Your IMPORTANT Weekly Briefing: (24th October 2025)

The Neil McCoy-Ward Newsletter

October 24, 2025

Opening Note…

Welcome back to this week’s newsletter!

I’m writing this newsletter today after a very very long and tiring day filming around central London. It was great to bump into a few subscribers on the streets and the Underground!

It’s funny because as I was walking around, I felt as though someone in Government watched my video last year (that got 2m views as of today) and said: “right, this Neil guy keeps coming here every year and filming the absolute worst parts of London, so I want you all to watch this video and then go to those locations and clean up the stuff that he complains about!” Ha.

Because all the locations I filmed last year had been completely cleaned up, in fact there were areas where there wasn't so much as a piece of litter on the floor. I was quite staggered. Another thing I noticed was just how many tourist there were. When I came at the exact same time last year, they didn't seem to be anywhere near as many tourists. So I definitely noticed an increase on this trip.

But wait, does that mean it was a beautiful day and London has become a utopia? No. Heck no! Ha! The tourist areas were spotless, but outside… boy oh boy, talk about a decline.

I need to check out one more area tomorrow that I couldn’t get to today, then I’ll start editing the video for you over the next few days.

Now let's break down the latest...

Table of Contents

1. Weekly Spotlight

U.S. Sanctions on Russia’s Big Oil Firms

I’d say this was the biggest news this week… honestly, I kind of saw it coming, but I was still hoping those talks with Putin would calm things down. Instead, it feels like everything has gone the opposite way.

The Trump administration just hit Russia with new, heavy sanctions on its two biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. 

Here’s a breakdown of why and what happened:

  • The U.S. is trying to cut off a major stream of funding that Russia uses to fund the war in Ukraine

  • As soon as the news dropped, global oil prices jumped by about 4–6%

  • And when oil prices go up, it tends to push up the prices of fuel, heating, transportation, and more (everything needs energy)

We may soon come to notice this in our everyday lives; maybe not instantly, but it could show up in higher energy bills, more expensive petrol and groceries creeping up in price.

Companies get squeezed from the higher oil prices who then pass it on to customers and we end up paying more. This happens even if the companies don't use Russian oil. An example of this is already seen with China scaling back their purchases and India looking like it will follow suit. This means they will place their oil demand on companies that the West also uses, which will increase oil prices.

This especially affects places like the UK and Europe, where the economy is already fragile; this just adds another layer of pressure. Imagine the global economy as a giant spiderweb; if someone plucks a strand on one side, the vibrations ripple throughout. The USA will be a lot more protected than other nations due to having greater energy independence.  

2. Quick Takes

Here are the top stories shaping the week:

  • UK-Made Storm Shadow Missiles Used In Deep Strike On Russia
    Ukraine has used British-made Storm Shadow missiles for the first time to hit deep inside Russia, striking a gunpowder and explosives facility in the Bryansk region. The long-range cruise missiles, built by the UK and France, travelled around 250 kilometres, hitting one of Russia’s main rocket-fuel plants. Moscow confirmed the attack and said fragments suggested Storm Shadows were used, Kyiv called it part of a “massive combined air strike.” - This is where the lines between who is involved in the war will start to blur, which will make things very open to escalation. I saw another article this week that talked about how the UK will start mass-producing Ukrainian interceptor drones within weeks.

  • Three Men Arrested In London On Suspicion Of Spying For Russia
    Counter-terror police arrested three men in London under the UK’s new National Security Act, accused of working for Russian intelligence. The suspects, aged 44, 45 and 48, were picked up in coordinated raids across west and north London and charged with assisting a foreign intelligence service. The case is tied to MI5’s growing list of suspected Russian agents operating in Britain, following earlier arrests of Bulgarian nationals linked to espionage. - I talked about this in last week's newsletter, how things are becoming more like the Cold War, and now we're seeing espionage crackdowns.

  • Poland Warns Putin Could Be Arrested If He Flies Through Its Airspace
    Poland has warned it might intercept and detain Vladimir Putin if his aircraft crosses Polish-controlled airspace on the way to Hungary for a planned summit with Donald Trump. Warsaw said the warning is tied to the International Criminal Court warrant issued for Putin over war crimes in Ukraine. Poland’s foreign minister said he “cannot guarantee” an independent court wouldn’t order a forced landing to hand him over to The Hague. - This made me laugh, how can you possibly get Putin to land his plane? He would just say “no thanks” and keep on flying, in fact, I doubt he would even give a response other than a smile or a chuckle.

  • Trump Pardons Former Binance Boss, Declares ‘War On Crypto’ Over
    Donald Trump has pardoned Changpeng Zhao, the former Binance CEO jailed in 2023 for anti-money-laundering violations. The move wipes out the rest of his four-month sentence and signals a dramatic pivot in US crypto policy. Trump called the crackdown “a mistake that cost America billions in innovation.” Zhao, once the face of crypto excess, walked free to cheers from crypto traders and a 12% Bitcoin rally within hours. Washington insiders say the pardon is part of Trump’s plan to make the US “the global home of digital assets,” reversing Biden-era enforcement drives.

  • Irish Riots Erupt After Assault, Media Tiptoed Around The Cause
    Riots have hit Dublin again outside the Citywest hotel housing asylum seekers, with mobs throwing fireworks and burning police vehicles. Sixteen people have already been charged after three nights of chaos. What mainstream outlets skipped for nearly a day, though, is what set it off: the sexual assault of a 10-year-old girl by a 26-year-old asylum seeker living at the site. Once that detail surfaced, officials scrambled to calm the backlash, with police urging parents to keep young people away and riot units standing guard for the week. Four officers have been hospitalised. The Taoiseach called the violence “vile,” but locals say anger has been brewing for months over housing shortages and asylum placements. 

  • Reeves Eyes Income Tax Hike To Plug £30bn Hole
    Rachel Reeves is weighing up breaking Labour’s flagship tax promise by raising income tax at next month’s budget. Treasury insiders say the chancellor is staring down a £30 billion shortfall after weak growth forecasts and policy reversals on welfare and fuel support. One option on the table: adding 1% to the basic rate, raising £8 billion, though it would hit households already squeezed by prices. Higher-rate rises are less painful politically but barely dent the gap. Reeves is torn: she wants fiscal “headroom” to avoid repeat hikes later, but knows another broken pledge, after last year’s national insurance rise, could wreck her credibility. Some aides push a 2% on-income, 2% off-NI swap to shift the load to pensioners and landlords (it reminds me of musical chairs).

  • Longest Shutdown Since 2019 Hits Day 22 With No Deal In Sight

    Washington’s shutdown is now 22 days old, the second-longest ever, and the parties are still dug in. Sen. Jeff Merkley has been speaking for 17+ hours while the Senate preps (or stalls) a 12th vote to reopen. How someone can speak for 17 hours is beyond me… !!!
    The fight is over tying a funding bill to extending Affordable Care Act subsidies: the House has passed 11 stopgaps, the Senate failed again on 20 Oct despite three Democrats crossing over, and the 60-vote hurdle remains. Trump says he won’t meet Democrats until the government reopens; Schumer says premiums will spike without action. Thousands of federal workers are furloughed, active-duty troops got their pay protected to 31 Oct, and a judge in San Francisco paused mass layoffs the White House wanted during the shutdown. States warn SNAP payments could be hit from 1 Nov if this drags on. - Looking ahead, if the shutdown drags on for a month or more, we will start to see the economy visibly slow, with increases in unemployment. Any services that were hanging by a thread will begin to show major lapses, and some damage may become harder to reverse (for example, delays in research, permits, and infrastructure).

  • Germany’s Hospitality Sector Collapsing As Economy Unravels
    Germany’s economy is tanking, and the hospitality sector is taking the hit. Official stats show restaurants, hotels, and caterers lost 3.5% of real turnover in August, even in the peak holiday season. Insolvencies are up 27% year-on-year, with around 2,500 hospitality businesses expected to vanish in 2025. Since 2018, German industry has lost nearly a quarter of its production volume and over a million private-sector jobs, while the public sector keeps expanding. High energy costs, taxes, and endless regulations are gutting competitiveness. Berlin’s fix for this is to cut VAT on restaurant meals back to 7% in 2026, not exactly the most genius idea…

  • AWS Outage Blamed On Automation Bug That Broke The Internet
    Amazon says this week’s AWS meltdown, which took out Signal, Snapchat, and even smart beds, came from a single empty DNS record in its Virginia data centre. The glitch hit DynamoDB, the database backbone for thousands of services, and the automated system meant to fix it just… didn’t. Engineers had to step in manually while millions of users across 2,000 companies saw apps freeze. Amazon has now disabled the faulty automation and promised extra safeguards. - I would say the bug that caused this is not really the problem that we should be talking about; it's more the fact that the entire internet relies on three cloud giants. That everyone is reliant on. Heck, even my courses platform went down ALL DAY. And there was nothing I could do about it. That’s worrying.

  • Trump Freezes All Trade Talks With Canada Over Reagan Ad Row
    Donald Trump has abruptly cut off trade negotiations with Canada after blasting a Canadian government ad that used old Ronald Reagan audio to criticise US tariffs. The ad, made by Ontario’s government, spliced Reagan’s 1987 speech on “fair trade” to make it sound like he opposed tariffs, something the Reagan Foundation says was “misrepresented” and used without permission. Trump accused Canada of trying to sway US court decisions and called its behaviour “egregious.” Prime Minister Mark Carney, who earlier vowed to double exports beyond the US, hasn’t responded publicly. The fallout threatens a relationship worth nearly C$3.6 billion a day in cross-border trade. Ouch.

NEIL’S TAKEAWAYS:

In the United States
The national debt just blew past $38 trillion. And what’s wild is that it’s rising faster than it ever has outside of an actual crisis. Just the interest being paid on that debt alone is now over $1 trillion a year. And as a reminder, that's more than the US spends on their national defence.

And while that’s happening, we’ve still got the government shutdown dragging on. Hotels, travel businesses, and general hospitality are reporting hundreds of millions in losses every week because people are holding back on spending.

And then we look outside the U.S., and things are heating up with China again. The White House is talking about new export rules that would block any product made with U.S. software from being shipped to China. That might sound small, but it’s actually huge, and it could disrupt the entire semiconductor supply chain, which means tech stocks and markets could react hard.

Prepare: If you’re thinking about this from an investment or planning point of view, the way to play it is pretty straightforward:

  • Companies that don’t rely heavily on debt are going to handle higher interest rates better

  • Companies that make money in lots of different places (not just the U.S. or China) will be more stable

  • Anything tied to government spending or vulnerable to China-related supply-chain issues might have problems

Across Europe
Over in Europe this week, there was actually a bit of good news for once. Consumer confidence in the eurozone has gone up for the second month in a row; it’s still negative, but it’s less negative than before... You can see it too, with households loosening their spending just a touch, and shops and service businesses are noticing a small uptick. It's not a boom, but it’s a sign that the mood isn’t as gloomy as it was before.

Yet, I don’t think the European Central Bank is going to move interest rates too drastically: the economy is still sluggish. Meaning, households, small businesses, almost anyone thinking about loans or expansions, are going to keep feeling that squeeze for a while longer until rates comes down (making debt cheaper).

Prepare: If you’re thinking in terms of where the opportunities might be, look at sectors with steady, long-term demand, like defence, infrastructure, and healthcare; those are safer bets. Any sectors that depend heavily on cheap borrowing or lots of debt are still risky. And if this consumer optimism keeps slowly building, there might be some upside in things like retail or travel, but only where the fundamentals actually make sense. I would personally avoid anything for the time being that relies on people having an excess of disposable income. I saw it today, I heard it from business owners and waiters… people are still spending, they are just spending less.

On the Global Stage

Oil prices jumped again this week after the U.S. hit Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil with fresh sanctions. That shook up global supply chains pretty quickly. You’re already seeing countries in Asia and the Middle East bracing for higher energy costs, and if those prices stick, they’re going to show up in inflation numbers toward the end of the year. This sort of event usually doesn’t stay contained. Once energy gets more expensive, everything that depends on it starts nudging up, too.

At the same time, something unusual happened in Japan. The Bank of Japan actually stepped in and warned that the stock market there might be overheating. That’s not something they say lightly. Tokyo’s markets have been on this big, liquidity-driven rally. When central banks start hinting like that, investors usually take notice.

And on top of all that, the White House confirmed that Trump will meet with China’s Xi Jinping in South Korea soon. The idea is to smooth out tensions on trade, but the markets seem to be on edge about it. There is no doubt that headlines from that meeting are going to move currencies, commodities, and emerging market debt instantly; it’s one of those situations where one comment could swing sentiment in either direction.

Prepare: The environments that tend to hold up best in this kind of setup are the ones that don’t depend heavily on imported energy and can rely on strong domestic demand. Currency stability helps, too. And if you’re watching Asia in particular, this is a moment to stay sharp, because corrections can come fast.

3. Opportunity Of The Week… Earn a Yield on Your Gold (Paid in Gold) With Monetary Metals

Most people hold gold to protect their wealth, but the challenge has always been that Gold is a ‘non recurring’ asset. Meaning that unlike a stock (that pays a dividend) or a house that pays rent, gold pays nothing (but has been the #1 asset for storing value for generations). That’s the toss up. Security vs returns.

But there’s good news, now your gold can give you a return too. Monetary Metals allows you to earn a yield on your gold, paid in gold, by leasing it to vetted businesses while you keep full ownership of your metal. No selling. No trading. Just your gold quietly compounding in ounces over time.

You can currently earn around 4% in physical gold, with free storage. And the ability to fund your account with metal you already own or buy new gold at under 1% over spot. Plus the flexibility to withdraw your metal at any time.

If you already hold gold, this is a way to make it work for you instead of sitting still.

To find out more, understand how it works, and gain peace of mind, fill in the form here: https://www.monetary-metals.com/nmw/

4. Chart Of The Week: Central Banks Double Down On Gold As Inflation Lingers

Global central banks are hoarding gold like it’s 1979 again. Since 2022, they’ve bought over 1,000 tonnes a year, more than double the pace from a decade ago. Between 2022 and 2024 alone, they snapped up 3,220 tonnes, compared to just 1,576 tonnes from 2014–2016. Poland led H1 2025 with 67 tonnes, followed by Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, China, and Türkiye, while 23 countries adding to reserves overall.

The total hoards now sits at around 36,000 tonnes worldwide. With sticky inflation and geopolitical tension refusing to fade, paper promises are looking very floppy! 

5. Market Overview

U.S. markets closed the week on a cautiously upbeat note, with the S&P 500 rising a little over 1%, helped by strength in energy, industrials, and consumer-focused names, while sectors like utilities and staples lagged behind. A lot of the optimism came from anticipation over the upcoming U.S.–China meeting, the new sanctions on Russian oil producers boosting energy stocks, and growing expectations that the Fed may move toward rate cuts as the government shutdown drags on. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 also finished slightly higher after early pressure in banking eased and mining, energy, and pharma stocks picked up momentum on better-than-expected business activity data. Canada was more mixed, with U.S. banking worries pulling futures down late in the week. Though gains in gold and commodities helped the TSX end overall slightly positive. Australia’s ASX 200 inched up around 0.3% as energy and real estate outweighed softer performance in consumer staples, healthcare, and parts of the materials sector.

🇺🇸 United States – S&P 500

  • High: 6,750.83

  • Low: 6,655.98

🇬🇧 UK - FTSE 100

  • High: 9,591.80

  • Low: 9,376.74

🇨🇦 Canada – TSX Composite

  • High: 30,435.60

  • Low: 29,817.71

🇦🇺 Australia – ASX 200

  • High: 9,108.60

  • Low: 8,976.90

Cryptocurrency:

  • Bitcoin (BTC): 6.1%

  • Ethereum (ETH): 6.1%

  • Tether (USDT): 0.0%

  • BNB (BNB): 7.9%

  • XRP (XRP): 10.9%

  • Solana (SOL): 9.0%

  • USDC (USDC): 0.0%

  • Lido Staked Ether (STETH): 6.6%

  • Dogecoin (DOGE): 10.8%

  • TRON (TRX): 1.4%

Metals Market:

Gold Silver Ratio: 84.48. Things have calmed down a little this week as we saw a pullback in gold & silver prices after the recent rally. This is nothing to be worried about, pullbacks are actually healthy as we wait on greater consolidation.

Gold & Silver:

  • Gold: has pulled back to just above the $4,100 mark this week, down 2%.

  • Silver: Silver followed, dropping just shy of 6%, now at $49 an ounce.

6. Faith & Success

❝

“Let all that you do be done in love.”
— 1 Corinthians 16:14

For some reason, this week just felt a lot ‘lighter’ that previous weeks. The news was less about mass deaths, and more about peace deals and trade. Even for me, despite some difficult situations this week that I had to deal with, I decided to not get angry, upset or stressed by the situation. Instead I chose to simply be at peace with what came. To accept people as they came, good or bad.

In fact, for the first time ever, I had a bad experience at the Isle Of Man airport. I always book the more expensive flight when I leave the island because they are more lenient with luggage and carry ons. But I managed to get a lady who was a stand in & just wasn’t having any of it! She said my case was 2cm too wide and I had to check it (and pay for it as an extra bag), I started laughing and said “come on, it’s only 2cm!” Which made her become even more fixed on her position. I explained that I ‘always’ travel with this bag, and it fits in the overhead bin just fine. I then explained that it had my brand new camera and microphone inside and it would get damaged if I checked it in. She simply wouldn’t budge. I tried everything, I even told her that it was a Rimowa and was very valuable. Again, she shrugged her shoulders.

At that point I had to just laugh. I smiled and said under my breath, ‘God you really are testing me today!’ - It was at that point that I stopped, relfected and realised what the test was… I had read the verse: Let all that you do be done in love. Which isn’t always easy for me, but the challenge then came: ‘would Neil get frustrated at this lady, or he would ‘get off it’ and just let it be?’ So I decided to get off it, and I smiled at her and said “you’re right, you’re here to do your job, and I appreciate that, I don’t want to make this difficult for you - so whatever you think is best.”

At that point, she looked shocked, then her shock turned into a smile and she said, “well, I guess on this one occasion I can help you out a little here, I mean as you say, this is some expensive stuff isn’t it? And we both know what these baggage handlers can be like in London! They don’t care do they? It’s not the baggage handlers here who are kind and courteous with your bags”

I just nodded and smiled. She then helped me out so that I didn’t need to check all of my equipment.

This occurrence reminds us how much lighter life feels when we lead with kindness. Whether it’s in how we speak, work, or show up for others, love has a quiet way of improving everything it touches. It’s not about grand gestures, it’s just small, genuine moments that make the day a little brighter for someone else who may feel under appreciated.

Thanks for reading this week’s newsletter. Have an amazing weekend.

I’ll be in London for one more day before flying off to Bangkok on Sunday.

See you next time,

God Bless,

Neil,

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DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is 100% FREE & is designed to help your thinking, not direct it. These newsletters shall NOT be construed as tax, legal, or financial advice and may be outdated or inaccurate; all decisions made as a result of this information are yours alone.

Trading/Liability: Neil McCoy-Ward operates/trades under a private Ltd company within the Isle of Man.