hynix sank more than 9% after a brutal night for US chip stocks. The two now make up roughly half the Korean market, so the whole index fell nearly 4% with them. It came days after Korea's 800 trillion won chip plan and just before SK Hynix lists on the Nasdaq coming up on July 10th

  • Google Just Lost Its Fight Over A €4.1 Billion EU Fine

    Europe's top court upheld the record antitrust fine against Google, ruling that it illegally used Android to crush rivals by forcing phone makers to pre-install Search, Chrome and the Play store. The penalty was trimmed slightly to €4.1 billion, but the substance stands, capping a case running since 2015. Google has now racked up over €8 billion in EU fines - but will they pay them?

  • Brits Just Had The Biggest Wealth Wipeout In The Rich World

    The average Briton is over £28,500 poorer than in 2020, a 23% drop in real wealth and the worst fall of any of the 37 rich countries UBS surveyed, worse even than Turkey, Bulgaria and Kazakhstan. The typical adult now holds about £95,500 in assets, which leaves us slightly ahead of the French but behind the Dutch and Italians. And while ordinary Brits went backwards, global billionaire wealth jumped 25% on the AI and tech boom… but don’t worry - the new Prime Minister said he’s got a plan to fix this and make the Country rich again from the top to the bottom (just don’t ask him what that plan is!) Sure he has a plan, politicians always say that, but never really have a plan to back it up… talk is cheap, delivery is more difficult. 

Attention all students: Modules 9 and 10 of Digital Income Sales - will be released tomorrow.

Here’s the best sale price currently on offer for the FULL 3 course program that will end on Saturday 18th July when the final modules are published: LINK

NEIL’S TAKEAWAYS:

In the United States
Coming up: The Nasdaq has rewritten its own rules to fast-track SpaceX into the Nasdaq-100 on or around July 6th, which will force every fund tracking the index to buy the stock whether they want to or not (note: this is a different listing to the previous).

And to buy SpaceX, those funds have to sell slices of everything else, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, the lot. It's a hidden, automatic event that has nothing to do with whether SpaceX is actually worth it; and this could have some pretty drastic effects on the markets.

That feeds into the bigger question that everyone is now asking: Are we in an AI bubble? Most economists in a recent poll said yes, drawing dot-com comparisons. And I would agree with them, I think we’re in a huge bubble right now.

The one place that I've been concerned is that the insiders at Nvidia, Palantir, Micron and Broadcom are selling.

They have sold close to $13 billion of their own stock since mid-2023 with almost no buying. There are plenty of reasons to sell a stock, but only one reason to buy your own, you think it's going higher.

Prepare: Watch the July 6th window, but don't chase an index-driven lift, forced buying changes who owns a stock, not what it's worth.

Across Europe:
Eurozone inflation dropped to 2.8% in June, down sharply from 3.2% in May and below the 3.0% economists were expecting. Prices actually fell 0.1% over the month itself, the first monthly drop all year.

But here's the part the headline hides… That 2.8% is an average, and the spread underneath it is huge. The big western economies have cooled right off, Germany at 2.4%, France and Malta near 2.0%.

Head east and it's completely different. Lithuania topped the table at 5.5%, Bulgaria (which only joined the euro in January) at 5.3%, with Croatia and Cyprus close behind. So when you hear "eurozone inflation is under control," remember there's no single eurozone economy, there are twenty-one of them pulling in different directions, and the ECB has to set one interest rate for all of them.

Prepare: A cooler inflation print takes pressure off the ECB, so aggressive further rate hikes look less likely now. Just be wary that the eastern members are still struggling AND the oil shock hasn’t fully ripped through their economies yet. Lean toward companies with pricing power and real order books rather than ones riding a temporary demand bump that could fade by autumn.

On the Global Stage:
The Japanese yen crashed past 162 to the dollar, its weakest level since 1986, forty years. The reason? Money flows to where it earns the most. US rates are high and, with new Fed chair Kevin Warsh expected to keep them there or even raise them...

The gap with Japan's 1% rate is huge. So investors sell yen to buy dollars. Japan's finance minister warned Tokyo is ready to take "bold action," and traders are watching the thin-trading July 4th holiday as a likely moment for intervention.

For years investors have borrowed cheap yen to buy US stocks and bonds, (known as the carry trade). But if the yen suddenly reverses, that trade unwinds and money can get pulled out of American markets fast.

Prepare: A weaker yen is good for Japanese exporters, but watch the carry-trade risk closely, a sharp reversal could rattle US markets.

P.S. If you like this kind of commentary, and want detailed investment posts - then you’ll love the private finance and investing community over on Patreon (where you’ll also get as many as 3 Significantly Undervalued stock picks each month). You can also speak with me privately via personal messaging. Check it out here: LINK

3. Chart Of The Week

Mapped: The Countries Sitting On The World's Mineral Wealth

A handful of countries control the reserves of the minerals that run the modern world, and a new US Geological Survey data shows just how concentrated it is.

Australia is the standout all-rounder, ranking first for five major commodities, gold, uranium, iron ore, zinc and manganese, giving it one of the most diversified resource bases anywhere, including 31% of global iron ore and 28% of uranium.

China dominates the strategic stuff, holding 52% of rare earths and 32% of graphite, the ingredients behind EV batteries, wind turbines, semiconductors and defence kit, and rare earths are especially hard to replace.

But the real chokepoints sit with single countries: South Africa has a staggering 83% of platinum-group metals, Morocco 69% of phosphate, the DRC half the world's cobalt, and Indonesia 44% of nickel.

When one nation holds that much of a critical mineral, it hands them serious geopolitical leverage.

4. Market Overview

S&P 500 (U.S.) 
Finished the week higher. A weak June jobs report was the driver, hiring came in well short of forecasts, which pushed back worries about a Fed rate hike and let the index end on a high. It wasn't smooth, though. Big tech had a rough stretch, with chipmakers sliding on AI-valuation nerves and names like Micron and AMD getting hit, while Tesla fell despite good delivery numbers. The Dow led instead, pushing to a fresh record on strength in Apple and other traditional names.

FTSE 100 (UK)
Rose, and had one of its better weeks. It barely felt the global tech selloff since it's light on tech to begin with. Pharma led the charge with AstraZeneca and GSK jumping, and defence names BAE Systems and Babcock climbed hard. Banks, oil majors and Rolls-Royce all pitched in too.

S&P/TSX Composite (Canada)
Flat. Materials got a lift from steadier metals prices, but that was cancelled out by weakness in energy and utilities as oil kept sliding back toward the $70 mark. No clear direction, the index just drifted in its recent range through a quiet post-Canada Day stretch.

ASX 200 (Australia)
Crept higher, clawing back the prior week's dip and finishing with a strong Friday. Gold miners were the standout, jumping after weaker US payrolls sent bullion up, Northern Star and Evolution Mining both flew. Healthcare and consumer stocks kept up their recent run, while energy was the odd one out, dragged lower by falling oil.

🇺🇸 United States – S&P 500

  • High: 7,537

  • Low: 7,355

🇬🇧 UK - FTSE 100

  • High: 10,698

  • Low: 10,431

🇨🇦 Canada – TSX Composite

  • High: 35,097

  • Low: 34,694

🇦🇺 Australia – ASX 200

  • High: 8,849

  • Low: 8,668

Cryptocurrency:

  • Bitcoin (BTC): 4.6%

  • Ethereum (ETH): 12.8%

  • Tether (USDT): 0.0%

  • BNB (BNB): 1.5%

  • USDC (USDC): 0.0%

  • XRP (XRP): 8.5%

  • Solana (SOL): 18.2%

  • TRON (TRX): -0.1%

  • Figure Heloc (FIGR_HELOC): 0.5%

  • Hyperliquid (HYPE): 12.5%

Metals Market:

Gold–Silver Ratio: ~67:1, Fell over the week, dropping from a high above 70 down to 67, meaning silver gained ground on gold. Both metals rose after a weak US jobs report cooled expectations of a Fed rate hike, but silver ran faster than gold, which is what pulled the ratio lower. That gap comes down to silver's industrial side.

Gold & Silver:

  • Gold:  2.77% with a Week High: $4,195 & Week Low: $3,947

  • Silver: 6.62% with a Week High: $62.91 & Week Low: $56.70

5. Faith & Success

❝

"A cheerful heart is good medicine."

— Proverbs 17:22

This weekend, much of the world will turn its eyes to America as it celebrates its Independence Day (from the British). Fireworks, flags, parades, BBQs (my favourite) and that unmistakable sense of pride that comes with the word freedom.

And it truly is something to be cherished and celebrated! Happy 4th July!

And remember that a cheerful heart and good laugh, truly is great medicine.

Studies show that people who keep a positive attitude, laugh more and spend time with people they enjoy being with - are much more productive, more creative, and more successful. Great huh?

So this weekend, enjoy your celebrations - spend time with people you care about, and laugh at something.

Unfortunately, my wife and I can’t make it over to the US to be with you all and our family this year, but we will be thinking of you.

Have a brilliant weekend my friend, and have a 4th July burger for me!

p.s. For those of you asking about ‘Speckie Jnr’ - I have an update! Our young feathered friend survived her injuries! Her wound healed, and her broken leg is on the mend. She will now no doubt become a popular character on the Castle show on Patreon, ha

Take care, and God Bless.

Neil,

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DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is 100% FREE & is designed to help your thinking, not direct it. These newsletters shall NOT be construed as tax, legal, or financial advice and may be outdated or inaccurate; all decisions made as a result of this information are yours alone.

Trading/Liability: Neil McCoy-Ward operates/trades under a private Ltd company within the Isle of Man.

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