Opening Note…

Welcome back.

This week really has been action packed with news, especially from a UK perspective.

But there’s been one story that’s set the terms for everything this week: The US’s bombardment of Iran for a thirteenth straight night…

of course, Tehran hit back across the Gulf and even named (UK base) RAF Fairford a "legitimate target," while Trump promised bigger strikes to come.

Currently, no one is talking about a ceasefire.

And markets have now realised the truth (finally). As a result, Brent is back above $100 - up nearly 38% this month after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb strait.

Ten-year Treasury yields are near 4.7%, gold above $4,100, and tech just suffered its sharpest selloff in months.

Plus an oil shock and an AI de-rating at once… (yikes!)

This week's issue asks one question: how long can markets absorb a conflict they never priced in?

Table of Contents

• 1. Weekly Spotlight

• 2. Quick Takes

• 3. Chart Of The Week

• 4. Market Overview

• 5. Faith & Success

1. Weekly Spotlight

Tariffs…

Remember when the Supreme Court struck down Trump's tariffs back in February and everyone assumed that was the end of it?

Well, this week the administration found another way to enforce it.

Starting today, the US is imposing double-digit tariffs on imports from 60 countries, officially over ‘forced-labour’ violations.

Most trading partners face 12.5%, including Vietnam and China, while a lower 10% rate applies to 17 countries that already have some rules in place, including the UK, Canada and Mexico.

The stated reason is that these countries aren't cracking down hard enough on goods tied to China's Xinjiang region, mainly cotton and solar panels.

The forced-labour framing is real enough on paper, but I think the timing gives it away.

If we rewind a bit, you may remember that last year Trump imposed sweeping global tariffs using emergency powers, a law called IEEPA.

In February the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that IEEPA doesn't give a president that power, because the Constitution hands taxing authority to Congress, not the White House.

So he pivoted to a backup, a temporary 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act. But that one came with a 150-day timer, and it expires today.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent actually said out loud that he expected the rates would be "back to their old rate" once the Section 122 tariff ran out. So to me this was never really about forced labour…

This new version leans on that same 1974 Act, which lets a president punish countries for unfair trade practices after an investigation (you can already see the next fight coming).

2. Quick Takes

Here are the other top stories shaping the week:

• Trump Says He's "Close" To A Massive New Attack On Iran

  Trump said he's "close to making a decision" on a massive strike against Iran, bigger than February's opening salvo, saying Tehran "haven't received enough pain yet" to negotiate. The House has already voted to force a withdrawal, and all-out war polls badly at home. Trump insists Israel would join "in two minutes" but that the US doesn't need anyone

• Iran Threatens To Bomb A British Airbase

  Iran has warned it could hit RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire after a US B1 bomber flew from the base towards Iran, with the Revolutionary Guard calling any base used to attack it a "legitimate target". The MoD won't confirm it was used (of course), but the government says forces are ready to defend the UK "24/7". Given Iran already had one attack on British soil foiled this year, that threat is a lot less abstract than Westminster would like you to think (I made a walk and talk video about this today).

• Only 6% Of Britons Would Volunteer To Fight If The UK Was Invaded

  A YouGov poll found just 6% of Britons would sign up to defend the country against an imminent invasion, the lowest ever recorded, with 17% flatly refusing any order and 53% not trusting the armed forces to defend Britain at all. All this after months of politicians warning the era of peace is over. The public's answer seems to be: not my problem, and definitely not with this army

• Oil Hit $100

  Brent crude jumped past $100 a barrel, its highest since May, after Yemen's Houthis struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and Trump warned he'll hold Iran responsible, promising "major military punishment". Hormuz was already choked, and now a second chokepoint is under fire. This is exactly the scenario oil markets have been dreading.

• UK Mortgage Rates Have Climbed Back

  Average UK mortgage rates have risen back to last month's levels as the Middle East conflict convinces markets that rate cuts are off the table, with all five big banks hiking fixed deals and around 100 products pulled. The Bank of England reckons five million homeowners will see repayments rise by 2028

• The US House Just Passed A Record $1.15 Trillion Defence Bill

  The House narrowly passed (216 to 212) a record $1.15 trillion military budget funding the Iran war, troop pay rises, and $750 million in new military ties with Israel. Democrats objected to the price tag while social spending gets slashed, and a few Republicans broke ranks over the Israel provision

• The US Just Signed A Nuclear Enrichment Deal with Saudi Arabia

  Trump has signed a deal giving Saudi Arabia a pathway to enriching nuclear fuel using US-built reactors, a sharp break from decades of non-proliferation policy. Enrichment for civilian power can, in theory, lead to a bomb. And here's the awkward part: the US is bombing Iran right now partly to stop it enriching uranium, while handing Iran's biggest rival the exact same capability

• The EU Passed Its Biggest Russia Sanctions In Years, After Greece Won A Big Loophole

  The EU agreed its 21st sanctions package against Russia, but only after Greece forced through an exemption letting its ships keep carrying Russian gas outside the bloc, mostly to protect one billionaire's tanker firm. Brussels also froze the Russian oil price cap at $44 a barrel

• The World Bank Is Cutting Off Lending To China By 2031

  The World Bank has confirmed it'll phase out loans to China by 2031, winding down a 45-year relationship as the world's second-largest economy shifts from borrower to advice-taker. Lending has already collapsed from a $2.42 billion peak in 2017 to just $750 million in 2025. Trump demanded a full stop back in his first term. Now China's the fifth-largest donor to the Bank's fund for poor countries, and says it'll keep engaging regardless

• India Cut The Mobile Internet In Central Delhi To Contain A Youth Uprising

  India ordered phone companies to kill mobile data across central Delhi to smother the "Cockroach" youth movement, which wants the education minister gone over exam leaks that hit two million students. Shops couldn't take payments and metro stations shut as protesters called for nationwide demos. India already leads the world in internet shutdowns, so pulling the plug on an entire capital tells you just how rattled the government really is

• Britain's New PM Will Run The Country From Manchester One Day A Week

  Andy Burnham has opened "No 10 North", a Manchester branch of Downing Street, and will work from it at least one day a week to drive devolution out of Westminster. He insists it's "not a gimmick" and costs taxpayers nothing extra (we'll see), with civil servants already in place

3. Chart Of The Week

NATO's Just Ramped Up Defence Spending By 20%, Its Biggest Buildup In A Decade

NATO's European members and Canada lifted defence spending by 20% in 2025, the alliance's largest military buildup in ten years. Every ally now meets or beats the old 2% of GDP target, with most pledging a hefty 5% by 2035.

Belgium led the big spenders with a staggering 58% jump, finally dragging itself off the bottom of the table, while Denmark's 49% went straight into Arctic defence, no doubt spurred partly by Washington's bid to buy Greenland.

The UK managed just 3%, France a limp 1%, and the US actually cut spending by 1%. Poland stands out on commitment, spending 4.3% of GDP, more than anyone relative to its economy, which is what living next to a live war does to your priorities.

4. Market Overview

S&P 500 (U.S.) 
Fell over the week. Tech did the damage, chip stocks kept sliding, and then Alphabet and Tesla earnings landed badly, with Alphabet spooking people over ballooning AI spending and Tesla getting hammered on weak cash flow. Surging oil on renewed US-Iran tensions didn't help the mood.

FTSE 100 (UK)
Crept higher and closed the week up. Financials and some big names carried the load, and strong UK retail sales plus better business activity numbers gave things a lift. BP and Shell swung around with the wild moves in oil.

S&P/TSX Composite (Canada)
Basically flat. Energy and gold miners had a good mid-week run, and the index even hit a record on firmer oil and gold. But weaker financials and industrials dragged it back, so it finished the week flat.

ASX 200 (Australia)
Fell. Miners had a strong week overall on firmer commodity prices, but a late slide as copper and gold pulled back, plus the AI-spending jitters spilling over from Wall Street, dragged the index lower. Hot June jobs data also kept rate-hike worries simmering.

🇺🇸 United States – S&P 500

• High: 7,524

• Low: 7,383

🇬🇧 UK - FTSE 100

• High: 10,755

• Low: 10,490

🇨🇦 Canada – TSX Composite

• High: 35,724

• Low: 34,962

🇦🇺 Australia – ASX 200

• High: 8,918

• Low: 8,741

Cryptocurrency:

• Bitcoin (BTC): 0.9%

• Ethereum (ETH): 1.5%

• Tether (USDT): 0.0%

• BNB (BNB): -0.4%

• USDC (USDC): 0.0%

• XRP (XRP): 0.4%

  Solana (SOL): -1.1%

• TRON (TRX): 2.4%

• Figure Heloc (FIGR_HELOC): 2.1%

• WhiteBIT Coin(WBT): 1.0%

Metals Market:

Gold–Silver Ratio: ~69:1,The ratio fell over the week as silver held up better than gold. Both got knocked mid-week when surging oil revived Fed rate-hike worries, but gold took the harder hit sliding off a two-week peak, while silver clawed back losses late on physical buying and its industrial support.

Gold & Silver:

• Gold:  1.35% with a Week High: $4,166 & Week Low: $3,984

• Silver: 4.73% with a Week High: $60.91 & Week Low: $55.58

5. Faith & Success

Today’s verse is more for me than for you if I’m honest!

I’ve had an incredibly difficult week (hence only doing 1 livestream this week).

We suffered some very serious setbacks/issues at the castle…

From a brand new bathroom being completely ruined (and had to be stripped out and started over), to a problem with the main water pipe AND the Oil tank! And then to add insult to injury - the digger snapped it’s track digging the water pipe out (at the time that we desperately needed it)

That’s 4 Major problems, in 1 week.

Plus more delays with contractors, that has led to everything else being delayed; it really was a nightmare week.

But rather than end on a sour note… I want to flip this for a moment to not dwell on the setbacks, but to look forward and be positive.

Because I got an email this week from a young lady who has been feeling ‘down in the dumps’ (as she described it)

Her goal that she set in January is now starting to look unrealistic, and she was putting all her hopes in this working out.

Because if it doesn’t work out, she won’t be able to stay in the UK and will have to go back to Poland.

Putting aside the fact for a moment that I think I’d choose Poland over the UK right now anyway if I were Polish (ha!), I do understand what it feels like to go through times like this…

In fact, I've been there more times than I can count.

But if I can share one thing with you that has proven true for me over the years…

Is that, sometimes I really do believe that things aren't supposed to work out.

Specifically, I mean that what we desperately wanted, wasn't what we were supposed to have.

Before I bought the Castle, I desperately wanted this 100 acre property that I felt was perfect for us!

And it was going for really cheap, overlooking the ocean on the Isle Of Man. It truly was stunning, there’s no other way to describe it.

And when I say cheap, for the Isle Of man, I would say it was about 30% of the price you would expect to pay for a property like that!

I was pushing and pushing every day to get the purchase over the finish line, yet after a year, I finally realised that it just wasn't going to happen and there was no way to make it happen.

As a result, I ended up buying the Castle instead, which although has been the most challenging thing I've ever had to do - it's also been one of the most interesting.

Every day brings a new challenge and I've learned so many new things.

So I really do believe that sometimes we should let things happen naturally, especially if we've given it 100% and it still didn't work out.

I've launched things that failed publicly numerous times.

But here's another thing I've come to understand: failing isn't the problem.

Letting the circumstances get you down is the problem; and those are two completely different things.

This verse doesn't say the righteous never fall - it says they fall SEVEN TIMES. Seven!

That's not a promise of a smooth ride, it's almost the opposite. It's an acknowledgement that setbacks, failures, and hard seasons are simply part of the journey.

So if you're not quite where you want things to be right now - that's ok.

It’s Summer for most of us right now, so at least we can enjoy the sunshine, and it’s FREE!

But on a serious note, sometimes - things just aren’t meant to be.

Have a wonderful weekend my friend,

Take care, and God Bless,

Neil,

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DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is 100% FREE & is designed to help your thinking, not direct it. These newsletters shall NOT be construed as tax, legal, or financial advice and may be outdated or inaccurate; all decisions made as a result of this information are yours alone.

Trading/Liability: Neil McCoy-Ward operates/trades under a private Ltd company within the Isle of Man.

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