Your IMPORTANT Weekly Briefing: (24th April 2026)

The Neil McCoy-Ward Newsletter

April 24, 2026

Opening Note…

I’m writing todays newsletter from Nevada USA where I’m finally doing the West coast USA trip that I've been putting off for several years. Mainly because I need to finally wrap up some old business here… but also, I'm using it as an opportunity to attend three conferences that I've always wanted to attend. Combined with a number of business meetings and seeing clients.

Here’s the view from where I’m writing this newsletter right now…

It’s been a great trip so far, and next week I’ll be in Southern California for another important conference.

I wanted to share with you something I found interesting… someone said to me this week, “See! Don't you wish you attended these meetings and conferences two or three years ago? Don't you regret not doing it sooner?”

And my response was: “no, I don’t regret it at all because this is now the perfect time for me to do these meetings.”

Because there's always a perfect time for everything which I'll talk about in the faith and finances section at the end…

Ok, let's break down the latest...

Table of Contents

1. Weekly Spotlight

No Ceasefire Deal (Again)

The deadline was hours away, Vance had a plane on the tarmac ready to fly to Pakistan for another round of talks, and Iran simply didn't show up (they stated so in advance). No delegation, no response to the US proposal, just silence from Tehran.

And here's the thing about Trump's playbook (you've heard me talk about the ‘Art of the Deal’ tactics before). These tactics work brilliantly when the other side has something to lose. But what exactly does Iran have left to lose at this point? Their supreme leader is dead, their nuclear programme has been set back years, and their military infrastructure was hammered.

The pressure isn't working as well because there isn’t much left to press upon… BUT Iran is losing $500M a DAY in lost oil revenue. If I had to say they had anything left to lose, it would be this.

While the on and off ceasefire plays out, Iran has been turning the Strait of Hormuz into a revenue stream. They've passed an actual law formalising their toll system, where ships pay roughly $1 per barrel of oil on board to pass through, and they collect it in crypto or Chinese yuan routed through banking systems that Western sanctions simply cannot touch.

A fully loaded supertanker carries around 2 million barrels. Even at modest traffic levels, analysts estimate this is generating somewhere between $600 and $800 million per month for Iran. But the US knew this, and cut that revenue stream off. Right now, this is like a giant game of chess… with the rest of the World losing out.

Asia is suffering the worst right now, Europe is very close behind. I expect energy problems to surface in Europe towards the end of May.

Oh, and that forecast is based upon whether the strait opens or not. The damage is already done. And I think once the strait opens, it could be roughly 3 months for things to get better.

So it’s not the end of the world, but it is a major crisis in the making that could be prolonged, or it could be ‘shorter’ lived - but it won’t be short. From the day they opened the strait, expect roughly one year or more for things to normalise.

2. Quick Takes

Here are the other top stories shaping the week:

  • Sweden Is Preparing For Energy Rationing As Europe's Fuel Crisis Deepens

    Sweden's prime minister and finance minister have both warned the country may need to ration energy if fuel supply problems continue, with the finance minister calling it "the worst energy crisis in a very long time." Germany has cut its 2026 growth forecast in half to 0.5%, directly blaming the Hormuz closure, and airlines are feeling it too, with Lufthansa cancelling 20,000 short-haul flights this summer and United warning ticket prices could rise 15-20%.

  • The US Burned Through Nearly Half Its Patriot Missiles In Seven Weeks

    A new CSIS study claims the Iran war consumed close to 50% of America's Patriot interceptors, more than half its THAAD systems, and over 45% of its Precision Strike Missiles in just seven weeks. They are saying that it could take one to four years to replenish the stock piles.

  • Israel And Lebanon Have Agreed A Three-Week Ceasefire Extension

    The US has brokered a three-week extension to the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire after hosting both countries' ambassadors at the White House, the first direct diplomatic engagement between the two nations in decades, with Netanyahu and Lebanon's President Aoun both expected at the White House in the coming weeks. The catch is that Hezbollah wasn't part of the talks and has already fired rockets into northern Israel since the announcement, while Lebanese law technically bars any contact with Israel at all. The two countries that have never formally sat down together like they just did; that's significant, even if Hezbollah has other ideas…

  • Mercuria, Goldman & JPMorgan Call The Aluminum Market A "Black Swan"

    The Gulf conflict has triggered what Mercuria calls the largest base metals supply shock since the year 2000, with aluminum at a four-year high, a projected 2 million-ton deficit by year-end. The Gulf region supplies 9% of global aluminum, major smelters have declared force majeure, and with Hormuz blocked, there's barely enough inventory left globally to cover the gap. - I expect some of you may have done well from this trade after I said in my Patreon video several months ago that Copper, followed by Aluminum would be the next commodity to watch…

  • America's Breadbasket Is In Its Worst Drought In Over 130 Years

    UBS is warning that US drought conditions are the most severe since records began in 1895, with March ranking as the third driest month ever recorded, behind only the 1934 Dust Bowl. The Mississippi River in Memphis sits 24 feet below where it was this time last year, half of the winter wheat crop in Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Colorado is already rated in poor or very poor condition, and farmers are planting into bone-dry soil. Food prices were already under pressure before this.

  • Trump Threatens UK With Tariffs If Britain Doesn't Drop Its Tech Tax

    Trump has warned he'll hit the UK with tariffs if Keir Starmer doesn't scrap Britain's Digital Services Tax, a 2% charge on revenues from US tech giants like Apple, Google, and Meta that raised £944 million last year and is forecast to hit £1.4 billion annually by 2030. The Treasury has so far refused to drop it, calling it a temporary measure until a global tax deal is reached, but that global deal is going nowhere with Trump in the White House.

  • UK Gives The Green Light To Live Facial Recognition Across London

    A legal challenge brought by civil liberties group Big Brother Watch, including a youth worker previously misidentified by the technology, has been thrown out by the UK High Court, clearing the way for live facial recognition cameras to roll out across London's transport network and potentially high streets nationwide. This sort of the tech was always going to expand once it got a foot in the door.

  • The EU Just Released A €90 Billion War Loan For Ukraine

    The EU has finally unblocked a €90 billion two-year loan for Ukraine after Hungary and Slovakia dropped their vetoes, with the timing tied directly to Viktor Orban's shock election defeat and the resumption of oil flows through the Druzhba pipeline. The money is heavily weighted toward military spending, covering air defence systems and energy infrastructure ahead of winter. The EU also rolled out its 20th round of sanctions against Russia at the same time.

  • Health Data From 500,000 Brits Was Listed For Sale On Alibaba 

    Data from all 500,000 volunteers in the UK Biobank, the world's largest health and biological dataset, was listed for sale on Alibaba's platform in China, with the government only finding out on Monday. The data doesn't include names or addresses but does cover gender, age, socioeconomic status, lifestyle habits, and biological samples, and the government says it can't fully guarantee nobody could be identified from it. Access has been paused and three research institutions identified as the source have had their access revoked. Half a million people volunteered their most personal health information to advance medical science, and it ended up on a Chinese shopping website.

NEIL’S TAKEAWAYS:

In the United States
Trump's pick to replace Powell as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, sat before the Senate Banking Committee for his confirmation hearing and the whole thing is a mess.

Warsh said he never cut a deal with Trump on interest rates and that Fed independence matters. But he also said he doesn't think it's a problem when presidents publicly push for lower rates. That is a significant shift from where the Fed has always stood.

Because Trump hasn't just expressed an opinion. He has threatened to fire Powell repeatedly, mocked him publicly, and posted what he literally called "THE TRUMP RULE" on Truth Social, that his new Fed Chair should cut rates when markets are doing well, and anyone who disagrees will never get the job.

This could drag on for weeks. One Republican senator, Thom Tillis, is blocking the confirmation. Not because he has a problem with Warsh, but because he wants the DOJ to drop its criminal investigation into Powell first. A federal judge has already said that investigation has no real basis and exists purely to pressure Powell into resigning. Without Tillis, the votes are not there. Powell's chair term expires May 15. Trump has threatened to fire him if he stays. Legally, he almost certainly cannot do that without a court fight he probably wouldn’t win.

And whoever ends up in that chair inherits a situation nobody wants. The national debt has past $39 trillion. Interest payments alone top $1 trillion a year. Inflation is still running above 3% and the economy isn’t looking so good... consumer sentiment is in the floor right now - which is an important metric I trust and follow.

Prepare: Watch this carefully over the next few weeks. If Trump forces a legal confrontation with Powell, markets will react badly and quickly. For now, rates are staying higher for longer, which keeps pressure on mortgages, loans, and any business that borrowed heavily expecting cheap credit to last. Businesses with little debt and steady income are the ones best placed to ride this out.

Across Europe:
Since the Iran war began in late February, Europe has spent an extra €24 billion on energy imports. That works out to over €500 million a day. And the worst part is they have not received a single extra unit of energy for it. Just higher prices for the same amount.

This is the second energy crisis Europe has faced in less than five years. The European Commission rushed out an emergency plan this week called AccelerateEU, offering energy vouchers for struggling households, electricity tax cuts, and more room for governments to support industries that are on their knees.

Germany's chemical industry warned this week that more plant shutdowns and job cuts are coming. Lufthansa cut 20,000 flights through October because jet fuel has doubled since the war began. European fishermen have stopped fishing because fuel costs have wiped out their margins.

Prepare: Be very selective with anything consumer-facing in Europe right now, especially in energy-heavy sectors. Hold more cash to prepare, and watch anything that depends on cheap borrowing very carefully.

On the Global Stage:
Something happened this week that I think is being massively underreported. Iran has been letting ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz, but only if the cargo is paid for in Chinese yuan.

At least two vessels have already settled their transit fees that way. I’ve heard many people say “the dollar is finished” - No, it’s not.

The yuan makes up less than 2% of global reserves. But, yes - every week this continues to grow. That shift, even if slow, matters enormously… but the dollar is far from finished.

Prepare: Do not let the ceasefire headlines convince you this conflict is over. Watch the yuan oil trade closely. Energy producers remain well placed. If you have exposure to import-dependent Asian economies like the Philippines, Vietnam, or Bangladesh, take a hard look at that this week.

3. Chart Of The Week

Chile Has Almost Twice As Much Copper As Any Other Country On Earth

Chile sits on 180 million tonnes of copper reserves, nearly double Australia in second place, giving it extraordinary control over a metal that powers everything from electric vehicles to AI data centres and power grids.

Just five countries, Chile, Australia, Peru, the DRC, and Russia, hold more than half of all known global supply, and with demand expected to surge from electrification and AI infrastructure, that concentration is becoming a serious strategic issue.

Humanity has mined 700 million tonnes of copper throughout all of history, yet close to a billion tonnes remain in the ground (that we know of).

4. Market Overview

S&P 500 (U.S.)
Finished the week flat, pulled in two directions. Strong earnings from tech and financial companies pushed the index higher mid-week, but ongoing uncertainty around the U.S.-Iran war and the closed Strait of Hormuz kept a lid on any real gains.

FTSE 100 (UK)
Fell for most of the week as Middle East tensions weighed on sentiment. Banks, miners, and defence stocks led the losses, with energy and consumer names the only sectors that held up, supported by higher oil prices.

S&P/TSX Composite (Canada)
Ended lower, with financials and materials doing most of the damage. Rising oil prices pushed up inflation expectations and bond yields, which hurt the banks, while falling gold prices knocked mining stocks. Energy producers were the one area of strength.

ASX 200 (Australia)
Finished down, with the mood shaped by ongoing uncertainty from the Iran conflict. The energy sector pulled back despite higher oil prices, as investors rotated out of a sector that had already run hard earlier in the year. Weak consumer confidence data added to the cautious tone.

🇺🇸 United States – S&P 500

  • High: 7,163.19

  • Low: 7,054.11

🇬🇧 UK - FTSE 100

  • High: 10,633.79

  • Low: 10,366.12

🇨🇦 Canada – TSX Composite

  • High: 34,377.16

  • Low: 33,650.15

🇦🇺 Australia – ASX 200

  • High: 8,969.50

  • Low: 8,747.60

Cryptocurrency:

  • Bitcoin (BTC): 2.3%

  • Ethereum (ETH): -2.2%

  • Tether (USDT): 0.0%

  • XRP (XRP): -1.9%

  • BNB (BNB): 0.3%

  • USDC (USDC): 0.0%

  • Solana (SOL): -3.8%

  • TRON (TRX): 1.0%

  • Figure Heloc (FIGR_HELOC): -0.3%

  • Dogecoin (DOGE): -1.3%

Metals Market:

Gold–Silver Ratio: ~63:1, The ratio has risen this week due as both assets fell with Silver falling further while gold was less volatile.

Gold & Silver:

  • Gold: Fell -3.26% with a Week High: $4,885 & Week Low: $4,659

  • Silver: Fell -7.68% with a Week High: $83.07 & Week Low: $74.00

5. Faith & Success

❝

“Let us not grow weary in doing good, for at the proper time we will reap a harvest if we do not give up.”

— Galatians 6:9

For most people, I think it’s easy to become discouraged when progress feels slow or when we just get going and then out of nowhere, BANG! War and conflict surrounds us, taking us a step back in our progress or gains.

Finally got that business meeting you’ve been waiting for?! “Dear Sir… Fuel shortages mean your flight has been cancelled.“

You finally got ahead and paid off the credit card debt?! “Dear Madam, due to the Iran war, your home heating bill will double this Winter”

I know that sometimes it feels like you just can't win… I've been through that season myself many times. 2008 was a particularly tough period for me with my real estate portfolio. So I've been there and I get it.

It’s even tougher now because we live in a world that celebrates quick results, instant success, and overnight breakthroughs. But real growth rarely works that way.

More often, it comes through consistency. Through showing up, doing the right thing, and trusting that your efforts are building something worthwhile, despite what’s going on in the World.

Too many people have a defeatist nature and mindset. I see it all the time in the YouTube comments on my videos where they say, “what's the point in taking a course or planting a garden if we could all be dead tomorrow?”

WOW! Talk about a negative mindset!

And this is why I don't associate with anyone who speaks in this way, because it's contagious. In the same way that if someone has the flu, and they invite me over to their house for lunch, I'm going to politely decline.

This verse is a reminder that not every reward is immediate. Some of the best outcomes in life take time to develop. Character, success, wisdom, strong relationships, these are all cultivated over time, often behind the scenes.

The challenge is to remain faithful in the process - to stay positive, despite the World around you. To keep going when the results aren’t yet visible. To stay committed when the excitement fades and discipline has to take over.

Because eventually, the seeds you’ve planted will grow. The effort you’ve invested will bear fruit. And the persistence you’ve shown will be rewarded (trust me on this one!)

This week, keep going. Even if progress feels slow, it’s still progress. Stay patient, stay consistent, and trust that in time, YOUR harvest will come.

Take care, and God Bless.

Neil,

Digital Income Mastery: LINK

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This newsletter is 100% FREE & is designed to help your thinking, not direct it. These newsletters shall NOT be construed as tax, legal, or financial advice and may be outdated or inaccurate; all decisions made as a result of this information are yours alone.

Trading/Liability: Neil McCoy-Ward operates/trades under a private Ltd company within the Isle of Man.