Opening Note…

After my walk & talk today, I went to the Castle to check on progress (I am not living here at present). Here’s a picture from this afternoon.

Outside, the guys were adding yet another drainage pipe to handle excess (rain) water off the new extension, this is on top of the 3 water drainage pipes we added last year and the 2 the year before! That’s what happens when you have 2 streams, a waterfall and a mountain behind the house…

Unfortunately, the workers also cut through our main water line with the digger (the line was just 2.5 inches below the surface and wasn’t labelled or in a protective pipe). It wasn’t really anyone’s fault, the line was probably installed decades ago, and no one expected it to get dug up…

But the great news is that this Winter just gone, was the first Winter that we didn’t suffer flooding.

And the inside of the Castle is very close to now being sealed, with the dirty/dusty difficult work now complete.

You can follow along on Patreon with 53 video episodes since we started the renovation back in 2022 (LINK)

Ok, now for what you really came for…

Table of Contents

• 1. Weekly Spotlight

• 2. Quick Takes

• 3. Chart Of The Week

• 4. Market Overview

• 5. Faith & Success

1. Weekly Spotlight

The Bond Market Crisis

You'll have seen a lot of headlines this week about the bond market. Yields are up, the 30-year crossed 5%, the 10-year is at 4.6%, and analysts everywhere have been talking about inflation, deficits, and Fed policy.

But almost every piece of coverage I've read this week has missed the one detail that actually matters…

For the first time in modern history, foreign governments are selling US Treasuries during a war - rather than buying. That has not happened in any of the major conflicts of the past 80 years.

Every time there has been a major conflict since World War II (Korea, Vietnam, the Gulf War, Iraq, Afghanistan, even the Covid lockdowns - which was a kind of economic war) the same thing has happened. Money runs into US Treasuries. It's the "flight to safety" reflex. 

The dollar is the world's reserve currency, US debt is considered the safest asset on the planet, so when things get scary globally, capital piles in. Yields fall, the dollar strengthens, and Washington gets to fund the chaos cheaply.

However the March TIC data, released on Sunday by the US Treasury (this is the official report on who holds American debt), confirmed what's been suspected for a long time now. 

China's holdings of US Treasuries fell to roughly $652 billion. The lowest since 2008. Japan, the largest foreign holder, also cut exposure aggressively. These are central banks and sovereign wealth funds, the people who normally absorb US debt no matter what.

So why now? Why sell during a war, of all times?

A few reasons stack on top of each other… (here’s my thoughts)

Central banks across the developing world are burning through reserves to defend their own currencies against a rising dollar and rising energy import costs.

When your population is being crushed by $100+ oil and your currency is sliding, you sell your safest reserve asset first to plug the gap. And that asset is US Treasuries.

Then there's the larger one. The US fiscal position is genuinely broken; a $2 trillion annual deficit, interest payments on the national debt now overtaking the entire defence budget. Plus, Washington is simultaneously fighting a war, handing out tariff exemptions, and promising tax cuts. 

Third, and this has been in the works for years now, foreign holders are watching how the US uses the dollar (sanctions, asset freezes, the Russian reserves seizure, new creation, etc) and concluded that holding a trillion dollars of someone else's debt is a vulnerability rather than a safe parking spot.

The "official story" all week has been that yields are rising because of inflation from the oil shock. True, but that's a shallow view. The reality is the world is starting to price in the possibility that US Treasuries are not the unconditional safe haven they used to be.

Why does it matter for you? Mortgage rates, business loan rates, car loans, and the value of pretty much every financial asset on the planet are priced on US Treasury yields. When the 10-year goes from 4% to 4.6% it flows into the cost of borrowing for every single person who needs credit.

2. Quick Takes

Here are the other top stories shaping the week:

• Kevin Warsh Inherits The Worst Fed Job In 40 Years

  Kevin Warsh has been confirmed as the new Fed Chair after the closest Senate vote in history (54-45), and he walks straight into a nightmare. Inflation is pushing prices up, the bond market has lost faith in Washington, and the Treasury needs to roll over $9 trillion of debt by the end of 2027 at much higher interest rates. Trump picked him to cut rates, but doing that could blow up the bond market, and not doing it could bankrupt the Treasury.

• UK Borrowing Costs Just Hit Their Highest Level Since 1998

  The yield on UK 10-year gilts has rocketed past 5.1%, while 30-year gilts briefly touched 5.8%, the highest since 1998, as the bond market loses patience with Keir Starmer and energy prices. Traders are pricing in four Bank of England rate hikes this year, having expected two cuts before the Iran war

• UK Inflation Drops To 2.8%, But Don't Get Comfortable

  UK inflation fell to 2.8% in April, below the 3% economists expected, helped by lower electricity and gas prices after Ofgem's April price cap kicked in. Unemployment has kicked up to 5%, and the Bank of England is watching for "second round" effects like workers demanding bigger pay rises. I’ll say enjoy the cheaper bills while they last, as higher prices are coming

• The Iran Deal Was Announced, Retracted, And Denied All In One Day

  Markets were volatile yesterday after Saudi outlet Al Arabiya published what it claimed was the final draft of a US-Iran peace deal, sending oil plunging, before retracting it hours later as "fabricated". The leaked text included a ceasefire and freedom of navigation through Hormuz, but said nothing about Iran's nuclear stockpile. Iran's Supreme Leader has now reportedly ordered the 60% enriched uranium stays on Iranian soil. US intelligence says Iran has rebuilt its drone production far faster than expected, suggesting the talks may have been a stalling tactic all along

• Cuba Could Be Trump's Next Target After Venezuela

  Marco Rubio has labelled Cuba a "national security threat" and says the chances of a peaceful deal are "not high". The US has charged former Cuban president Raúl Castro with the murder of Americans shot down in 1996, and the acting attorney general says Castro will arrive in the US "by his own will or by another way". The USS Nimitz has been deployed to the Caribbean. That's almost word for word what happened to Maduro, who's now sitting in a New York jail

• UK Net Migration Has Almost Halved In A Year

  UK net migration fell 48% to 171,000 in the year to December 2025, the lowest level since early 2021, with fewer non-EU workers and asylum claims dropping 12%. Compared to the 944,000 peak under the Conservatives in 2023, net migration is now down 82%. One detail that’s missed here is 246,000 British citizens left the country last year (I talked about this in my Walk & Talk today)

• SpaceX Just Filed For The Biggest IPO In History At $1.75 Trillion

  SpaceX has filed its IPO paperwork, targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation that would smash Saudi Aramco's $1.7 trillion record, with shares set to list on Nasdaq under "SPCX" in June. Revenue hit $18.7 billion in 2025, mostly from Starlink, but the company also posted a $4.9 billion loss thanks to AI spending after absorbing Musk's xAI business. The plan is to build data centres in space to train AI models. If this lands well, expect OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs to follow.

3. Chart Of The Week

Saudi Aramco Is Worth More Than The Next Five Oil Giants Combined

Saudi Aramco's market cap has hit $1.8 trillion, making it worth more than Exxon, Chevron, PetroChina, Shell, and TotalEnergies put together.

The top 20 oil and gas companies are now collectively worth more than Japan's entire GDP, with the US dominating by sheer numbers (10 of the top 20) and Western Europe trailing badly with a combined value less than half of Aramco alone.

The Iran war has supercharged valuations, with Hormuz handling 20% of the world's oil flow, and AI data centre demand piling on top.

One Saudi state company is now worth more than every listed UK and French oil major combined.

4. Market Overview

S&P 500 (U.S.) Up on the week. Got a mid-week lift from US-Iran peace progress, with the Dow hitting a record close Thursday. Nvidia beat earnings but the stock barely budged, and Walmarts weaker guidance took some of the shine off.

FTSE 100 (UK) Strong week, pushing back near its April highs. Weak UK data, soft inflation, a wobbly jobs market, and a contracting PMI, killed off BoE rate hike bets and got people comfortable taking risk again. BT, 3i, and Compass led the gainers, while BP lagged on cheaper oil.

S&P/TSX Composite (Canada) Crept higher, edging back toward its March record. Financials did most of the work late in the week, with miners pitching in mid-week. A brief wobble on renewed US-Iran tensions didnt stick.

ASX 200 (Australia) Rose overall. Miners carried it, copper, lithium, iron ore, and gold all rallied as commodity prices firmed up and oil eased. Thursday saw a sharp jump that the index built on into Friday.

🇺🇸 United States – S&P 500

• High: 7,496

• Low: 7,337

🇬🇧 UK - FTSE 100

• High: 10,497

• Low: 10,435

🇨🇦 Canada – TSX Composite

• High: 34,544

• Low: 33,727

🇦🇺 Australia – ASX 200

• High: 8,674

• Low: 8,486

Cryptocurrency:

• Bitcoin (BTC): -3.1%

• Ethereum (ETH): -4.4%

• Tether (USDT): -0.1%

• BNB (BNB): -2.7%

• XRP (XRP): -5.6%

• USDC (USDC): 0.0%

• Solana (SOL): -2.5%

• TRON (TRX): 3.3%

• Figure Heloc (FIGR_HELOC): 0.0%

• Dogecoin (DOGE): -5.3%

Metals Market:

Gold–Silver Ratio: ~59:1, Was flat this week. Silver had a choppy week, dipping mid-week before rallying Thursday, while gold held steady above $4,500. The ratio is still near multi-year lows.

Gold & Silver:

• Gold: Fell -0.49% with a Week High: $4,589 & Week Low: $4,455

• Silver: Fell -0.74 with a Week High: $78.92 & Week Low: $73.19

5. Faith & Success

This verse always makes me laugh. You can probably guess why… we all know someone like this.

When I was younger we would say of these sorts of people: “He talks a good game! But it’s all hot air and no action!”

And now, I’m starting to see that patterns all over again…

Because late May is a funny season. The sun starts showing up, people feel energised again, the long dark months are behind us - and suddenly EVERYONE has a plan to conquer the World…

"This summer I'm going to launch the business."

"This is the year I finally sort out my finances."

"I've been thinking about investing in property… I just need to find the right moment."

Sound familiar? Maybe you've said some of these yourself. (I know I've said versions of them over the years!)

And here's the thing - I'm not knocking the ambition. Ambition is brilliant. You need it. But there's a dangerous trap that exists between talking about doing something and actually doing it… and most people live their entire lives inside that trap without ever realising it.

People have now become incredibly articulate about their goals. They could talk for hours about what they're going to do, why it's a great idea, what their strategy is… yet when you check back in six months later, nothing has moved. Not an inch. or even worse, they got started, and then they quit…

Taking no responsibility for the failures and blaming others or circumstances.

And the honest truth is - I've been that person too. That was me in my late 20’s & early 30’s. I blamed others for me not succeeding, but the truth is that it was all on me.

If there’s one thing I’ve learned, it’s that hard work brings profit. Not clever talk. Not detailed plans that never leave my notebook. Not "I'm going to…" Not "I've been thinking about…"

WORK. Actual, unglamorous, sometimes uncomfortable, roll-up-your-sleeves work.

Now I'm not saying don't plan. Planning is essential (as I mentioned last week!) But there's a world of difference between preparation and endless conversation that makes you feel productive without actually being productive…

The technical term for it is "productive procrastination" - and it's one of the sneakiest traps out there, because it feels like progress. But it really isn't.

So this weekend, ask yourself honestly: is there something you've been talking about for weeks, months, maybe even years… that you haven't actually started?

Because the right time is rarely going to arrive on its own.

The best time to start was yesterday; the second best time is today.

I was watching my chickens today. Chickens are funny creatures, they don’t tend to be overly courageous (unless food is involved).

But if you put a rooster in the flock, all of a sudden - they are willing to travel in search of better foraging grounds…

And for reference, this is NOT my property.

No. My chickens decided to fly over the (HUGE) wall to get to next door, where multiple cats live and hunt. But the chickens weren’t worried, they were on a mission.

Since introducing a rooster, they are suddenly all action and very little talk. They are the exact same chickens, but they have now become action takers…

Have a brilliant weekend my friend!

Take care, and God Bless.

Neil,

Digital Income Mastery (Discounted for a limited time): LINK

P.P.S. Why not share this newsletter with a friend?

Enjoying this Newsletter? Share with a Friend…

DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is 100% FREE & is designed to help your thinking, not direct it. These newsletters shall NOT be construed as tax, legal, or financial advice and may be outdated or inaccurate; all decisions made as a result of this information are yours alone.

Trading/Liability: Neil McCoy-Ward operates/trades under a private Ltd company within the Isle of Man.

1