Your IMPORTANT Weekly Briefing: (27th March 2026)

The Neil McCoy-Ward Newsletter

March 27, 2026

Opening Note…

Last week, I shared my serious concerns over how people still weren’t appreciating/understanding the sheer impact of this coming energy crisis…

Also how I didn't see energy prices coming back down, (not in the short/medium-term anyway); especially if the straight stays closed. 

On top of this, Ukraine (with British help again?) Just bombed Russian energy infrastructure… resulting in even more energy supply being removed from the global market. 

And then this week, we've heard of these very bizarre and mysterious fires taking place at refineries in different countries, even the USA! (Valero refinery in Port Arthur, Texas). 

Plus now, Nebraska is facing the largest wildfire(s) in its history, with four major blazes tearing across central and western parts of the state. Collectively, the fires have burned nearly 750,000 acres of land, prompting a state of emergency and an all-hands-on-deck response from local, state and federal agencies. What began as scattered incidents have quickly escalated into a historic disaster.

It’s in times like these that I’m glad I’ve always ignored the criticism and ridicule when others have laughed at me for ‘being prepared’ - because those who are best prepared are those who will best survive periods of chaos… 

And I’m really glad that so many of you are now working your way through Digital Income Mastery. The program will really help you to get through this period, because A: fuel shortages won't affect your drive to work (because your work will be wherever you want it to be), B: If you do see food shortages in your country, you can just move elsewhere for a period of time (because your job won't be tied to a fixed location). And C: If we see energy lockdowns, your business will explode because everyone will be at home looking to learn new things!

Ok, let's break down the latest...

Table of Contents

1. Weekly Spotlight

Europe Has An Energy Crisis Brewing

While everyone is watching the Iran situation play out, something much more serious is happening in Europe that very few people are talking about. And by the time they do, it might already be too late to do much about it.

European gas storage is at 28%.

For context, the usual level for this time of year is somewhere around 33% to 35%. Germany is at 22%. France is at 22%. And the Netherlands, which is one of the most critical storage hubs on the continent, is now below 6% (pouring concrete down their gas wells, maybe wasn’t such a smart move huh?)

Now here's why this is important… Under EU regulations, gas storage has to reach at least 90% capacity by December. Yet they are starting at 28%.

That means they need to inject roughly 60 billion cubic metres of gas between now and winter just to hit the legal target. And that was already going to be extremely difficult before Qatar's largest LNG facility was taken out by an Iranian drone strike on March 2nd.

Qatar is the world's second largest LNG exporter. It supplies a significant chunk of gas to EU countries including Italy, Belgium and Spain. Qatar has now said it can no longer honour its contractual obligations. And the repair timeline is up to five years. This is potentially years of reduced supply from one of Europe's key sources.

European gas prices have already jumped 70% this month. Goldman Sachs is now warning it could hit much higher if the disruption continues through the summer. And remember, Germany shut down its own nuclear power plants for the net zero agenda. Their Chancellor has actually admitted that was a huge mistake!

So they've got no nuclear after dismantling it for net zero, gas storage at 22%, and their biggest LNG supplier can't deliver. That is a very bad combination.

The Atlantic Council put it very clearly this week. Even if a ceasefire were agreed today, Europe is likely already heading towards an energy crisis. The numbers just don't work. Storage is critically low and the refill season is about to start without one of their biggest suppliers being able to deliver.

I've been saying for a while now to keep an eye on uranium and nuclear (& I made a big investment presentation about it in the Patreon). I think this situation is going to force a rethink across the continent. Germany is already talking about rebuilding what it destroyed. Others will no doubt follow.

2. Quick Takes

Here are the other top stories shaping the week:

  • Iran Is Earning $139 Million A Day From The Very War Being Fought Against It

    While the US and Israel bomb Iranian infrastructure and the world scrambles to find alternative oil supplies, Iran is making a fortune. Because it's the only Gulf producer whose oil can freely exit the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's export volumes have held steady while prices have surged and discounts on Iranian crude have narrowed sharply. Estimates show Iran is earning $139 million per day from oil sales in March alone.

  • The US Is Eyeing Iran's Most Important Island, And It Won't Be Easy

    Kharg Island handles 90% of Iran's crude oil exports and the Trump administration is reportedly weighing a military operation to seize it, as a way to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has been busy fortifying it with air defense systems, portable missiles, and mines planted along likely landing zones. A retired US Admiral is warning troops would face "clever and ruthless" resistance on the ships and on the ground. Even if the US pulls it off, analysts aren't convinced it actually solves the Hormuz problem, and it could just make things worse. Regional allies are pushing for a naval blockade instead, which achieves a similar goal without putting boots on heavily mined ground.

  • India Is Buying 60 Million Barrels Of Russian Oil And Paying In Yuan And Dirhams

    Indian refiners have booked around 60 million barrels of Russian oil for April delivery, double February's volumes, at premiums of $5 to $15 above the Brent benchmark. The purchases are from the US waiver allowing India to buy Russian crude already at sea, but Indian refiners are increasingly settling these transactions in Chinese yuan and UAE dirhams rather than dollars.

  • The Philippines Has Declared A National Emergency Over The Energy Crisis

    The Philippines declared a state of national emergency this week, with President Marcos signing an executive order giving the government control over fuel prices and fast-track powers to source oil from alternative suppliers including Russia. Around 98% of all oil bound for the Philippines passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and the country has roughly 45 days of fuel reserves at current consumption levels (probably less by the time you read this).

  • Trump And Xi Will Meet In Beijing On May 14th, With Rare Earths And The Iran War On The Agenda

    The long-delayed Trump-Xi summit has been rescheduled for May 14th and 15th in Beijing, roughly six weeks later than originally planned due to the Iran war. The White House says the administration is "finalising preparations" for what Trump called a "monumental event." Rare earth supplies, trade, and whether China will help reopen the Strait of Hormuz are all expected to dominate the talks.

  • The EU Has Accused Hungary Of Passing Sensitive NATO Meetings To Russia

    The EU has accused Hungary of leaking details of European Council meetings to Moscow, with Polish Prime Minister Tusk saying it is "no surprise" that Orban's people brief the Kremlin on bloc discussions. Hungary's foreign minister denied the claims, calling them lies designed to mobilise the anti-Orban opposition ahead of upcoming elections.

  • Wall Street Just Had Its Best Bonus Year Ever, While Everyone Else Pays More For (Well… Everything)

    While Americans are raiding retirement accounts and using buy-now-pay-later schemes to cover groceries, Wall Street handed out a record $49.2 billion in bonuses in 2025, up 9% on the year, with the average bonus hitting $246,900. That's the largest bonus pool since records began in 1987, built on $134 billion in trading revenue, with banks profiting handsomely from the same market chaos hammering ordinary people. The ‘comptroller’ notes it's good for New York's tax base, and he's not wrong, Wall Street accounts for 19% of the state's tax revenue.

NEIL’S TAKEAWAYS:

In the United States
Consumer sentiment just dropped to its lowest level of 2026, coming in at 55.5 on the University of Michigan index. And the way that number broke down tells you everything. Interviews done before the US-Iran conflict actually showed things were improving. Then nine days of post-war responses came in and completely wiped out those gains.

And it's not hard to see why. Gas prices are up 32% since the strikes began in late February. The average household is now looking at an extra $740 in fuel costs this year. That money doesn't appear out of nowhere; it gets pulled from other spending. Retailers are already noticing it, and the data backs it up.

The part I think is being missed is the split. Higher-income households, the ones sitting on stock portfolios that did well last year, are still spending. They're not feeling this the same way. But lower and middle-income households are. They're shopping more often but buying less each time. The headline number of 55.5 hides just how different this feels depending on where you sit financially.

Prepare: Watch discretionary spending data closely over the next few weeks, because the gap between what high earners are doing and what everyone else is doing will start showing up in earnings reports.

Across Europe:
The OECD just cut its eurozone growth forecast for 2026 down to 0.8%, with both Germany and France revised to the same figure. At the same time, the inflation forecast was revised up to 2.6%. The reason for both is the same: the Iran war has sent energy prices surging, and Europe is feeling it faster and harder than almost anywhere else.

The UK is getting hit the hardest of any G20 economy in these new forecasts. Growth was cut from 1.2% to just 0.7%, and UK inflation is now expected to hit 4.0% this year, up from 2.5% just a few months ago. The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% on March 19 and now expects inflation to sit between 3 and 3.5% over the next few quarters. That is a dramatic shift from what they were saying in January.

What makes all of this more immediate is what is already happening to ordinary households across the continent. In the UK, the Resolution Foundation warned that sustained energy prices could add around £500 to a typical household's annual energy bill, with lower-income households taking the biggest hit.

Prepare: Europe's energy exposure is real and it is not going away quickly. Stay very selective with consumer-facing businesses, especially those reliant on discretionary spending or high energy inputs. The UK in particular looks vulnerable with high inflation and weak growth running together. Quality balance sheets and companies with pricing power are the places to be right now.

On the Global Stage:
China, India, Japan and South Korea together account for 75% of the oil and 59% of the LNG that normally flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Every single economy of significance in the region is a net oil importer.

Japan has already started drawing down emergency reserves, releasing 80 million barrels of oil, the equivalent of 45 days of domestic demand, to try to keep prices from spiralling. Asian stock markets have fallen far harder than US markets since the war began. It reflects just how exposed the region is to what happens in the Gulf. Goldman warned this week that if energy prices stay elevated, the reasonably positive growth outlook most of Asia had going into 2026 could be wiped out entirely.

But the second shock is the one that has not hit yet, and I think it is being underestimated. The Gulf is one of the world's most important sources of fertiliser inputs, particularly urea and ammonia, which are critical for growing food. Prices for urea are already up more than 40% since mid-February. Brazil, which supplies around 60% of the world's soybeans, relies on the Gulf for nearly half its fertiliser supply. Thai rice exports to the Middle East have effectively stopped. The UN World Food Programme has already issued warnings.

Prepare: Asia-facing positions need a hard look right now, particularly anything tied to energy-intensive manufacturing or import-dependent economies like the Philippines, Thailand and South Korea. On food, watch agricultural commodity prices and fertiliser-exposed sectors closely over the next two quarters.

3. Chart Of The Week

The World Just Cracked Open Its Emergency Oil Piggy Bank

The IEA and its members agreed to release a record 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles on March 11th, the biggest coordinated release ever.

IEA members are required to hold 90 days of emergency reserves, and most do, with Japan and South Korea sitting on 200+ days' worth, given they import almost everything.

NZ & Australia are the awkward outliers, at just 88 & 49 days (per this graph - but now MUCH lower!), Australia is the only IEA member below the minimum.

The US, now a net exporter, isn't bound by the rule but still holds the world's largest reserve at 415 million barrels.

4. Market Overview

S&P 500 (U.S.)
The S&P 500 went down this week because investors got worried again that inflation isn’t slowing fast enough, and the Federal Reserve might keep interest rates high for longer. Tech and growth stocks took the hardest hit, and rising bond yields made risk‑taking feel less comfy, so the index ended the week lower even though it started strong.

FTSE 100 (UK)
The FTSE 100 went up this week, helped by banks and other financial companies doing well again. Mining and energy stocks also bounced a bit, and worrying global headlines calmed down a little, which made people more comfortable taking risks. The Bank of England stayed cautious, but that didn’t scare the market as much as it did earlier.

S&P/TSX Composite (Canada)
The S&P/TSX Composite also rose this week, mainly because commodity prices stopped falling so hard. Energy and mining stocks got a boost as oil and metals steadied, and the Bank of Canada didn’t sound like it was in a rush to hike rates again, which made investors feel a bit more confident about risk‑taking.

ASX 200 (Australia)
The ASX 200 went up this week as miners and energy stocks bounced back from earlier losses. Commodity prices stabilised, and the RBA’s comments suggested we might be near the end of rate hikes, which helped banks and other interest‑rate‑sensitive parts of the market. That mix pushed the index higher by the end of the week.

🇺🇸 United States – S&P 500

  • High: 6,650.00

    Low: 6,412.42

🇬🇧 UK - FTSE 100

  • High: 10,116.29

  • Low: 9,672.42

🇨🇦 Canada – TSX Composite

  • High: 32,503.14

  • Low: 31,521.65

🇦🇺 Australia – ASX 200

  • High: 8,557.10

  • Low: 8,276.50

Cryptocurrency:

  • Bitcoin (BTC): -6.5%

  • Ethereum (ETH): -7.8%

  • Tether (USDT): 0.0%

  • BNB (BNB): -5.5%

  • XRP (XRP): -7.6%

  • USDC (USDC): 0.0%

  • Solana (SOL): -7.2%

  • TRON (TRX): 1.0%

  • Figure Heloc (FIGR_HELOC): 1.7%

  • Dogecoin (DOGE): -4.6%

Metals Market:

Gold–Silver Ratio: ~64:1, the gold–silver ratio fell to about 64–64.5, silver went up more than gold, by around 5–8%. This happened because silver jumped back after crashing to a low near 61.76 USD on the 23rd, while gold stayed roughly flat in the low‑4,300s range, as worries about war eased, traders bought back silver they had sold short, and worries about a strong dollar and higher interest rates kept gold from moving as much.

Gold & Silver:

  • Gold: Fell 1.75% with a Week High: $4,496.00 & Week Low: $4,101.45

  • Silver: Was flat 0.24% with a Week High: $74.61 & Week Low: $61.06

5. Faith & Success

❝

“The path of the righteous is like the morning sun, shining ever brighter till the full light of day.”

— Proverbs 4:18

I was thinking a lot about stress and anxiety this week… not for myself personally fortunately. Most of my stress is work related and self inflicted! 

But I was thinking about stress & anxiety from the perspective of others around the World…

Mainly because my brain thinks in terms of patterns, and the patterns I'm seeing and hearing right now are focused upon this constant state of worry. People are anxious and stressed because of the current Iran war situation (& potential energy lockdowns) and don't know what to do about it, they feel helpless, they feel powerless. 

I was also thinking about stress levels, which are incredibly high right now… again, mainly due to the Iran war, but also because so many people are worried about their job, their income and their current lifestyle (which is about to change for the worst for many people).  

This verse reminds me that if we simply do the right thing, even in tough times, we’ll come out brighter on the other side (eventually). Of course, that’s not to say we won’t have a bumpy road ahead, because many of us will - it’s simply inevitable. Yet it’s really about doing the right thing on that (often) tough journey.

This week, trust the process or period you’re in right now. Even if the results feel slow, remember that steady progress does eventually compound to give you great results later.

Look at me renovating the castle… It’s been 3 years or non stop vans, trucks and dozens of workmen on site every day with almost nothing to show for it (visually I mean)…

Yet under the surface, the foundations and stone work is now so solid, it would take a serious blast to even create a dent!

And that’s just the point, ‘doing it right’ is always harder than just making things look good on the surface.

So even if you feel that you're majorly underprepared or underperforming right now - it’s ok. Trust the process. Just keep moving forward, step by step, day by day. Eventually it will work out for your good.

Until next time,

God Bless,

Neil,

Digital Income Mastery: LINK

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This newsletter is 100% FREE & is designed to help your thinking, not direct it. These newsletters shall NOT be construed as tax, legal, or financial advice and may be outdated or inaccurate; all decisions made as a result of this information are yours alone.

Trading/Liability: Neil McCoy-Ward operates/trades under a private Ltd company within the Isle of Man.