Opening Note…

As much as I’d love to start this weeks newsletter on a positive note… 

I want to start today sharing how concerned I am about what’s transpired in the last 48 hours around energy infrastructure destruction.

Last week, I shared my apprehension over how the media were reporting their ‘relief’ at the drop of Crude down to $85 a barrel - (they just don’t get it…) 

It’s a bizarre thing to live in such times as these, where my brain is able to see what’s happening on the ground in real time and then have a good idea (prediction/forecast) of what this means for the future...

It’s simple mathematics / economic modelling - if you reduce the supply, prices will have to rise OR even worse, consumers cut back on their usage. Either way - this is bad. Cutting back means that GDP drops, meaning more job losses at a time of AI & Robotics. 

Also, during hard times, efficiency improves dramatically. Now multiply this by the new AI race, and those wanting to capitalise on it, and eventually this ‘wage replacement’ filters its way down to the small Mom & Pop businesses too… (FACT: 65% (averaged) of all employees in the Western World work in SMEs).

So no, this is not looking good and I suggest you avoid and ignore anyone that says otherwise or tells you not to be so negative and to think more positive about the situation - this kind of thinking will get you into big trouble…

Instead, you actually need to think negatively! Yes, negatively, not positively. Think about your current situation:

• Are you in a good position right now against energy shocks?

• What about your food and water supply, is that secure?

• Have you stocked up on enough long life food if the fresh supply gets disrupted?

• Do you have enough emergency savings to weather the storm?

• How secure is your job or income?

And just a reminder: Your new income producing training program is designed to increase your monthly income dramatically AND give you freedom to live and earn from anywhere in the world. What’s better than the flexibility of income you control and movement in a period so volatile as this? 

Even though the insider pre launch has closed, you can still get the social media offer here…

I mean… at least watch the video and make a firm decision, because for someone reading this right now - it could be the solution to many of these worries…

And I know you're probably quite busy right now, we all are. In fact, I've noticed how everyone seems to have less time than we used to. We've all become very busy, and that's actually the most dangerous time when we come into periods like this, because we become complacent of making sure we have the basics right.

And yes, that includes me too. Yet, I'm making sure this week that I take care of all the import things that I need to. I’m checking the rotation dates on my long-term food, I'm having the water tested on site, I'm buying new back up filters for my water filtration system, I’m having my car, van and bike serviced and I'm stocking up on all the things that I use on a regular basis before prices rise.

Remember in 2020 when I gave you the example of the pack of paper? If you don't, I can share the story quickly with you now… 

I was in the store and I saw a ream of paper for £2.50, and I explained that I was going to be buying at least 20 if not 30 packs because the price will double in the next few years… well crazy enough, I actually saw that exact pack of paper again yesterday. The price? £6.50 - that’s a 160% INCREASE! And I still have 10 packs left that I'm using, yet each pack is only costing me £2.50… 

This is how I want you to be thinking during this time. Think long-term, higher prices. Because everybody else will be thinking, buy as little as possible each week… this works out far more expensive and is a lot more volatile in the face of supply shocks.

Ok, I've already written a lot here and I still have a lot more to say, so let me get the newsletter started or I’ll be doing this brain dump all day! 

Ok, let's break down the latest...

Table of Contents

• 1. Weekly Spotlight

• 2. Quick Takes

• 3. Chart Of The Week

• 4. Market Overview

• 5. Faith & Success

1. Weekly Spotlight

The Fed Just Admitted It's Trapped

The Federal Reserve held rates steady on Wednesday (No surprise there). But what came out of the meeting was far more revealing than the decision itself. And I don't think enough people are paying attention to what was actually said…

Powell told reporters that inflation isn't coming down "as much as we hoped." Seven officials now expect zero rate cuts this year, and the growth forecast was slashed to 0.9% for 2026.

When asked about the impact of the Iran war on the economy, Powell said, "Nobody knows, the economic effects could be bigger, they could be smaller, we just don't know."

I think when the most powerful central banker in the world says that publicly, we should all take it seriously.

You can already feel what he's talking about in the real world. Gas prices in the US have jumped 92 cents in under three weeks, from $2.92 to $3.84 a gallon.

And diesel is the one that really matters because almost everything you buy, gets moved by truck or train at some point. When diesel goes up, the cost of moving everything goes up.

And this is exactly why the Fed (& other Central banks) are stuck. On one side, you've got an economy that needs lower rates and jobs creation (yet hiring has essentially flatlined); and on the other side, you've got oil and energy costs pushing inflation higher at exactly the wrong moment.

If they cut rates, they risk making inflation worse, and if they hold, the labour market keeps deteriorating. Some economists are now talking about the possibility of rate hikes. If that happens, we’re going to see a stagflationary scenario (rising prices and falling employment at the same time), and it's the one thing central banks have no answer to.

If we think back to everything we've covered this year… The debt spiral, the tariff war, the military war and oil shock, and the Russian sanctions being loosened mid-conflict. It all feeds into this one moment: The Fed is the institution that's supposed to be the steady hand through all of it. And right now they're telling you they don't know what's coming and they can't do much about it, even if they did.

That’s truly alarming.

2. Quick Takes

Here are the other top stories shaping the week:

• Oil Breached $115 After Both Sides Started Bombing Energy Infrastructure

  Brent crude surged past $115 a barrel on Wednesday, its highest since the war began (before dropping back down to around $110). this was after Iran struck Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility and other Gulf energy sites in retaliation for Israels bombing of the South Pars gas field. The Brent-WTI spread blew out to $12, the widest since 2015, reflecting how the US is partially insulated while the rest of the world isn’t. Middle Eastern grades like Oman crude have now topped $150.

• European Gas Prices Jumped 35% In A Single Day As LNG Supplies Dry Up

  European natural gas (TTF) surged as much as 35% on Wednesday after Iran's strikes on Gulf energy facilities. TTF has roughly doubled from pre-conflict levels. Asia is now turning back to coal as LNG supplies through Hormuz have dried up. Urea prices, a key input for fertiliser, have breached $600 per ton, up 55% since the start of the year. Around 44% of global sulphur exports and 31% of urea transit the Hormuz region. - This is where the war starts hitting food prices because fertiliser is the bridge between energy and agriculture. If these prices hold through planting season, the grocery bill is going to be a heck of a lot higher later this year.

• Sri Lanka And Thailand Bring In Fuel Rationing As The Crisis Spreads

  Both countries have announced formal fuel-rationing measures as oil prices continue to climb and supply from the Middle East remains disrupted. Sri Lanka is restricting purchases to specific days based on licence plate numbers, while Thailand has capped diesel sales for non-commercial vehicles. These are among the first developing nations to implement mandatory rationing since the conflict began.

• Australia Has One Month Before Fuel Rationing Becomes A Reality

  Australia holds roughly 36 days of petrol and 30 days of diesel in reserve, making it the only IEA member that hasn't met the mandatory 90-day reserve requirement since 2012. Over 90% of Australia's oil is imported, mostly as refined product from Asian refineries that themselves rely on Hormuz for 40-70% of their crude. Energy Minister Chris Bowen said contracted shipments are secure through April, but the Deputy PM conceded he "could not guarantee the supply if the conflict drags on." US oil tankers are already making the 14,000km journey across the Pacific to fill the gap, but they can't realistically cover 850,000 barrels a day of refined fuel needs. Several regional towns have already run out of fuel entirely, and petrol prices have jumped 50 cents per litre nationally.

• Trump Delays China Summit As Hormuz Tensions Overshadow Everything

  Trump announced he's asked to postpone his March 31st summit with Xi Jinping, saying he needs to stay in Washington while the conflict is ongoing. The meeting was expected to cover rare earths, trade, and critically, whether China would help reopen the Strait of Hormuz (unlikely). China imports the bulk of its oil through the Strait and has so far stayed on the sidelines while quietly benefiting from discounted crude. This is a significant delay because the US may only have two months of rare earth stockpiles left, and 71% of those imports come from China. Every week without a deal is a week closer to a real supply crunch for defence manufacturing.

• China Has Bought Gold Every Month For 16 Months Straight, And Retail Investors Are Piling In Too

  China's central bank added gold for the 16th consecutive month in February, bringing total reserves to 2,309 metric tonnes valued at $388 billion, closing in fast on the US which holds 8,133 tonnes. Retail investors have also gone all-in, with gold ETF purchases tripling over six months to around $60 billion, even as institutional investors have been selling since November. Gold is up 60% over the past year, though it has since pulled back 16% from its January peak, with leveraged ETFs and margin calls amplifying the drop.

• Blackstone Is Repackaging Its Struggling Private Credit Fund And Calling It Something Different

  Blackstone's flagship private credit fund BCRED, the world's largest business development company at $82.5 billion, is rushing to issue a collateralised loan obligation after being hit with redemption requests totalling 7.9% of the fund, above the statutory 7% limit. Rather than cap withdrawals like peers, Blackstone asked senior leaders to personally pitch in $150 million to cover the requests. The CLO repackages the same underlying loans into new bonds, changing the wrapper but not the assets. - This is the private credit stress we saw with Deutsche Bank last week, just wearing a different coat. Repackaging loans into a new structure with a new name doesn't change what's inside, and investors are starting to figure that out.

• The SEC Wants To Let Companies Report Earnings Twice A Year Instead Of Four Times

  The Securities and Exchange Commission is preparing a proposal, potentially as soon as April, to make quarterly earnings reports optional for publicly traded companies. The change would let firms report results every six months instead of every 90 days. Trump has backed the idea, arguing it would reduce costs and discourage short-term thinking. The EU and UK already dropped mandatory quarterly reporting about a decade ago, though many companies still report voluntarily. - This one is worth watching for investors. Less frequent reporting means less transparency, and in a market already dealing with elevated uncertainty, this could create bigger gaps between reality and share prices. Sceptics are right to be concerned.

• Jeff Bezos Is Raising $100 Billion To Use AI To Revive American Manufacturing, And Wants Data Centres In Space

  Jeff Bezos is in early talks to raise up to $100 billion for a fund targeting AI-driven transformation of manufacturing companies in semiconductors, defence, and aerospace, linked to his AI startup Project Prometheus which launched in late 2025 with $6.2 billion in funding. Separately, Bezos has predicted that within 10 to 20 years, gigawatt-scale data centres will be built in orbit to harness uninterrupted solar power, arguing space will eventually beat the economics of Earth-based facilities. - A very unique and creative idea, I wonder where he got that from? Hmm…

3. Chart Of The Week

Five Countries In The World's Top 10 Oil Producers Sit On The Strait Of Hormuz

The United States produced 13.58 million barrels of crude per day in 2025, making it the world's largest producer by a wide margin. Russia and Saudi Arabia came in second and third, each above 9.5 million barrels daily.

But the part of the chart that should worry you is the geographic concentration of the rest of the top 10. Five of those ten countries, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, the UAE, and Kuwait, all sit along the Persian Gulf and all depend on the Strait of Hormuz to get their oil to market.

Together, the Middle East produced 31 million barrels per day (last year), more than Africa, Europe, Central and South America, and Asia-Pacific combined. Nearly 90% of crude flowing through Hormuz heads to Asia, which explains why China, India, Japan, and South Korea are the most exposed to any disruption.

The US, by contrast, routes only about 7% of its crude through the Strait. That single statistic explains almost everything about who has the most to lose from this war, and why Washington's view looks so different from Beijing's or Tokyo's.

4. Market Overview

S&P 500 (U.S.)
In the U.S., the S&P 500 fell for a fourth straight week as the Iran war worsened and the Fed offered no relief. Early gains were wiped out on Wednesday after the Fed held rates and warned about rising inflation from oil. Iran and Israel then traded strikes on Gulf energy sites on Thursday, sending crude above $110. The index dropped to its lowest close of the year, and markets have now priced out any rate cuts for 2026.

FTSE 100 (UK)
In the U.K., the FTSE 100 had another painful week as the Iran conflict worsened. Early gains were wiped out from Wednesday after Iran struck energy sites in Qatar and Kuwait, sending oil above $110 a barrel. The Bank of England held rates on Thursday but warned on inflation, adding to the sell-off. Miners, banks and housebuilders fell hard, and the index briefly dipped below 10,000 for the first time since January.

S&P/TSX Composite (Canada)
In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite dropped to its lowest close of the year as falling gold prices hammered the mining sector. The index turned sharply lower from Wednesday after both the Bank of Canada and the Fed held rates and warned about inflation. Gold miners like Agnico Eagle and Barrick fell hard, and banks also weakened. Energy stocks held up on higher oil but couldn't make up for losses elsewhere.

ASX 200 (Australia)
In Australia, the ASX 200 fell for a second straight week as the Iran conflict and a second RBA rate hike weighed on sentiment. The central bank lifted rates to 4.10% on Tuesday in a tight 5-4 vote, and the market held up through midweek. But things fell apart on Thursday after Iran hit energy sites across the Gulf and gold prices tumbled, dragging miners and banks sharply lower. The index is now down around 4% for the year.

🇺🇸 United States – S&P 500

• High: 6,752.91

  Low: 6,539.00

🇬🇧 UK - FTSE 100

• High: 10,446.32

• Low: 9,933.64

🇨🇦 Canada – TSX Composite

• High: 33,254.64

• Low: 31,408.51

🇦🇺 Australia – ASX 200

• High: 8,649.20

• Low: 8,428.40

Cryptocurrency:

• Bitcoin (BTC): -5.3%

• Ethereum (ETH): -3.0%

• Tether (USDT): 0.0%

• XRP (XRP): -0.9%

• BNB (BNB): -4.5%

• USDC (USDC): 0.0%

• Solana (SOL): -3.4%

• TRON (TRX): 5.8%

• Figure Heloc (FIGR_HELOC): -0.6%

• Dogecoin (DOGE): -6.7%

Metals Market:

Gold–Silver Ratio: ~65:1, up nearly 6% this week. Silver got hit way harder than gold after the Fed's hawkish meeting and inflation came in at 3.4%, double what was expected. Silver dropped over 12% in one day to under $68, while gold held above $4,600. The Fed said they'll only cut rates once this year despite the Iran war, killing any hopes for easier money.

Gold & Silver:

• Gold: was flat 0.09% with a Week High: $4,579.27 & Week Low: $4,579.27

• Silver: Fell 13.34% with a Week High: $82.57 & Week Low: $66.23

5. Faith & Success

There’s a lot going on right now… and the uncertainty is causing anxiety to skyrocket… 

Yet as easy as it is to get pulled into thinking ‘fearful’ thoughts… I’d suggest that instead, you simply take a moment to think about 2-3 small things that you can do this weekend to better prepare yourself. 

I'm not saying to prepare for every last eventuality, (because you probably won't be able to anyway!) 

If you've ever watched the show doomsday preppers, you'll know that even people who have spent years building the most sophisticated survival plan and supplies, can make very small mistakes that would cause their survival plan to fail. 

In one episode I watched many years back now, a man that had spent years building an underground bunker - got it very wrong. Everything looked absolutely flawless and perfect… yet it was pointed out that his air filtration system had a major flaw in it, and would actually be weaponised against him in a SHTF scenario as he didn’t have the right air filters on it and someone could smoke him out.

And yes, I get this is a completely extreme example here… but I'm just using it for emphasis to show that you can prepare for every last detail, spend your entire life doing it - but when crunch time comes, there will always be something that you hadn't thought of or even prepared for…

And this is why I've given you this verse today, because it really brings you back to reality. 

There's no point in worrying or over-worrying about what’s to come, because what's to come, will simply come, whether you worry about it or not. 

So given the choice, I'd rather just NOT worry about it… I'll deal with it when it happens and adjust my plan accordingly.

That doesn't mean I'm not going to prepare, it just means I'm not going to worry about the future; that’s what back up and emergency plans are for; they remove that worry. 

In other words, what I’m saying is that you don’t need to have everything figured out… I don’t. I have a lot figured out, but I don't have everything figured out… I'll simply cross that bridge when it comes to it using the plans I've put in place.

So being calm in times like these is a real advantage. And I think that the people who stay grounded are the ones best positioned for whatever comes next.

Ok, well that was probably the longest newsletter I've written in a long time so I’ll wrap up now.

Until next time,

God Bless,

Neil,

P.S. Enjoy your new training programs: LINK - they’re going to transform your life!

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DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is 100% FREE & is designed to help your thinking, not direct it. These newsletters shall NOT be construed as tax, legal, or financial advice and may be outdated or inaccurate; all decisions made as a result of this information are yours alone.

Trading/Liability: Neil McCoy-Ward operates/trades under a private Ltd company within the Isle of Man.