Your IMPORTANT Weekly Briefing: (20th February 2026)

The Neil McCoy-Ward Newsletter

February 20, 2026

Opening Note…

Hi and welcome back again this week!

Firstly, before we even get into the news… a quick announcement on my new program: ‘Digital Product Riches’

The pre-release for this will be coming in early March. Existing students, Patreon & Email members will always get the largest discount available (Yes, that means you)…

The program will be made up of three courses, each being incredibly valuable:

Part 1:  The Digital Product ‘BLUEPRINT’ 

Part 2:  Digital Product ‘MARKETING’

Part 3:  Digital Product ‘SALES’

The outcome of the program is three fold, 1. to enable you to create digital products quickly, (with the optional help of AI), 2. To know how to market these products for maximum reach and 3. How to actually sell your products using my unique sales system (without needing to spend a penny on advertising!)

The idea is that once you’ve done the ground work and built the marketing and sales funnel, these products will sell themselves without you needing to do anything other than minor housekeeping and tweaks. 

Think about the benefits of this, a system the works on autopilot and earns you money while you sleep vs going to a job everyday and exchanging your time for money… 

For the best chance of success, I would recommend the entire bundle of three courses, because this will give you the best value for money (the savings will be huge). And as always, these are very long and detailed courses, comprising everything I know about the topic in question…

For those of you who have taken the Rapid Cash flow program, this next program will be the natural progression in your education.

Because it covers not only the five points of the previous program model, but also the SIXTH bonus point (the X factor). Protecting your income from AI for years to come, and building a nice little nest egg in the process!

So if you're looking to replace your full-time income, start your own digital business that you can operate from anywhere in the world, or simply just earn a little bit of side income for investing or your pension, this program will be a perfect fit.

I’ll be announcing it here in the next 2-3 weeks…

Ok, let's break down the latest...

Table of Contents

1. Weekly Spotlight

Talks in Geneva. Warships in the Gulf.

While US and Iranian diplomats were sitting in Geneva on Tuesday trying to negotiate a nuclear deal, Iran simultaneously closed the Strait of Hormuz (the narrow waterway that carries 20% of the world's entire oil supply) for live-fire military drills. They haven't done that since the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. And they chose to do it on the exact same day as the peace talks.

So what's actually happening?

Let me give you the backstory quickly, because there are a lot of moving parts here.

Iran has been enriching uranium for a while now. Late last year, the IAEA, that's the UN's nuclear watchdog, flagged an unprecedented stockpile.

Then, in late December, mass protests erupted across the country over Iran's collapsing economy. The UN estimates say that at least 5,000 protesters were killed (it’s hard to confirm this number).

Trump has now moved an armada into the region and started making remarks about military action. Two aircraft carrier strike groups are now in or heading to the Middle East. More than 50 F-35s, F-22s and F-16s have repositioned to the region in just the last 48 hours. US officials say all forces needed for a potential strike will be in place by mid-March. Though if something is going to happen, it will almost certainly happen before that for the element of surprise.

So that's the (overly simplistic) backdrop to these "diplomatic talks." There’s always more depth to each side of the story of course, this is just a snippet.

The two sides have now met twice, first in Oman on February 6th, then in Geneva on Tuesday. These “productive” talks are indirect, meaning the Americans and Iranians don't even sit in the same room. Oman physically carries the messages back and forth between two parties.

After Geneva, Iran's foreign minister came out saying "good progress" had been made. The US was far less optimistic. Iran is now going away to write up formal proposals, and they'll reconvene in two weeks.

In other words, nothing has been agreed upon; not even close.

They will want you to think this is about stopping Iran from getting a nuclear bomb. And yes, that's part of it. But there's always a reason, and then there's the real reason.

Iran's nuclear programme has already taken a serious hit. Last year's "Midnight Hammer" operation bombed centrifuges to the point of being largely ineffective. The US claims that Iran is weaker right now than it has been in a long time. And that weakness is exactly what makes this moment so attractive to Washington.

We have already heard Trump say that regime change in Tehran "may be the best thing that can happen.”

So Iran finds itself in a bind, because it can't match the US militarily. But it can make the cost of any attack feel enormous, and that's exactly what I think closing the Strait was about.

Russia then joined in with naval drills in the Sea of Oman the very next day; I very much doubt this was a coincidence…

So, where does this go? I see 3 possibilities:

First: talks drag on, Iran's written proposals will look cooperative, but they could hold off on their two non-negotiables, 1. enrichment stays in Iran, and 2. missiles are nobody else's business.

Second: There are US strikes on Iran's remaining nuclear infrastructure. The problem here isn't the strikes themselves but what Iran does next. Gulf Arab states have already said they won't allow attacks launched from their soil. Once that exchange starts, nobody really knows where it stops, it could be bad for the region, but I see minimal fallout for the everyday American on US soil.

Third: A genuine deal is the longest shot. Khamenei has rejected Trump's conditions, and Trump can't be seen signing something that looks like the Obama nuclear agreement he spent years attacking. Both leaders are as trapped by their own audiences as they are by each other.

If I were betting on this, I’d expect US military strikes in the coming weeks.

2. Quick Takes

Here are the other top stories shaping the week:

  • Iran And Russia Double Down On Energy Alliance As Sanctions Bite
    Russia is now developing seven Iranian oilfields, accounting for 6% of Iran's total oil output, and that share is expected to double to 12% within a few years. This week, Russia's Energy Minister flew to Tehran with a high-level delegation to discuss adding yet another oilfield to the pile, and on top of that, the two countries have signed a $25 billion deal to build nuclear power plants in southern Iran. - These are two countries that the West has tried to isolate, quietly building their own energy network, and so far, it appears to be working. The harder the squeeze, the tighter they get. A Russia-Iran bloc with serious oil production and nuclear capacity would be seen by some as a threat.

  • US Pulls Its Last 1,000 Troops From Syria, Leaving Kurds Behind
    After ten years in Syria, the US is pulling out. They will be handing their bases over to the new Damascus government run by Ahmed al-Sharaa, the man the US had on its terror list not long ago under the name Abu Mohammad al-Jolani.

  • Canada Opens Fast-Track Immigration To Foreign Military Recruits

    Canada announced that it’s 14,000 soldiers short for their war fighting capabilities… but rather than asking why its own citizens won't sign up, the government is fast-tracking foreign military professionals directly into the armed forces! The job categories are broad enough that foreign combat personnel could enter under the guise of support roles. And of course, this entire idea was done with no public debate. - Canadians should be asking why they couldn’t even raise 14,000 from a population of 40 million. Yikes…

  • Trump Is Threatening To Walk Out Of The Global Energy Watchdog - Again
    The US is once again telling the International Energy Agency to change or lose Washington's support. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said this week the US is fully behind the IEA if it gets back to energy security and data, but if it stays "dominated and infused with climate", they're out. The agency has already shifted once, quietly dropping its forecast that oil demand would peak soon. - It's worth paying attention to this one because the IEA's forecasts shape how governments, energy firms, and investors think about the future. If the US forces a real change in how it operates, or just leaves, the effects will spread well beyond the energy world.

  • US Brokers Deal To Replace Russian Oil In India With Venezuelan Crude

    Washington is in active talks to sell Venezuelan oil to India as part of a broader trade agreement that cuts US tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18%. The condition is simple, yet hard: stop buying Russian oil. India had become Russia's biggest customer after the 2022 conflict, buying up heavily discounted oil that Western nations claimed was bankrolling the war. Now the US has licensed trading houses Vitol and Trafigura to sell Venezuelan oil as a replacement, and Indian state refiners have already placed orders. A final trade deal is expected "sooner rather than later", according to the US envoy in New Delhi.

  • Blue Owl Locks Investors Out Of Private Credit Fund Permanently
    New York investment firm Blue Owl has told investors in its retail debt fund that they can no longer take their money out on a quarterly basis. From now on, the firm will return cash gradually as it sells assets over the coming quarters and years. To get things moving, it's selling $1.4bn in loans across three funds, with $600m coming from the affected retail fund, about 30% of its total assets. The fund has been frozen since November, after a merger plan fell apart that would have landed investors with a 20% loss. Withdrawals had been climbing fast, nearly doubling in Q3 2025, which likely forced the decision. - This is a good reminder that when private credit funds talk about "limited liquidity," what they often mean is: “you’re probably not getting your money back when you want it.”

  • UK's Record Budget Surplus Is A One-Off Hit, Not A Recovery 

    Britain just posted its biggest ever January budget surplus at £30.4bn, and the government is already spinning it as a sign the finances are turning a corner. Don't be fooled. Most of the money came from a one-time flood of capital gains tax receipts, up nearly £7bn to £17bn, because people rushed to sell assets before last autumn's expected tax rise. The Treasury didn't earn this through a stronger economy; it effectively borrowed it from future years. 

  • Labour Eyes U-Turn On Youth Minimum Wage As Jobless Rate Hits 11-Year High
    Youth unemployment in Britain has climbed to 16.1%, the worst in 11 years and now higher than the eurozone average, and Labour is discreetly looking at dropping its own promise to give all adults the same minimum wage. Business groups have been telling ministers the policy is pricing young people out of the job market entirely, and it seems some of those warnings are landing. The numbers are hard to ignore: minimum pay for 21 to 22-year-olds has gone up 33% in two years, and a government review found that 45% of 24-year-olds who aren't working or in education have never had a job at all. If Labour backs down, it'll be their 13th policy reversal in 18 months. - There's a real irony here which I’ve discussed before - a policy built to stop young people from being paid low wages may have ended up stopping them from getting a job at all.

  • UK Retailers Are Cutting Jobs And Hours
    More than half of retail finance directors in Britain are planning to cut hours or overtime, nearly half are looking at head office job cuts, and a third plan to reduce store staff. The reason is pretty straightforward: employment costs jumped by £5bn in 2025, pushed up by Labour's National Insurance rise and what we spoke about above (minimum wage increases). The sector has already lost 74,000 jobs in the past year and a quarter of a million over five years, with AI and automation picking up pace as retailers look to do more with fewer people. Nearly 70% of retail bosses are now pessimistic about where things are headed, up from 56% just seven months ago. - When you put this alongside the youth unemployment story above, the picture becomes concerning. Labour's policies were designed to protect workers, but what they've actually done is accelerate the removal of the entry-level and part-time jobs that young people and career returners rely on most. A rapid rise to 16% youth unemployment doesn't happen by accident, it’s from Government policies.

  • Big Tech Is Now Looking To Fund Uranium Mines To Power Its AI Ambitions
    AI data centres are burning through so much electricity that Big Tech is now considering putting money directly into uranium mining. The CEO of NexGen Energy, which is building Canada's largest uranium project in Saskatchewan, said this week his company has had early conversations with tech firms about both funding and long-term uranium supply. The numbers explain why US electricity demand is growing at 2% a year through 2030, and data centres alone are expected to account for half of that. Nuclear keeps looking like the answer: always-on and not dependent on the weather. - There's something almost funny about this; the same tech companies that spent years announcing 100% renewable energy targets are now quietly backing uranium mines. It turns out powering the AI revolution takes a bit more than wind turbines after all...

NEIL’S TAKEAWAYS:

In The United States:
The Fed minutes were released on Wednesday and caught markets off guard. Several officials discussed the possibility of rate hikes if inflation stays above 2%. This is the first time rate increases have been on the table since 2023. The committee is deeply divided. Some want to hold steady and wait for more data. Governors Miran and Waller actually voted against the January hold and wanted another quarter-point cut. The tension is whether to focus on fighting inflation or supporting a labour market that's sending mixed signals.

The economy is starting to look like the early 2000s all over again. GDP growth is running around 2.7% (quarterly annualised rate), which is solid. But job creation is barely keeping up with population growth. Initial jobless claims this week dropped to 206,000, near multi-decade lows, which should signal a healthy labour market. Except hiring has essentially stopped. It's high output with low labour input. It’s looking like a jobless recovery pattern, like what followed the tech bubble. The usual explanation would be AI pushing productivity, but US workplace AI adoption is actually surprisingly low compared to places like the UK, which is dealing with similar job issues. Either growth doesn't create jobs the way it used to, or something's breaking in how we measure employment.

Prepare: The Fed's March meeting just became more interesting. With rate hikes back in the conversation and inflation data potentially misleading, the next CPI and jobs reports will matter more than usual. Watch for hints from Fed speakers before March about which side of the debate is winning.

Across Europe:
Eurozone industrial production dropped 1.4% in December, the worst monthly decline since April. Germany got hit hardest with a 2.9% fall. Capital goods production fell 1.9%. The year-over-year growth rate slowed from 2.2% to 1.2%. Manufacturing is supposed to be recovering, but December's numbers show it's fragile at best.

The euro isn't helping things either. It's been trading around $1.18-1.19, up about 9% from early 2025 lows. That's pricing European exporters out of markets just as they're trying to stabilise.

Bundesbank President Nagel used his Munich Security Conference speech this week to push for euro-denominated stablecoins and a digital euro. His argument: USD-pegged stablecoins control 99% of the market, which he claims risks "digital dollarisation" and could impair the ECB's monetary policy.

Prepare: Watch for ECB digital euro legislation in first half of 2026. If manufacturing data keeps disappointing and the euro stays elevated, the ECB might cut faster than markets expect despite inflation being under control.

On the Global Stage:
India's trade deficit jumped from $25 billion to $34.68 billion, but here's what caught my attention: gold imports nearly tripled to $12.07 billion. ETF inflows stayed strong, physical demand stayed high, prices kept climbing, and Indians kept buying. When you're already bleeding dollars on a widening deficit, and you still prioritise gold at this scale, you're hedging against something. Central banks have been doing this for years. Now Indian households and institutions are doing it as well.

This comes right after India's trade deal, where Trump dropped tariffs from 50% to 18% in exchange for India doubling US imports and cutting Russian oil. Exports barely budged, up 0.6% to $36.56 billion. Imports jumped 19.2% to $71.24 billion. India just committed to massively increasing what it buys from America while already running these kinds of numbers.

The IMF put out its annual China review this week, and it said China's policies are "causing waste at home and damage abroad." In other words, stop flooding the world with cheap exports and get your own consumers spending. China hit 5% growth in 2025, the IMF projects 4.5% for 2026, but domestic demand is weak, and deflation keeps creeping in. China can't export its way out of this forever. The rest of the world is running out of patience for absorbing the overcapacity.

Prepare: Watch gold. If Indians keep buying at this pace despite the deficit hit, they're pricing in dollar or geopolitical risk the market hasn't caught yet. China's export model is running into walls globally. The transition to domestic consumption will take years and won't be smooth.

3. Chart Of The Week

The World Is Divided On US Debt

The US is carrying $38.6 trillion in debt, with foreign investors holding a record $9.4 trillion of it, and a clear divide is emerging in who's buying and who's selling. Over the past year, the UK, Japan, and Canada led purchases, collectively adding over $330 billion in US Treasuries.

Meanwhile, China dumped $86 billion, continuing a multi-year retreat now down 11%, while Brazil and India shed a combined $108 billion. If we compare to last week’s chart of the week, we can see the pattern emerge. The BRICS bloc is quietly but consistently reducing its exposure to US debt, shifting reserves into gold and other assets instead. Europe and Japan are effectively picking up the slack for now.

The numbers still work in America's favour today, but the trend lines are what matter. If the countries currently buying slow down, or the sellers accelerate, the US will need to offer even higher yields to attract buyers, making its already eye-watering debt interest bill even larger.

4. Market Overview

S&P 500 (U.S.)
The S&P 500 stayed flat this week. Technology stocks rebounded on Wednesday on Meta and Nvidia strength, pushing the index above its 50-day average temporarily. However, Thursday saw selling as Walmart disappointed with weak guidance and Fed minutes showed officials split on rates, with some willing to hike if inflation persists. Oil spiked on Iran tensions, adding to market volatility.

FTSE 100 (UK)
The FTSE 100 surged this week, hitting multiple record highs, including an all-time peak on Wednesday. Strong UK retail sales and a record budget surplus reduced rate cut expectations, boosting banks. Mining stocks rallied on rebounding copper prices.

S&P/TSX Composite (Canada)
The TSX hit a record high Thursday, gaining for the week. Energy stocks surged as oil prices jumped on U.S.-Iran tensions, lifting Cenovus, Imperial Oil, and Canadian Natural Resources. Gold miners advanced on higher bullion prices amid geopolitical risks. Banks traded mixed, while Teck Resources fell despite beating earnings as investors took profits.

ASX 200 (Australia)
The ASX 200 rose this week, gaining for a second straight week. Thursday saw the index hit a four-month high on strong earnings. BHP delivered blockbuster results, while NAB and other big banks pushed financials to record highs. Energy stocks surged on oil's rally.

🇺🇸 United States – S&P 500

  • High: 6,907.21

    Low: 6,775.92

🇬🇧 UK - FTSE 100

  • High: 10,713.72

  • Low: 10,458.41

🇨🇦 Canada – TSX Composite

  • High: 33,669.56

  • Low: 32,549.30

🇦🇺 Australia – ASX 200

  • High: 9,110.50

  • Low: 8,920.30

Cryptocurrency:

  • Bitcoin (BTC): -2.7%

  • Ethereum (ETH): -5.4%

  • Tether (USDT): 0.0%

  • XRP (XRP): 0.8%

  • BNB (BNB): 1.6%

  • USDC (USDC): 0.0%

  • Solana (SOL): -1.0%

  • TRON (TRX): 2.3%

  • Dogecoin (DOGE): 3.6%

  • Figure Heloc (FIGR_HELOC): -1.0%

Metals Market:

Gold–Silver Ratio: ~62:1. The ratio held relatively steady this week despite some volatility in both metals. Gold traded around the key level of $5,000 per ounce while silver hovered near $78. Wednesday saw both metals rally sharply on escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and safe-haven demand, with gold jumping over the $5,000 mark. Thursday saw consolidation with gold near $5,000 and silver around $78. The ratio stayed in the low-to-mid 60s range as both metals moved largely in tandem on geopolitical risks.

Gold & Silver:

  • Gold: Rose about 0.63% with a Week High: $5,126.97 & Week Low: $4,853.04

  • Silver: Rose 5.04% with a Week High: $84.37 & Week Low: $72.31

5. Faith & Success

❝

“The plans of the diligent lead surely to abundance.”

— Proverbs 21:5

Being successful isn’t about luck, it’s about awareness, preparation and positioning yourself so that when opportunities show up, you’re ready to act upon them. But there’s also more to it than that… 

We’ve discussed before how the bible is really the earliest form of what modern science now calls the ‘quantum realm’. Not necessarily from a 1’s and 0’s perspective, but more from a linguistics outlook, for example: “Knock and the door shall be opened to you” - In the modern day, this is converted into something more simplistic ‘self help’, such as: “you’ve got to first be willing to know what you want, then knock on the right doors and go for it!” Although, that’s overly simplistic too… 

Because it doesn't account for the ‘thinking’ behind the line. Or what teachers used to call ‘daydreaming’ - which was actually a very powerful creative force, that for many - was switched off too early. I've always been a daydreamer, and I've always spent most of my time in my head thinking, solving complex problems… I used to think I was weird or an oddball for doing this, but modern science is teaching us that many intelligent people do this. So now I don't feel quite so weird! 

Daydreaming is actually tapping into the quantum field, we also call this ‘visualising’ in today’s age: ‘visualise what you want for longer enough with gratitude and confidence that these things are coming to you and they will manifest’ (etc)…

And with the latest AI advancements, we’re seeing some truly remarkable and somewhat astonishing things that even AI is surprised by within the biblical texts… not from a ‘hidden mathematical code’ (type perspective), but more like: Large-scale narrative symmetry across entire sections, thematic mirroring around central pivot verses and repeated structural patterns that weren’t obvious to readers before AI.

Some of these things are incredibly advanced, and considering the different writers involved - it’s truly impressive, all written by hand without computers to hyperlink and reference back and forth.

But since I'm no biblical scholar, I will leave this topic to those who are.

But this particular verse draws a sharp contrast: diligence versus haste. 

In today’s world, everything pushes for speed, AI for quick gains, fast trades, overnight success. But if you think about it, real abundance rarely comes from rushing. It comes from thinking ahead, planning carefully, and executing consistently.

Opportunities are everywhere, but not everyone sees them. Those who are prepared step forward while others hesitate, and as we know - he/(she) who hesitates is lost.

This week, think about your income and the risk of AI against that; do you need to learn new skills? Strengthen your position at work? Build up an emergency buffer? Earn more money?

It’s important you stay sharp and be diligent, that’s how you’ll continue to be abundant in this new world we are moving into.

Until next time,

God Bless,

Neil,

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DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is 100% FREE & is designed to help your thinking, not direct it. These newsletters shall NOT be construed as tax, legal, or financial advice and may be outdated or inaccurate; all decisions made as a result of this information are yours alone.

Trading/Liability: Neil McCoy-Ward operates/trades under a private Ltd company within the Isle of Man.