Your IMPORTANT Weekly Briefing: (3rd April 2026)

The Neil McCoy-Ward Newsletter

April 03, 2026

Opening Note…

Hi, and welcome back.

I firstly want to open the newsletter by wishing you a very Happy Easter weekend. Today, is of course Good Friday, so I will share briefly on this at the end.  

I’ll open the content aspect here with a short update on the global energy crisis - since this is the most pressing shock that we've seen economically in decades…

This week:

The International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a new warning of an "April effect" on the global economy as supply disruptions and damaged infrastructure deepen. 

Oil losses, already described as the largest in history, are expected to worsen, hitting refined products like diesel and jet fuel particularly hard. 

The IEA Executive Director, highlighted that the crisis, already more severe than previous shocks and could see rationing emerge in some countries if the situation persists.

In Europe, officials are bracing for the impact to spread from Asia, where the last pre-crisis Gulf tankers are arriving this week. 

EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen urged member states to prepare for a "prolonged disruption," signalling plans to revive 2022-style covid lockdown measures, including demand curbs in transport, potential windfall taxes, electricity tax reductions, and coordinated oil security steps. 

Energy ministers held emergency discussions, emphasising voluntary fuel-saving actions and avoiding measures that could inflate demand further.

Globally, governments continued rolling out emergency responses. The IEA's policy tracker (updated as of April 2nd) documented widespread conservation efforts. These include promoting remote work, lower speed limits, and reduced gas appliance use. All alongside consumer supports like targeted subsidies. 

Some Asian nations ramped up coal-fired power as a short-term bridge, while airlines signalled higher fares and certain countries explored fuel price caps or rationing signals. 

Markets and policymakers remain on high alert as the physical supply crunch approaches in the coming weeks. 

And I think we all know what this means… expect more of the unexpected!

Ok, let's break down the latest...

Table of Contents

1. Weekly Spotlight

April 6th. Three Days Away. And Nobody Seems Ready For Either Outcome.

On Monday evening at 8pm Eastern Time, Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz expires. If Iran doesn't comply, he has said the US will "completely obliterate" Iran's power plants and oil wells, including Kharg Island. Kharg Island handles 90% of Iran's crude exports with a loading capacity of around 7 million barrels a day. If that gets hit, Iranian oil is permanently off the global market.

Iran's response so far has been rejecting the US 15-point peace plan and sending back their own five-point counteroffer demanding sovereignty over the Strait, and their parliament has passed legislation to start charging ships up to $2 million each to pass through. That could bring in $100 billion a year.

So let's be very clear about what's happening here. Iran is not just blocking the Strait as a wartime tactic. They're trying to permanently take control of it. They're drafting protocols with Oman to jointly "supervise and coordinate" shipping through the waterway. This would be territorial control over the most important energy chokepoint in the world.

Reports came out that Trump and his senior aides have concluded that reopening the Strait militarily would take longer than their preferred four to six week timeline.

The White House press secretary confirmed that reopening Hormuz is "not among the core objectives" of the military campaign. And Trump himself told allies to "build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT" adding that the US "won't be there to help you anymore…"

A strong set of words that has upset many allies who feel that the US has caused the problem and is now simply walking away from the mess and leaving them to deal with it.

Brent crude closed March up 63%. That’s the largest single month gain since 1988. Oil hit $126 at its peak before settling around $106. US gas prices have crossed $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022. And analysts are warning that if Hormuz stays closed past mid-April, we could see an additional 10 million barrels per day of supply losses hitting the market. At that point you're looking at oil prices over $120.

Now I've been watching Trump's deadlines on this and there's a pattern. He started with a 48 hour ultimatum on March 21st. That got extended to five days. Then extended again to ten days, pushing it to April 6th. Each time the language has been "talks are going very well" and "they want to make a deal so badly." But each time Iran has publicly denied negotiating and continued attacking shipping.

There are really only two outcomes on Monday. Either the deadline gets extended again and markets breathe a sigh of relief for another week. Or the strikes on energy infrastructure begin and oil goes to a place none of us want to think about right now.

Either way, the world after April 6th looks very different to the world before it. And I don't think most people are ready for what either scenario actually means for energy prices and the global economy (that's already showing serious cracks). I can only say that I’m expecting the worst (and hoping for the best), next week.

2. Quick Takes

Here are the other top stories shaping the week:

  • European Diesel Hits $200 As The Iran War Squeezes Global Fuel Supplies

    Diesel futures in London briefly topped $200 a barrel as the Iran conflict keeps pressure on the Strait of Hormuz and global fuel flows. Europe already imports most of its diesel, and Asian and Australian demand is pulling supplies away before they get there. Diesel isn't a luxury fuel, it runs trucks, farms, and construction sites, so when it gets expensive, everything else follows.

  • Australia May Use Emergency Powers To Lock In Its Own Gas Supply

    Australia's government is weighing emergency powers to prioritise domestic gas supply ahead of winter, as the Middle East conflict tightens global energy markets. The resources minister will consult gas producers over the next month before deciding. Current supply is described as stable, but east coast demand in winter could change that quickly. The government has already cut fuel taxes temporarily to help households.

  • South Korea Tells Its Citizens To Use Less Fuel And Prepare For A Long Winter

    South Korea's president is asking citizens to cut fuel use and take public transport as the Iran conflict squeezes Gulf energy supplies. The government is rolling out a $17 billion support package, capping fuel prices, cutting fuel taxes, and delaying coal plant closures to keep the lights on. India and China are doing similar things. - It's worth noting how fast climate commitments get quietly shelved when energy security becomes the priority.

  • Iraq Is Trucking Oil Through Syria To Bypass The Hormuz Problem

    Iraq has started moving roughly 50,000 barrels a day overland through Syria to the port of Baniyas, the first time this route has been used in decades, as Gulf shipping gets riskier. It costs more, but it keeps exports flowing and protects government revenue. Syria gets badly needed transit income as it rebuilds. Iraq says it's temporary until normal shipping routes reopen. - Every country in the region is improvising right now. The fact that trucking oil through post-war Syria counts as a viable plan tells you just how bad things are.

  • Iran Is Now Targeting US Tech Infrastructure In The Middle East

    A data centre run by Oracle in Dubai has reportedly been targeted in Iran-linked attacks, part of what appears to be a broader campaign against US-connected tech facilities in the region. Oracle hasn't reported major service disruptions, and details on damage remain unclear. Iranian state media has previously warned US companies could be treated as targets. - This is a notable escalation. Hitting data centres is economic warfare, and if cloud infrastructure becomes a wartime target, the risk for this whole war could be catastrophic.

  • The UN Is Warning That The Real Food Price Pain Hasn't Even Hit Yet

    Global food prices rose 2.4% in March and the UN says they could keep climbing if the Iran conflict continues pushing up energy and fertiliser costs. Strong cereal supplies have cushioned things so far, but wheat and vegetable oil are already rising. The bigger risk is what happens to planting decisions. If farmers cut back now, the shortfall shows up in harvests months later. - Food inflation always lags energy shocks. The March numbers are just the beginning.

  • Hedge Funds Just Had Their Worst Month In Four Years

    Global hedge funds posted their worst monthly losses since early 2022 as the Iran war sent markets into a spin. Asia-focused funds were hit hardest, dropping over 7% in March, while US and European funds also fell. Many funds responded by cutting risk and selling equities at the fastest pace in over a decade. Only some computer-driven funds managed to eke out small gains.

  • A $1.8 Trillion Private Credit Market Is Starting To Show Cracks

    Blue Owl has started limiting withdrawals from two of its private credit funds after investors tried to pull back 41% of one fund's value in just three months, far above the usual 5% cap. The firm says it can cover allowed withdrawals, but the move is rattling a market that was already under scrutiny. This follows Deutsche Bank's $30 billion private credit flag from last week.

  • Trump Has Fired Attorney General Pam Bondi

    Donald Trump has fired Attorney General Pam Bondi, with deputy Todd Blanche stepping in as acting head of the Justice Department. The move follows her handling of Jeffrey Epstein-related documents and a lack of progress on cases Trump wanted pushed. She was reportedly told after a White House meeting and Trump thanked her publicly on the way out.

NEIL’S TAKEAWAYS:

In the United States
The Present Situation Index, which measures how people feel right now, jumped to 123.3. But the Expectations Index, which is how people feel about the next six months, dropped to 70.9. That gap is one of the widest on record.

And that Expectations reading has now sat below 80 for 14 consecutive months. Historically, a reading that stays below 80 for that long is one of the most reliable early signals of a recession coming within the next year.

So people feel ‘ok’ today; they just don't believe tomorrow is going to be great.

That fear is already showing up in how people are spending. The data this week showed a clear "cheap thrills" pattern emerging across American households. Used cars are outselling new ones by a wide margin.

Plans for expensive services, travel, and big-ticket discretionary purchases are being cut. People are still spending, just on less. I've been saying for a while that you can tell more about an economy by watching what people stop buying than by listening to what they say they feel. I usually watch leisure businesses as my metric.

Prepare: Stay cautious on consumer discretionary names, particularly anything dependent on big-ticket spending or high disposable income. Sectors serving everyday needs, value retail, and used goods markets are better positioned in this environment.

Across Europe:
Europe is starting to feel the same energy pressure as the US. Inflation across the euro zone rose to about 2.5% in March, up from 1.9% the month before.

The problem is Europe was only just getting inflation under control. Now prices could start rising again just as the economy is already weak. Growth forecasts for 2026 are only around 0.8%.

Officials at the European Central Bank are starting to warn that if energy prices stay high, growth could weaken even more. I’m not expecting them to cut interest rates anytime soon. That keeps borrowing expensive for businesses and households, which also slows growth.

Prepare: Europe looks very sensitive to energy right now, especially with growth already weak. If energy stays expensive, expect more pressure on businesses and household spending. The main thing to watch is whether inflation keeps rising.

On the Global Stage:
The IEA has called this the greatest energy security challenge in the history of the global oil market, but the crisis running alongside the energy shock may prove more consequential. It is the fertiliser crisis, and it is unfolding at the worst possible moment on the agricultural calendar.

The Strait of Hormuz normally carries between 20% and 30% of global fertiliser exports. Since the conflict began, that traffic has been reduced to almost nothing. Urea prices jumped 50% in under three weeks. Spring planting season in the Northern Hemisphere runs from mid-February to early May, this is the exact window when farmers apply nitrogen to the soil.

Miss it, and crop yields for the entire season are locked in. The FAO has already warned that if the disruption persists beyond three months, it will affect global planting decisions for 2026 and beyond, and the UN Secretary-General has appointed a special envoy specifically to restore fertiliser movement through the Strait.

The World Food Programme estimates the conflict could push 45 million additional people into acute hunger by mid-2026. World Bank Bangladesh is in the middle of its critical rice season. India is facing reduced domestic fertiliser production ahead of planting. Brazil, which relies on the Gulf for nearly half its fertiliser supply, is one of the world's largest food exporters, meaning a production hit there ripples into global grain prices felt by everyone.

Prepare: Watch agricultural commodity prices and fertiliser-exposed sectors closely over the next two quarters. North American fertiliser producers with domestic natural gas access are better positioned. For any emerging market exposure, particularly South and Southeast Asia, assess how much sits in food-import-dependent economies with thin reserves.

3. Chart Of The Week

Global Trust In The US Just Fell Off A Cliff, And It's Not Just Enemies

I wanted to include this chart for my US based audience, as I know that some things don’t get through the media wall…

New data from the Munich Security Conference shows trust in the United States has dropped sharply across the board, with Canada leading the collapse at -52%, followed by South Africa and Brazil both down over -20%, and traditional allies Italy, France, Germany, Japan and the UK all falling between -13% and -17%.

These are decades-long partners reassessing their relationships. Trade threats, tariff uncertainty, and talk of annexing Greenland and making Canada the 51st state are all doing damage.

Europe is responding by arming up, with 43% of French and 32% of German respondents supporting higher defence spending in a January poll.

4. Market Overview

S&P 500 (U.S.)
For the S&P 500, US stocks rose because big tech and AI‑related companies kept showing strong profits, and traders bet that the Fed could eventually lower rates again, even though the Fed has kept its key rate high and inflation is still above target.

FTSE 100 (UK)
For the FTSE 100, UK stocks were helped by banks and energy companies paying solid dividends, and by a sense that the Bank of England may not have to keep rates as high for as long as people once feared, even though inflation in the UK is still above 2% and the economy is weak.

S&P/TSX Composite (Canada)
The TSX Composite gained because oil and mining prices stayed relatively strong, which boosts Canada’s big resource companies, and because investors linked Canada’s outlook to the US: if the Fed looks a bit more likely to cut rates later, Canadian stocks tend to move up too, even though Canadian borrowing costs are still elevated.

ASX 200 (Australia)
The ASX 200 rose because mining and bank stocks did well, and because global markets were in a more optimistic mood, with many investors hoping that inflation and interest rates will ease later in the year, even though in reality inflation and policy rates are still higher than they’ve been in years.

🇺🇸 United States – S&P 500

  • High: 6,609.22

  • Low: 6,318.26

🇬🇧 UK - FTSE 100

  • High: 10,458.39

  • Low: 9,973.31

🇨🇦 Canada – TSX Composite

  • High: 33,135.10

  • Low: 31,787.20

🇦🇺 Australia – ASX 200

  • High: 8,719.70

  • Low: 8,397.40

Cryptocurrency:

  • Bitcoin (BTC): 0.8%

  • Ethereum (ETH): 3.6%

  • Tether (USDT): 0.1%

  • XRP (XRP): -0.9%

  • BNB (BNB): -3.5%

  • USDC (USDC): 0.0%

  • Solana (SOL): -3.7%

  • TRON (TRX): 0.0%

  • Figure Heloc (FIGR_HELOC): 1.5%

  • Dogecoin (DOGE): 0.4%

Metals Market:

Gold–Silver Ratio: ~64:1, the gold–silver ratio was flat, down roughly around –1.7% this week as silver outperformed gold. Gold stayed roughly flat in the low‑4,300s range.

Gold & Silver:

  • Gold: Fell 1.75% with a Week High: $4,801 & Week Low: $4,414

  • Silver: Was rose 7.21% with a Week High: $79.37 & Week Low: $67.56

5. Faith & Success

❝

“Greater love has no one than this: to lay down one’s life for one’s friends.”

— John 15:13

Good Friday is a reminder to us all of the depth of sacrifice and the power of love (expressed through action). It represents a moment where even though all hope seemed lost, a greater purpose was unfolding in a way that very few could understand at that specific time.

But sometimes in life, the greatest growth happens in the most difficult of seasons; the moments that test patience, faith, and perspective. What would have looked like a huge loss, actually became the beginning of something greater…

Something celebrated by 2.5 billion Christians around the World - over 2,000 years later.

Life often brings moments where things don’t go to plan, when doors close, circumstances change and our own expectations fall short. But Easter reminds us that even when situations appear final, that new life can still emerge and new opportunities can still appear.

This week, carry that perspective with you. Stay hopeful, stay steady, because new beginnings often arrive when we least expect them.

Happy Easter to you and your family. God Bless you all!

Neil,

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This newsletter is 100% FREE & is designed to help your thinking, not direct it. These newsletters shall NOT be construed as tax, legal, or financial advice and may be outdated or inaccurate; all decisions made as a result of this information are yours alone.

Trading/Liability: Neil McCoy-Ward operates/trades under a private Ltd company within the Isle of Man.