Opening Note…

Welcome back again this week… first the personal stuff - then the news.

We’re back in Bangkok again for the next week or so before flying home to the Isle Of Man…

Our flight home has been delayed slightly after a HUGE bee swarm has taken up residence in my recording studio at the castle… ha

You can imagine the caretakers face as he was going around checking the house ready for our return - only to find a huge swarm is now squatting in the house!

Apparently, they found an ‘air vent’ (that we had no idea was there)… and the bees decided that they liked my dark and cool recording studio.

If you’re in the Patreon, you probably remember a couple of years back the episode at the castle where the bee swarm took up residence in the top floor and we had to cut out all the walls to remove them! (Crazy)

I’ll also share some more personal stuff at the end of the newsletter… (including a new bantam chick that appeared out of nowhere a the castle!) And a shocking situation that occurred for me yesterday in Bangkok.

Table of Contents

• 1. Weekly Spotlight

• 2. Quick Takes

• 3. Chart Of The Week

• 4. Market Overview

• 5. Faith & Success

1. Weekly Spotlight

The Oil Crisis Is Calming. Here's Who Won

Cast your mind back just a few weeks. Markets could talk about one thing only: the oil shock, and how much worse it was about to get (I said the same thing).

Now look at where we actually are: On June 24th, US oil (WTI) dropped below $70 a barrel and Brent fell to around $73.50, both their lowest since the war began. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz doubled in 24 hours to its highest level since February (although… although... what you see and what the reality is - are two very different things!) Traffic is still only a fraction of what it was before the war…

People (& analysts) seem to be missing this crucial point. We are still drawing down reserves - that’s why we’re not seeing shortages, even though we are using more oil than is being shipped.

However, the US-Iran deal is holding (sort of), and traders can already feel the strait reopening. Although a Singapore tanker was hit by an Iranian missile today for not getting permission from Iran to pass, so…

And while you may see (most) headlines saying the US caved in and 'lost', it depends on which Country you are in. In Trump hating Countries, the media says the US lost another war, and they were defeated badly by Iran. In other places, they say that the US won a great victory against Iran.

I’d say that neither headlines are true…

But several things have changed…

While Europe and Asia scrambled for cargoes at brutal prices, America (the world's biggest energy producer) was exporting close to 13 million barrels a day into a market and getting top dollar. The higher the panic ran, the more the US profited.

Funnily enough, Russia won too. The same Russia everyone was sanctioning got those sanctions loosened mid-war so its stranded oil could find buyers. Funny how that works isn’t it?

And on the other side of that trade you had everyone who imports their energy; Europe paid through the nose, and across Asia, oil-importing nations were hit with inflation just as their economies were already slowing.

There’s always a lesson to be learnt here…

Panic is where wealth changes hands and the calm players take it from the scared ones, every single time. Plus, there was plenty of insider trading going on (highly illegal), unless your above the law of course.

With the oil threat fading, you'd expect the Fed to ease off a little. Nope… Instead it has stayed firmly hawkish, and the dollar has shot to its highest level in over a year. To me, that tells you something important is going on beneath the surface…

Which is where gold is acting slightly irrational. Yes, it has been falling, dropping below $4,000 this week for the first time since November and sitting well off its January record. But here's the thing: with a Fed this hawkish and a crisis coming to an end, the textbook says gold should have been hammered far harder than that.

So why hasn't it? That's the part I find fascinating… That gap, between how far gold has fallen and how far it "should" have, is the whole point.

It's also the subject of a full deep dive I'm dropping on my Patreon tomorrow: why gold is refusing to fall the way it typically does, and what I think it's really telling us all about the price and where it’s going.

If you're not in the Patreon yet, this is the one to join for. Head over and sign up now so it's sitting in your inbox the moment it goes live: LINK

2. Quick Takes

Here are the other top stories shaping the week:

• India Is Set To Buy A Record Amount Of Russian Oil This Month

  India is on track to import more Russian crude this June than in any month in history, around 2.35 million barrels a day. Russian oil now makes up over half of everything India imports. The US let the waiver on Russian sanctions expire last week, so this may be a last gorge before supply tightens

• China Is Killing Europe's Rearmament Plans

  Europe wants to rearm fast, but China controls the materials to do it. For 17 of the 34 minerals the EU calls critical, China handles at least 70% of global mining or refining, and eight are already under export controls. You can't build a missile without them, and finding alternatives would take years. Rheinmetall says it stockpiled enough to last years, but that won't fix the deeper problem

• Europe Just Took A Big Step Toward A Digital Euro

  A European Parliament committee voted this week to push ahead with the digital euro that ECB boss (& convicted criminal) Christine Lagarde has been pushing. The official reasoning is independence from US firms like Visa and Mastercard, but as we know… the truth is that CBDCs hand the ECB an unprecedented window into how ordinary people spend. Lagarde insists cash "isn't going anywhere" and that the bank won't see personal data, yet once the infrastructure exists, those promises rest entirely on the goodwill of whoever runs it. Online and offline versions are targeted for 2029, leaving plenty of time to prepare for this... (please do prepare)

• The Fed's "Doomsday" Stress Test Cleared Every Big Bank For Bigger Payouts

  The Fed ran all 32 major US banks through a hypothetical 10% unemployment, a 58% stock crash, and a 30% drop in house prices. Every one survived, absorbing a projected $708 billion in losses while staying above minimum capital levels. That clears them to ramp up dividends and buybacks. The catch worth noting was $200 billion of those losses came from credit cards alone

• New York's Democratic Primaries 

  Candidates backed by NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani swept Democratic primaries across New York state, a clear sign the party's left wing is winning the fight. As I have said previously its just a matter of time before it all comes crumbling down… oh and he approved a million new bills of rent controls City wide!

• Trump Cancelled His Own Housing Bill Signing

  Trump abruptly scrapped the signing ceremony for a major bipartisan housing bill, saying Congress has to pass a strict voter ID law before he'll put pen to paper. It's an unusual move given the bill was packed with his own priorities and seen as an easy win for Republicans heading into the midterms. He's willing to hold popular, ready-to-go legislation to force through demands, even when his own party wanted the quick victory. Only time will tell if this was a smart strategic move or not…

• Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer Has Resigned (FINALLY!)

  Keir Starmer has stepped down as PM, with Andy Burnham the only candidate in line to replace him - (nothing suspicious about that at all). Reports suggest Burnham would FIRE the useless Chancellor (Rachel Reeves) if he takes over - which probably means a massive reshuffle. The fact that there is only one candidate running shows that this is all one big scam… (revolving doors come to mind)

• London's West End Is About To Be Blanketed In AI Facial Recognition

  The Met Police plan to install permanent live facial recognition cameras across the West End, including Soho and the theatre district by year's end. A trial in South London already scanned 470,000 faces. Police say 80% of Londoners back it and LOVE it - (yeah, sure they do…). Like any poll where the results are this wrong, I would love to see how they got these results and what questions they asked.

• Oracle Cut 21,000 Jobs To Fund Its AI Data Centre Binge

  Oracle revealed in its annual filing that it cut 21,000 staff, about 13% of its workforce over the past year, openly tying the layoffs to paying for AI infrastructure. The cuts free up an estimated $8 to $10 billion in cash to pour into data centres. It's yet another example of the year's pattern where profitable companies posting record numbers while gutting their own staff, with AI named as both the reason for the growth and the excuse for the cuts

• 70% Of Americans Now Don't Want A Data Centre Anywhere Near Them

  A Gallup poll found 70% of Americans oppose new data centres being built in their local area, with nearly half strongly against. The AI boom is running straight into the people who will live next to it: noise, water problems, and power strain (leading to higher electricity costs). Fourteen states are now weighing bans, and one California city just voted 86% in favour of a permanent block

Opportunity:

Modules 7 and 8 of Digital Income Sales - will be released tomorrow.

Here’s the best price currently on offer for the FULL 3 course program that will end when the final module is uploaded shortly: LINK

3. Chart Of The Week

The World Just Burned Through Nearly 300 Years Of Rare Earth Supply In The Last Five Years

In just five years, the estimated supply life of rare earth metals has collapsed from 500 years to 218, a drop of 282 years. 

"Supply life" is simply how long known reserves would last at the current rate we dig them up, so at 2020's pace we had roughly 500 years left in the ground; by 2025, faster mining and surging demand had cut that to barely 218 years.

Lithium saw a halving from 255 years to 128 years, while uranium slipped from 121 years to 90 years. It's the critical minerals behind AI, tech, and defence that are draining fast, while old-school commodities like oil, gold, and silver barely moved. 

The other worrying part is that this stuff is concentrated in a handful of countries, so a shrinking cushion hands enormous leverage to whoever controls the supply.

4. Market Overview

S&P 500 (U.S.) Fell on the week. Tech did most of the damage, with Alphabet getting hit early on AI talent leaving for OpenAI and Anthropic, then the whole sector slid again Friday on reports OpenAI might push its IPO out to 2027. Rising rate worries didn't help. Money rotated out of mega-cap tech into industrials, health, and staples, so the breadth wasn't terrible underneath, but the headline names dragged the index lower.

FTSE 100 (UK) Crept higher. Being light on tech actually worked in its favour this week while the rest of the world fretted over AI. Banks and takeover chatter did alot of the movment, with EasyJet jumping, 3i, and Barclays getting a lift from the Fed stress tests. Energy was the soft spot, with BP and Shell sliding as oil drifted back to pre-Iran-war levels.

S&P/TSX Composite (Canada) Rose. Materials led the way, and the financials held firm, which was enough to offset weakness in energy as oil kept sliding. Like the FTSE, it mostly sidestepped the tech selling thanks to its commodities .

ASX 200 (Australia) Fell. Couldn't escape the global tech selling, and gold miners got dragged down as bullion hit a seven-month low. The big banks fell too, energy names like Woodside and Santos dropped with oil, and Judo Capital cratered after slashing its earnings outlook.

🇺🇸 United States – S&P 500

• High: 7,528

• Low: 7,303

🇬🇧 UK - FTSE 100

• High: 10,569

• Low: 10,338

🇨🇦 Canada – TSX Composite

• High: 35,121

• Low: 34,566

🇦🇺 Australia – ASX 200

• High: 8,847

• Low: 8,715

Cryptocurrency:

• Bitcoin (BTC): -4.8%

• Ethereum (ETH): -7.5%

• Tether (USDT): 0.0%

• BNB (BNB): -2.4%

• USDC (USDC): 0.0%

• XRP (XRP): -8.0%

• Solana (SOL): 4.5%

• TRON (TRX): -0.4%

• Figure Heloc (FIGR_HELOC): 1.9%

• Hyperliquid (HYPE): -7.0%

Metals Market:

Gold–Silver Ratio: ~68:1, Rose this week, climbing back toward its highest level since the Iran war peak. The driver was the Fed. Chair Warsh's hawkish turn and a run of rate-hike bets sent the dollar to a one-year high, which hit both metals, but silver took the harder knock because so much of its demand is industrial and rate-sensitive.

Gold & Silver:

• Gold:  -1.34% with a Week High: $4,220 & Week Low: $3,960

• Silver: -7.92% with a Week High: $67.14 & Week Low: $55.70

5. Faith & Success

I was thinking about this quote today after I helped a lady yesterday…

It was a strange situation, because she looked very well put together, wearing a beautiful silk dress, designer hand bag, hair nicely kept… but she was stumbling and looked drunk or high.

Other people saw her too in this busy area and just kept walking by.

So I instantly assumed the worst that she was a drug addict or had some serious issues going on (incorrect judgement) - so I walked by too.

But then I stopped and decided to go back, because something just didn’t feel right about the situation.

As I went back I saw that the left side of her dress (not in my previous view) was covered in blood (running down her arm).

And I’m no stranger to a lot of blood, if I told you some of the people I’ve had to patch up over the years it would turn your stomach - I’ve seen some unbelievable things - especially in the Army.

In fact, I remember when I was a young kid, an old man was walking past me in the street and he tripped over and hit his head on the floor - it was bad!

By passers were shocked at finding me sat there holding his head in my lap as I waited for the ambulance that the neighbour had called. Fortunately he was ok, I know because he was on my paper round years later when I turned 13 - I never told him that it was me that helped him and called the neighbour to get the ambulance…

But anyway, I’m getting off track here… !

I went back to the lady and fortunately I was able to speak with her a little. She was completely oblivious that she was even bleeding… I held her up (yes avoiding the blood) as another person then stopped to help as well.

I identified that she had just had her blood taken and for whatever reason, it just wasn’t stopping. I told her to bend her arm and keep pressure on it - but even then after a few minutes, it still wasn’t stopping - so I told the other person to call an ambulance for her right away.

I’ve never seen that before where it wouldn’t stop - so I can only assume that she had taken a blood thinner or similar? (I’m not sure) - because it should have stopped when pressure was applied.

The other point here is that I was actually on my way somewhere, and I was in a hurry! But I still stoped and went back to help her, because it was the right thing to do.

And “whoever refreshes others will be refreshed” - this is why I think that daily reading or devotionals are so important. Had that not been ‘fresh’ in my mind, there’s a risk I might not have stopped.

If I hadn’t had stopped, she would have eventually collapsed, risking further injury. Hence, why I really like this verse:

On another more positive note!

‘Speckie’ one of our beloved hens - had been MIA (missing in action) for the last 3 weeks at the castle. Trying to even find her would have been like finding a needle in a haystack…

If you’ve watched the video series, you’ll know that we have acres of dense vegetation in parts, so wading through it to find hens nesting is near on impossible.

I knew that’s where she had gone, I’ve seen this play out before… !

21 days exactly and she returns with a cute little black fur ball tagging along. What happened to all the others that she would have hatched - I have no idea…

But the chick was in such a bad condition with a wound (attacked by something?) And what looked like a broken leg - that the caretaker decided to give the chick to his daughters to hand raise.

You’ll get to see the other new chicks shortly in upcoming episodes of the castle series.

And I’ll let you know how Speckie Junior gets along… and if he/she survives…

Have a brilliant week my friend!

Take care, and God Bless.

Neil,

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DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is 100% FREE & is designed to help your thinking, not direct it. These newsletters shall NOT be construed as tax, legal, or financial advice and may be outdated or inaccurate; all decisions made as a result of this information are yours alone.

Trading/Liability: Neil McCoy-Ward operates/trades under a private Ltd company within the Isle of Man.

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