Your IMPORTANT Weekly Briefing: (2nd January 2026)

The Neil McCoy-Ward Newsletter

January 02, 2026

Opening Note…

Welcome back! Let me first begin by wishing you a very Happy New Year. I truly hope and pray that you have a fantastic 2026 and beyond. And to ensure this happens, I’ve committed to spend a LOT more time this year helping this to come true for you.

And to start, I’m going to be making some PDFs and smaller 3-5 part email courses (for FREE). To help you to get started in different areas where you currently feel you could be stronger, this could be anything from precious metals to wealth psychology.

But in the meantime, if there’s a program that you want to take - but it isn’t or hasn’t been on sale for a while, please reply to this email and let me know which course it is and I’ll see what I can do…

NZ: I’m still travelling around the South island NZ right now, and I’ve had a truly wonderful time. An unforgettable time in fact. A once in a lifetime journey.

Here’s a picture I took earlier today, and no, I haven’t changed the colour of the water! It really is this teal colour of blue:

I’ll share some more pictures with you at the end.

Let's break down the latest...

Table of Contents

1. Weekly Spotlight

2025: The Year Confidence started cracking

I usually focus on one big story each week, but this week - I wanted to talk about something different…

Because when I look back over the last year, I experience a slow, uncomfortable realisation that a lot of things we were told were “stable” … simply weren’t. And that’s not just my thoughts & feelings, that’s also been reflected by other people’s feelings too.

But it’s also been reflective in the same mathematical areas that have always acted as indicators, such as: Gold, Silver, Bonds and more…

At the start of the year, markets were still in that familiar place: bad news got ignored, volatility was something traders dealt with, and policymakers always have a plan. Then January happened...

Nvidia suffered the biggest single-day loss in market value in history after a Chinese AI breakthrough rattled assumptions about US tech dominance. Trillions were wiped off our screens in hours. It reminded me just how much an enormous amount of global wealth had been built on very narrow assumptions.

That theme kept repeating. By March, U.S. consumers were telling surveyors they expected inflation to stay high for decades (which is one of the most dangerous signals in economics).

Because once people start believing that inflation won’t get under control, central banks lose their anchor. Markets picked up on that quickly: volatility surged, confidence collapsed, and gold started doing what gold usually does when trust fades. Btw, were the predictions in the Gold & Silver course accurate or what?! Wow. Especially the call from Kevin W on the silver price exploding (during his interview in the advanced course).

Then came the tariffs. By April and May, the U.S. effective tariff rate had climbed to levels not seen in nearly a century. Markets swung violently, one of the worst weeks since 2008, followed almost immediately by one of the strongest rallies in decades. Investors were trying to work out whether policy was fighting inflation or simply improvising. It was chaos.

June saw geopolitics re-enter the scene. Israel / Iran, combined with U.S. involvement, sent oil sharply higher.

Strangely, equities kept rising. By the Summer, stock markets were hitting new highs (even as bond yields climbed) huh? Governments struggled with debt costs, and central banks quietly accumulated gold at the fastest pace in decades. That contradiction of optimism in asset prices alongside defensive behaviour by institutions is something I’ve learned NOT to ignore.

By August, cracks were appearing in places people usually consider “safe.”
Long-dated government bond yields in countries like the UK and Japan surged to levels not seen in decades. When investors demand higher returns to lend to developed nations, it tells you something fundamental is shifting. And boy oh boy, did it shift…

September and October felt like escalation months. Equity valuations rose to extremes relative to the size of the real economy. Precious metals surged again. 

By November, the most worrying sign appeared: trust in the system itself. The U.S. cancelled an official jobs report for the first time ever. Layoff announcements surged. Consumer sentiment dropped to near record lows. Crypto suffered one of its sharpest corrections on record. Markets eventually rallied, but only after investors began betting on easier money again.

That, to me, sums up the year.

Whenever pressure built, the system reached for liquidity, stimulus, or delay. And that works… until it doesn’t. I’m not writing this to say a crash is imminent or that everything is about to fall apart… in fact, in my 1-hour Patreon video posted yesterday, I explained my forecast for equities throughout 2026 with incredibly strong research and data. You can watch that video HERE.

But I do think 2025 will be remembered as the year confidence started to crack, not all at once, but in stages.

Confidence in central banks - down
Confidence in government finances - down
Confidence in political stability - down (with exceptions)
Confidence that growth can be engineered without cost - yikes

This leads to changes in the way people behave. People save differently. They invest differently. They vote differently.

That’s what I’ll be watching as we head into the year, whether trust keeps slipping or whether something finally restores it.

Because once it’s gone, it’s very hard to get back. The UK has already fallen down that slippery slope with a jetpack.

2. Quick Takes

Here are the other top stories shaping the week:

  • £2,000 no-strings cash trial for homeless people in the UK

    A new UK trial is giving 250 people in London and Belfast who are homeless or recently homeless a one-off £2,000 payment to spend however they choose. Half the group receive the lump sum directly into their bank accounts, while the others continue with the usual charity and support services (researchers at King’s College London will compare outcomes). The project, run by the Centre for Homelessness Impact and inspired by a similar study in Vancouver, hopes to show that direct cash and trust can help people move into work and stable housing, at a time when rough sleeping in the UK has risen by 8%, despite Labour’s pledge to cut it. - Anyone who has read ‘psychological studies’ before, knows that there is always a bias behind viewed experiments. This is because people who take part in a study feel the eyes of the watchers (a person considered higher in society than they are). Due to this, the ‘subjects’ are more careful as to what they spend the money on, which leads to much better outcomes than a real use case. Then the Government uses this as ‘evidence’ to role out a national case…

  • Iran inflation protests spread nationwide as government swaps central bank chief

    Protests and strikes over soaring inflation and a collapsing ‘Rial’ that began with a bazaar strike in Tehran, have now spread to cities including Isfahan, Shiraz, Kermanshah and Yazd. Police have used tear gas on crowds, while university students have joined in with chants against Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and some calls for the return of the Shah’s son. President Masoud Pezeshkian says the government “recognises” the protests, has ordered talks with protest representatives, and has replaced central bank governor Mohammadreza Farzin with former economy minister Abdolnasser Hemmati. Exiled prince Reza Pahlavi and the US have voiced support for demonstrators, as Donald Trump hints at possible backing for further Israeli strikes if Iran rebuilds its missile or nuclear programmes, and Iranian leaders warn they will respond harshly to any attack. Trouble ahead it seems…

  • Trump pulls National Guard from Chicago, LA and Portland after court setbacks

    Donald Trump says he is withdrawing National Guard troops from Chicago, Los Angeles and Portland, claiming they had sharply reduced crime and warning he will send them back if crime rises again. The move follows a series of legal defeats, including judges blocking his efforts to federalise the California National Guard and to deploy Guard units in Portland and the Chicago area, and a Supreme Court refusal to allow Guard support for ICE operations near Chicago. California’s attorney general hailed the return of full control over the Guard as a major win, while earlier rulings in Oregon also stopped a long-term Guard deployment to Portland. Trump, who has made a tough-on-crime push central to his second term and has openly talked about using the Insurrection Act, insists the cities would have been “gone” without federal intervention and hints at returning “in a much different and stronger form”.

  • Trump administration freezes all federal childcare funds to Minnesota over fraud claims

    The US Department of Health and Human Services has frozen all federal childcare payments to Minnesota, due to serious allegations of widespread fraud in daycare centres, many linked to the Somali community. Deputy HHS Secretary Jim O’Neill says every childcare payment will now need receipts or photo evidence, and he has ordered a full audit of centres highlighted in viral footage showing empty facilities still getting public money.

  • England’s A&Es swamped with minor ailments as GP access falters

    New figures show millions of people in England are going to A&E (Accident & Emergency) for minor problems such as coughs, sore throats, earache and even hiccups, as access to GPs and local services remains near on impossible to get an appointment. Attendances for cough alone have jumped from about 44,000 in 2020–21 to more than 435,000 in 2024–25, a ten fold increase! While over 2.2 million people last year left A&E with “no abnormality detected”. Health leaders say this rush to emergency departments for conditions that could be handled by GPs or pharmacists is overloading A&Es and reflects a failure to expand convenient primary care quickly enough. Ministers point to extra GP appointments, pharmacy schemes and a 10-year plan to shift care into communities, but NHS bosses warn that neighbourhood services need to be turbocharged if A&E is ever going to cope. - I made a video exposing this whole thing a couple of years ago, because the system is on it’s knees. The entire local doctor service that we were used to growing up, no longer exists. Even people in their 70’s and 80’s who need to see a doctor - simply don’t bother going to the doctor anymore. Reasons include: too difficult to get an appointment. Understaffed. Technology barrier (using apps etc). Having to call at exactly 8am and there being 100 people calling for 10 appointments… and the list goes on.

    True story: I was asked to register at my local doctor when living in the UK, and when I went for my appointment, an old man was waiting behind me in line who was crying. I asked if he was ok and he said that he has been waiting 3 months on his cancer screening results. He said he can’t take it anymore and was a “bag of nerves” - he couldn’t even eat or sleep he was so scared. Then the receptionist said, and I quote: “Mr X, as I told you last week, the doctor will call you when we have an update, there’s no reason for you to come in every week!!!” - I was outraged! I left and never bothered registering there or anywhere else. In hindsight, I should have taken the man for a coffee and offered to pay for him to have a private scan that week, but I didn’t think of that until afterwards! I hope and pray he’s doing ok today, I still think about him from time to time…

NEIL’S TAKEAWAYS:

In The United States:
Trump has managed to make a lot of “blue chip” forecasts look wrong again this year. Inflation didn’t re-ignite, and growth kept running hotter than most of the experts said. Instead, we saw tax cuts, deregulation, and a very real wave of private spending on AI and energy, which have done more of the heavy lifting than the MSM wanted to admit.

Economists expected “high inflation, low growth,” and got the opposite: strong output through mid-year and inflation that has cooled enough to keep the expansion going. Even the tariff story has been more complicated than the warnings suggested: yes, some prices got pushed up, but the broader growth can still pull overall inflation down if supply expands and investment stays alive.

We are seeing just how divided experts are in the Fed. The latest minutes show a central bank that’s split on what comes next. Some officials want to keep a tight grip until inflation is clearly tamed, while others don’t want to wait until the job market cracks before easing. So while the Trump economy looks better than predicted, the path for rates still looks bumpy.

Prepare: If growth stays firm, expect more people to keep revising their 2026 story higher (even if they do it through gritted teeth). The bigger swing factor is the Fed: every inflation and jobs print will feed the internal argument about cuts. A strong economy with an uneven rate path is still the cleanest way to frame the next stretch.

Across Europe:

Across Europe, the economic mood is quietly improving, helped by something very simple, cheaper energy. Oil prices fell sharply throughout last year, and that’s feeding through into lower headline inflation across much of the region. For households, it eases pressure on bills; for governments and central banks, it makes the inflation problem feel more manageable - even if service prices remain stubborn.

In the UK, that setting is shaping the government’s priorities. The focus has shifted squarely onto cost-of-living pressures, energy bills, housing efficiency, and everyday expenses that voters feel most directly. For 2026, I can see political credibility will hinge on whether households actually feel financial relief, not just better inflation reads.

Prepare: Europe’s near-term outlook looks calmer as energy inflation fades, but that doesn’t mean risks are gone. Watch whether lower bills translate into stronger spending and confidence, especially in the UK.

On the Global Stage:

China is starting 2026 by telling the world it plans to lean harder on support at home. When Beijing talks about a “more proactive” policy, it’s usually code for more public spending and more nudges to get investment and demand moving again. For the rest of the world, that matters as a signal: China is still not fully comfortable with the strength of its domestic economy, so it’s choosing stimulus over patience.

At the same time, global trade is still living with a supply-chain stress test that hasn’t really gone away. Even the idea of container ships returning through the Red Sea/Suez route comes with short-term disruption risk, because schedules, capacity, and port flows have to be rebuilt and re-optimised. If routes normalise, freight costs can fall over time, but the transition itself can be messy and can still jolt delivery times and prices in pockets.

Then there’s the Venezuela–China oil story. The U.S. has tightened enforcement and added new sanctions tied to tankers and firms involved in moving Venezuelan crude, and that’s pushing cargoes into slower, more complicated channels. Some tankers are still moving toward Venezuela to load oil ultimately bound for China (including crude used to service debt arrangements), but the friction is rising, and exports are getting squeezed. I wouldn’t be surprised if China send tankers to Venezuela at this point.

Prepare: Watch for China’s follow-through; the size and speed of stimulus will matter for commodities and Asia-linked exporters. Keep an eye on shipping route decisions because even a shift back toward Suez can create temporary bottlenecks before it lowers costs. And on energy, Venezuela is a reminder that sanctions can tighten supply in unpredictable ways, even when global oil prices look calm.

3. Chart of the Week: Top 20% now take more than half of all US income

New figures show that high earners in America now capture a much bigger slice of the country’s income than they did 50 years ago. In 2024, the top 20% of households, averaging $316,100 a year, took home 52.2% of all income, up from 43.5% in 1974, while the top 5% alone now get nearly a quarter. At the other end, the bottom 20% average just $18,460 and their share has shrunk to 3.1%, with many in this group on or below the federal minimum wage and a big chunk of them under 25. The middle fifth has also seen its slice shrink to 13.9%, even though this group includes solid professional jobs like engineers and programmers, meaning only the already well-off have gained ground over time.

4. Market Overview

S&P 500 (U.S.)
In the U.S., the S&P 500 has been down over the past week. Trading was quiet and choppy around the year-end holiday period, with some profit-taking and limited conviction as investors waited for fresh economic data and clearer signals on interest rates.

FTSE 100 (UK)
In the UK, the FTSE 100 has been up over the past week. The index was supported by a generally positive global tone, with strength in large defensive and resource-linked stocks helping it move higher despite ongoing concerns about UK growth.

S&P/TSX Composite (Canada)
In Canada, the TSX has been down over the past week. Weakness in commodity-related sectors weighed on the index, and thin year-end trading limited any strong rebound.

ASX 200 (Australia)
In Australia, the ASX 200 has been down over the past week. The market drifted lower through most of the week amid cautious sentiment, though conditions stabilised toward the end as global risk appetite improved.

🇺🇸 United States – S&P 500

  • High: 6,916.24

    Low: 6,847.18

🇬🇧 UK - FTSE 100

  • High: 10,037.34

  • Low: 9,861.86

🇨🇦 Canada – TSX Composite

  • High: 32,028.48

  • Low: 31,702.68

🇦🇺 Australia – ASX 200

  • High: 8783.80

  • Low: 8686.10

Cryptocurrency:

  • Bitcoin (BTC): 1.0%

  • Ethereum (ETH): 2.9%

  • Tether (USDT): 0.0%

  • BNB (BNB): 3.5%

  • XRP (XRP): 1.6%

  • USDC (USDC): 0.0%

  • Solana (SOL): 3.8%

  • TRON (TRX): 2.2%

  • Lido Staked Ether (STETH): 2.7%

  • Dogecoin (DOGE): 5.3%

Metals Market:

Gold–Silver Ratio: ~59:1 The gold–silver ratio fell this week because silver outperformed gold. Silver caught stronger follow-through buying (helped by the “easier rates / softer dollar” backdrop and ongoing industrial-demand momentum), while gold also rose but didn’t keep pace,.

Gold & Silver:

  • Gold: Rose about -3.44% (Week High: $4,567.32 / Week Low: $4,278.98).

  • Silver: flat about -0.36% (Week High: $85.50 / Week Low: $70.52)

5. Faith & Success

❝

“The LORD will command the blessing on you in your storehouses and in all to which you set your hand, and He will bless you in the land which the LORD your God is giving you.”

— Deuteronomy 28:8, NKJV

Here’s a question for you… what are you personally believing for in 2026?

What if you decided right now to leave the weight of the past year behind and step forward with a renewed mindset, ready to rise higher than before? Because I can tell you one thing… replaying old disappointments and dwelling on what you lost - will only hold you down. It’s time to release it. Stop revisiting what’s already finished because that season is over.

This new year is a gift - full of opportunity, fresh vision, new relationships, and new beginnings. Keep your focus on what’s good. Fix your attention on what’s possible. This is your moment to move forward.

We each have a calling that is for you to rise up, to soar like an eagle above the distractions and limitations. Take hold of today’s promise and declare it boldly:
“Thank You that You command Your blessing on everything I put my hand to this year. Thank You for blessing my home, my family, and my work. Thank You that You always lead me in victory, that what I touch will prosper and succeed. I declare that 2026 will be a year of abundance, growth, and overflow.”

I said at the start that I’d share a couple of pictures with you, so here we go!

This was me panning for gold! I found a half dozen flakes… worth all of $1 - HA!

This was me and my wife (Kristin) visiting a remote farm near Queenstown

We’ve got 2 more weeks left in NZ, we are heading to the North island next.

Until next time,

God Bless,

Neil,

Enjoying this Newsletter? Share with a Friend…

DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is 100% FREE & is designed to help your thinking, not direct it. These newsletters shall NOT be construed as tax, legal, or financial advice and may be outdated or inaccurate; all decisions made as a result of this information are yours alone.

Trading/Liability: Neil McCoy-Ward operates/trades under a private Ltd company within the Isle of Man.