Your IMPORTANT Weekly Briefing: (31st October 2025)

The Neil McCoy-Ward Newsletter

October 31, 2025

Opening Note…

Welcome back to this week’s newsletter!

You may have noticed from my recent videos that I’ve arrived safely to my Winter home now. Which feels very strange, I must admit. Especially because all the articles I've been reading this week have been about war. But even more disturbing, was how many of these articles have highlighted the different European countries arguing over who should do what during the war. And who should get the most funding to build weapons and the like?

It seems as though we've now moved into that phase I talked about last year when I said that more countries will want to follow Germany and create a more military-based economy… well, we're not quite there yet. Germany is still the main country ploughing ahead with this approach, but I don't think it will be long before others begin to follow.

And if you've ever owned any kind of weapon before, what's the first thing you want to do with it? You want to try it out, right?! I know that was always the case for me, whether that was a slingshot at 8 or 9 years old, or my first archery bow, or when I joined the army at age 17, it was the SA80 assault rifle.

My point here is, all of these countries that are starting to build up these huge militaries are going to want to do something with them. People are already angry. They are seeing their life savings dwindling away, or they are upset with the cost of living, and their money not keeping up. Anger eventually leads to Actions.

Now let's break down the latest...

Table of Contents

1. Weekly Spotlight

The U.S. and China strike a deal

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping just met face-to-face in Busan, South Korea. And while the media billed it as a potential reset in U.S.–China relations, what we actually got was more modest: a one-year trade truce, with a few headline concessions on both sides.

So here’s what actually happened then (without the fluff)… The U.S. agreed to cut certain tariffs on Chinese goods, including halving tariffs on products linked to synthetic opioid precursors from around 20% down to 10%.

Overall, the average duty on Chinese imports will drop from 57% to 47%. In return, China has agreed to resume buying U.S. soybeans and, more importantly, to continue exporting rare earth materials for at least the next twelve months.

Both leaders called the meeting “very good.” Trump even rated it “12 out of 10.” China, in its official statement, described the relationship as showing “overall stability”, signalling that while there are still major differences, both sides are choosing to step back from the edge (at least for now).

But the big issues, like chip export controls, Taiwan, and deep structural competition between the two nations, were left untouched. This was also reflected in the markets.

Although I don't view this as a grand peace deal, I do think that this temporary pause between two of the world’s biggest rivalries is a positive result.

For you, this could mean certain imported goods from China become a little cheaper, or at least don’t rise as sharply. Supply chains for high-tech products, especially those dependent on rare earth materials, will get a bit of breathing space too. And while this might not make the news headlines, it will have a big impact, because these materials power everything from your smartphone to electric vehicles and advanced military technology.

China had stated that it might restrict rare earth exports. If that were the case, it would have sent global manufacturers into chaos and prices soaring. This truce pulls that risk back, at least temporarily.

In terms of what comes next, the keyword here is temporary. This deal is set for just one year. And that’s really the headline: what happens next depends entirely on whether this goodwill lasts.

If it holds, we could see an uptick in U.S. agricultural exports to China, particularly soybeans and other farm goods. But if it doesn’t, we could easily slip back into the same trade tensions we’ve seen for the past decade.

Overall, though, it doesn’t change my outlook. I still believe that the US and China are deep into an economic trade war, which will eventually come to heads in a conventional war at some point well into the future. The world doesn’t like to have more than one superpower.

2. Quick Takes

Here are the top stories shaping the week:

  • Trump Confirms He Won’t Run For A Third Term

    Donald Trump said flat out he won’t run for a third term, which the U.S. Constitution blocks. “If you read it, it’s pretty clear... I’m not allowed to run,” he told reporters on Air Force One. House Speaker Mike Johnson backed that up, saying there’s no path to amending the Constitution before 2028, even if anyone wanted to try. Trump’s term ends in January 2029, and Johnson said talk of changing term limits is off the table. The 22nd Amendment caps presidents at two terms, and Johnson admitted there’s “no path” for exceptions. Trump has joked with “Trump 2028” merch, but Johnson insists it’s just trolling.

  • Trump Claims Victory As Gates Walks Back Climate Doom Talk

    Bill Gates just said climate change won’t end humanity, and Trump couldn’t resist. On Truth Social, he declared, “I (WE!) just won the War on the Climate Change Hoax,” thanking Gates for “finally admitting he was wrong.” Now he says global warming isn’t the apocalypse it was sold as. Critics say the timing’s convenient, with tech giants needing more fossil-fuel energy to power data centres. - Convenient? Bill Gates needs energy for his data centres which will not be compatible with renewables…

  • Nvidia Becomes the World’s First $5 Trillion Company

    Nvidia just smashed through the $5 trillion mark, becoming the most valuable public company ever. Its AI chips are in such high demand that the stock has jumped 39% this year alone, adding $1 trillion in value in just 79 trading days. The company now makes up nearly a fifth of the S&P 500’s gains in 2025. CEO Jensen Huang’s personal fortune has ballooned to $179.6 billion, putting him eighth globally. Nvidia’s market cap now even tops Japan’s entire GDP, and it’s pumped $24.2 billion back to shareholders in just half a fiscal year. Microsoft and Apple trail far behind at around $4 trillion each. - 1/5th of the S&P 500s gains is ridiculous just goes to show much the s&p 500 is being held up by few stocks 

  • Home Office Blasted For Wasting £15 Billion On Asylum Hotels

    MPs say the Home Office has “squandered” billions on asylum housing after botching its contracts with private providers. The committee’s report says costs for accommodation deals have exploded from £4.5bn to £15.3bn, with hotels now the default option instead of a stopgap and hoteliers demanding outrageous prices. Two firms still owe millions in excess profits, and the department hasn’t issued fines for failures. Keir Starmer called it a “mess” left by the Tories and vowed to shut the hotels, while Kemi Badenoch hit back, blaming Labour for scrapping the Rwanda plan. Around a third of asylum seekers, over 32,000 people, are still in hotels. The government says it’s shifting to cheaper military bases, but MPs say the Home Office remains “chaotic” and “incompetent.” 

  • Rachel Reeves Caught Renting Home Without a Proper Licence

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves admitted she broke housing rules by renting out her Southwark home without the required £945 landlord licence. She says it was an “inadvertent mistake” made through her letting agency, and she’s since applied for the licence. Keir Starmer said no further investigation was needed after she apologised, but Tory leader Kemi Badenoch accused him of hypocrisy, quoting his own line that “lawbreakers can’t be lawmakers.” Reeves’ four-bed house had been rented for £3,200 a month, and she’d declared the income publicly. The timing’s awkward; she’s about to deliver her next budget, which could include higher property taxes. - It just gets worse and worse for Labour by the minute, first Angela Rayner, now this. It just proves the old saying true “do as I say, not as I do” or another of my favourites “do I say, but just don’t watch me too closely”.

  • Poll Downplays Immigration Concerns, But Who Was Asked?

    A new YouGov poll claims only 26% of people see immigration as a key issue. It ranks way below the cost of living, health, crime, and housing. Campaigners jumped on the result, saying it proves “there is no immigration crisis” and that fear over migrants is a “manufactured panic.” - But I wonder who was actually surveyed, I bet they selected a few green haired uni students between lectures for this one.

  • Trump Agrees To Share U.S. Nuclear Submarine Tech With South Korea

    Donald Trump says the U.S. will share nuclear submarine technology with South Korea after meeting President Lee Jae Myung. Lee pushed for a “modernised alliance” and promised higher defence spending to ease America’s costs. Seoul isn’t asking for nuclear weapons—just nuclear-powered subs, which Trump says will be built in Philadelphia by South Korea’s Hanwha Group. The project’s price tag is unclear, but South Korea has pledged $150 billion to boost U.S. shipbuilding. - This is rather surprising, as the US guards this tech even from close allies like the UK and Australia. I wonder if it’s anything to do with North Korea just testing cruise missiles, and Trump’s meeting with Xi Jinping. 

  • Russia Threatens To Match Trump On Nuclear Tests

    The Kremlin says it will restart nuclear weapons testing if the U.S. does, after Donald Trump ordered the Pentagon to prepare America’s first tests since 1992. Moscow had just trialled its Burevestnik cruise missile and Poseidon underwater drone, though it insists those don’t breach the global test ban that’s held since 1996. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that if “someone abandons the moratorium, Russia will act accordingly.” Trump and Vance argue testing is needed to make sure America’s arsenal still works. The UN called the plan “never permissible under any circumstances.”

  • Trump Sets Record-Low Refugee Cap, Prioritises South African Minority

    Donald Trump has lowered the U.S. refugee ceiling for 2026 to 7,500, the smallest number on record. The plan focuses mainly on white Afrikaners from South Africa, a group Trump says faces racial discrimination. His administration argues refugee admissions should serve America’s best interests and that the system needs tighter control. Democrats say the move bypassed Congress, but Trump officials blame the recent government shutdown for delays. The White House also plans to shift refugee oversight from the State Department to Health and Human Services, aiming for more efficient management.

  • Mass Haredi Protest Erupts Over Military Draft Plans

    Hundreds of thousands of ultra-Orthodox Jews flooded Jerusalem for a massive protest against plans to end their draft exemption. The “march of the million” united nearly all Haredi factions, furious at moves to force more of their men into the army and the recent arrests of draft dodgers. Since Israel’s founding, full-time yeshiva students have been exempt from service, but the Gaza war has reignited calls for them to “share the burden.” Critics say it’s unfair that 14% of the population stays out of uniform, while supporters warn conscription would threaten their traditional way of life. - The army itself isn’t thrilled either; integrating strict religious communities could be a logistical nightmare.

NEIL’S TAKEAWAYS:

In the United States
The Federal Reserve trimmed rates by 25 basis points this week, bringing the benchmark down to 3.75% to 4.00%. Which, under normal circumstances, might send markets upwards. But instead of celebration, what we saw was hesitation. Because even though the cut was expected, Jerome Powell made it very clear that another cut in December is not guaranteed. The Fed sounded cautious, even uneasy, and that tells us something important.

According to ADP, the labour market is showing signs of what they call a small recovery. Job growth is improving, yes, but it’s not convincing enough to say the slowdown is over. Wage growth has flattened, and with the government shutdown delaying key data, the Fed is effectively flying half-blind.

This is a grey zone, that strange middle ground where growth isn’t strong enough to celebrate, but not weak enough to panic over either. In other words, the Fed’s latest move feels more like an insurance policy.

Prepare: Pay close attention to the sectors most sensitive to rates and employment, housing, retail, and credit markets in particular. Watch consumer behaviour as we move through the holiday season. Because if confidence begins to crack, the Fed might be forced back to the table sooner than they’d like.

Across Europe
Eurozone GDP rose 0.2% in Q3, a touch better than the 0.1% economists expected. France and Spain pulled their weight, but Germany flatlined, delivering 0% growth as industrial output and exports remain stuck in neutral.

Southern EU economies are showing better results through services and consumer spending, while the North, especially Germany and Italy, are being dragged down by weak industrial demand and external competition.

Prepare: Focus on industrial and export-heavy economies like Germany and Italy. If factory output doesn’t pick up soon, the slowdown will spill over into services, credit, and eventually employment.

On the Global Stage

China reported its second straight month of industrial profit growth, a welcome rebound on paper. But Beijing is cracking down on industrial overcapacity, particularly in steel, EVs, and renewables, as oversupply threatens to crush margins. I think the gains look more like a short-term bounce than anything sustainable.

We also got the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook, which showed commodity prices are projected to fall roughly 7% this year and next, reaching six-year lows. Oversupply, weak global growth, and a cooling China are all weighing on demand. - I still feel that we are now in the realms of the commodity super cycle that I predicted previously. Gold & Silver have already moved. Copper and Uranium are not far off. Oil is another big play, and I will be releasing a detailed post on that shortly on Patreon.

Prepare: Focus on the global exporters, energy producers, and commodity-dependent economies. Watch how the trade truce evolves and ways it might affect the supply chains.

3. Opportunity Of The Week…

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4. Chart Of the Week: How Much Control China Has Over the World’s Critical Minerals

China now controls the bulk of the planet’s critical minerals. Out of 27 key materials, China dominates at least 15, including 98.7% of gallium, 95% of magnesium, and nearly 70% of rare earths. It refines them too, with around 90% of global rare earth processing happening on Chinese soil. That grip has Western governments rattled, especially as Trump’s team pushes for U.S. mining projects to catch up. A few others have niche monopolies: Brazil on niobium, Congo on cobalt, South Africa on platinum, but Beijing still sits at the top of the supply chain.

5. Market Overview

Markets ended the week on a cautiously positive note. In the U.S., the S&P 500 added about 1.8% as upbeat tech earnings helped lift sentiment, even with the Fed still striking a careful tone on rates. Over in the U.K., the FTSE 100 held steady; a weaker pound gave exporters a boost. Canada was a bit of a mixed bag, with strength in commodities and energy balancing out some renewed weakness in the banks. And in Australia, the ASX 200 managed a small gain, led by energy and real estate, while staples and healthcare names slipped on rising cost pressures.

🇺🇸 United States – S&P 500

  • High: 6,919.49

  • Low: 6,816.56

🇬🇧 UK - FTSE 100

  • High: 9,785.53

  • Low: 9,634.11

🇨🇦 Canada – TSX Composite

  • High: 30,486.41

  • Low: 30,073.07

🇦🇺 Australia – ASX 200

  • High: 9,054..70

  • Low: 8,877.10

Cryptocurrency:

  • Bitcoin (BTC): -0.9%

  • Ethereum (ETH): -1.8%

  • Tether (USDT): -0.1%

  • XRP (XRP): 0.8%

  • BNB (BNB): -2.1%

  • Solana (SOL): -2.5%

  • USDC (USDC): 0.0%

  • Lido Staked Ether (STETH): -1.7%

  • Dogecoin (DOGE): -5.4%

  • TRON (TRX): -3.5%

Metals Market:

Gold Silver Ratio: 82 The rush for safe-haven assets has eased a bit thanks to signs of calmer trade diplomacy.

Gold & Silver:

  • Gold: has pulled back further to the $4,000 mark this week, down ~1.5%.

  • Silver: Silver has been much flatter, staying around ~$49 - $47

6. Faith & Success

❝

“Better a patient person than a warrior, one with self-control than one who takes a city.”
— Proverbs 16:32

As many of you will no doubt no by now, the book of Proverbs is my favourite book in the Bible. And I put a lot of my success in life down to reading proverbs which is why I talk about it in several of my courses. Even if you're not a Christian, the book of Proverbs is an incredible teaching of wisdom that I highly recommend.

This week I was reflecting on how patience doesn’t always look powerful, but it’s one of the quietest forms of strength. It’s choosing to pause instead of push, to breathe instead of react. And how despite me wanting to PUSH hard to get things done, sometimes the bravest thing we can do is trust that what’s meant to unfold - actually will — in its own good time.

I always forget when I come back here to my winter home how different things are… most things are incredibly quick and efficient, like food and drink for example… it's almost unbelievable how fast the Thai people are able to make healthy and yet delicious food in the blink of an eye! This afternoon I had a salmon and salad starter, a Kale & Beef main, and a smoothie, all for the low price of £5.

But then at the same time, I was kept on hold back in the UK for something that should have taken two minutes. By the end of it all, I'd spent 45 minutes on the phone chasing my tail whereby no one knew how to do the task in question, plus a large phone bill on top.

If you're anything like me, you too probably get frustrated with situations like this, or by people who are inefficient in their work or they simply just don't have any care for their jobs. This is then reflected upon us as customers via our time being wasted or getting a bad service which can indeed be frustrating.

But after getting myself all worked up over it (for all of about 10 minutes!) I had to sit back and just laugh. I really did have a good hard belly laugh… at myself. All I really had to do was have a little bit of patience where I should have sent an email after realising that the call just wasn’t going as planned. This would have saved me at least 30 minutes of stress while the person in receipt of the email runs around to get the answer and replied to me when they had it.

This is a lesson I still have to relearn on a regular basis. Because my strategy has always been to push harder if something doesn't move… but actually the verse shows us that sometimes you just need to take a step back and have patience. To look at the bigger picture and strategise rather than stress…

See you next time,

God Bless,

Neil,

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Trading/Liability: Neil McCoy-Ward operates/trades under a private Ltd company within the Isle of Man.