Your IMPORTANT Weekly Briefing: (19th September 2025)

The Neil McCoy-Ward Newsletter

September 19, 2025

Opening Note…

Welcome back to this week’s newsletter!

As I write this today, what concerns me the most is the rhetoric within the European Union. It seems that some of these leaders (Macron in particular) are hell bent on war with Russia, and “as soon as possible” (once they have enough arms of course)…

Macron has his own problems to deal with while Paris burns today… and yet - he's out in the public making statements regarding how the UK should not be able to get any of the €900 billion defence fund. I thought his language was interesting, as if the UK would just be getting ‘free money’. Of course, that's not the case. If the UK did receive any of these funds, it would be in exchange for weapons produced by UK defence companies…

And that's exactly the point, it's all about money. There's always money for war but never money for the poor…

Now let's break down the latest...

Table of Contents

1. Weekly Spotlight

UK Debt Trouble & Inflation Still Stuck

I always follow the UK economic news closely, and the biggest issue this week, in my view, is how UK fiscal and inflation pressures are piling up at the same time…

What Happened?

The UK government borrowed about £83.8 billion in the first five months of the fiscal year 2025. That’s much higher than forecasts (roughly £72.4 billion), the main increase is from rising public service costs and interest payments.

Inflation in the UK remains at 3.8% - still quite above the Bank of England’s target of 2%.

The Bank of England kept its main interest rate steady at 4%. No cuts this week, despite some internal debate. Also, it is slowing how fast it’s selling government bonds (quantitative tightening) to about £70 billion over the next year.

This meant the pound (GBP£) took a hit. Partly because of the surprise borrowing numbers (which hurt confidence), plus concerns that inflation won’t drop fast enough.

Why It Matters Now (For Us)

  • High inflation + high borrowing = tightrope. If inflation doesn’t come down, the cost of living stays high. And because the government is borrowing more than expected, taxes might have to go up, public spending cut, or both. 

  • Interest rates staying high means loans, mortgages, and credit cards remain expensive.

  • Markets don’t like surprises in public borrowing. It can push up yields on government debt (making future borrowing more expensive) and weaken the currency. That in turn can feed inflation, and you will see imported goods become more expensive.

What Could Happen Next

Well, firstly, a possibility I can see is that inflation stays high (food inflation particularly), falling slowly rather than dropping quickly. If that happens, interest rates might not come down until well into 2026. I think the autumn budget is going to be a nightmare and might include: more tax increases, government service cuts, or both. I’m not sure how Labour will cope with their integrity already shattered. This is going to see more pressure on households, especially those on lower incomes or with high debt.

Top tip: pay off your high interest debt.

2. Quick Takes

Here are the top stories shaping the week:

  • Donald Trump joins royals for state banquet at Windsor – King Charles hosted Trump at Windsor Castle. The US president lavished praise upon the UK, saying “seen from American eyes, the word special does not begin to do justice” to the relationship between the two countries. These words will have been like water in a desert to Keir Starmer, facing economic challenges and eroding trust from the public. As part of the visit £150bn worth of American investment into the UK was unveiled. Many media outlets saw the need to highlight that there were crowds protesting the visit of the US President. I’m always amused when the media chooses to magnify what seems to have been a very limited protest against Trump’s state visit of hundreds of people, yet they downplayed the Freedom Parade numbers to thousands when it was hundreds of thousands if not a million people.

  • Israel to ‘give appropriate response’ if EU imposes new restrictions — foreign ministry – Brussels has proposed imposing tariffs on about €5.8 billion of Israeli goods. Israel condemned the plan as “morally and politically distorted,” claiming legal flaws, and warned it will respond, if the EU moves forward. Another flare in political tensions between the EU and Israel, which is very intertwined economically with the bloc.

  • Jerome Powell's Fed Enters "Nightmare Territory" – The Fed cut rates 25 bps to a new range of 4.00%–4.25%. This is its first cut since December 2024, citing a weakening labor market even as inflation sits near ~2.9% (Aug 2025). Markets price high odds of another cut in late October; Chair Powell framed the move as “risk management.” Analysts warn the Fed is boxed in by sticky inflation, rising unemployment, and record debt. - Risk management is a key word here, and something I’ve been saying we should all be doing more in our own portfolios…

  • Are Meta And Zuckerberg Ready To Fight For Free Speech? A recent column in USA Today by legal scholar Jonathan Turley highlights a potential shift toward stronger free-speech protections at Meta, building on Meta’s January policy update (“More Speech and Fewer Mistakes”) pledging corrections on moderation. The column credits Elon Musk for turning the tide against political censorship when he purchased Twitter (now known as X) and releasing the so-called “Twitter files,” which exposed the clampdown on free speech by government, academia and social media companies. Watch for how far Meta goes in reversing past practices. - As we know, they were a culprit in censorship for a long time…but Zuckerberg has been trying to buddy up to Trump ever since the election win. I think this is just Zuckerberg being Zuckerberg. He comes across as a weak individual and so goes with the flow, he does what he’s told. Now all of a sudden he’s a free speech advocate? Give me a break…

  • ABC's Matt Gutman Says He Didn't Mean to Romanticize Tyler Robinson's Texts to Trans Lover – Gutman described the newly released messages between Robinson and his roommate/romantic partner as “very touching in a way that many of us didn’t expect,” calling them “a very intimate portrait into this relationship” and highlighting affectionate phrases like “my love” and “I want to protect you, my love.” He pointed out the duality of Robinson allegedly carrying out a violent assassination of Charlie Kirk in front of children while also showing emotional affection in private texts. Gutman later apologized on X, saying he did not intend to romanticize the messages and condemned the crime. - Left-leaning news outlets are exposing their blatant bias daily after last week’s incident. I am glad that some are finally being held accountable…

  • Russia-Belarus Zapad 2025 joint strategic drills conclude
    Military Exercises between the two countries ran from Sept 12–16, showcasing air-defense and strategic capabilities, and drawing observers from 55 countries at the Mulino range; outside reporting notes wider footprint across dozens of training areas and participation estimates in the tens of thousands. - I covered this in my video on Wednesday. It is very interesting that so many peacetime drills, exercises and operations are happening all at once…

  • Police surprised by the size of conservative rally in London 
    The Sep 13th London rally organized by Tommy Robinson, and joined by Elon Musk by video link, drew “70,000” according to many news outlets. Police forces claim they were taken aback by the sheer numbers present. And were grateful that things remained mostly peaceful. Can you imagine if it didn’t stay peaceful? The numbers were so vast, that the Police would have been overrun very quickly.

  • DHS Secretary Kristi Noem says Kirk’s last text to her warned about threat of illegal immigration in big cities – Noem told Fox News that Charlie Kirk texted her the day before his assassination about illegal-immigration threats in major cities; coverage reiterates the timeline and ongoing case developments. - Charlie’s voice is still being heard, and will be for decades to come.

  • Precious gold samples stolen in raid on French natural history museum – Thieves hit Paris’s national natural history museum, stealing historic native gold specimens (estimated €600k street value) in a professional, pre-dawn operation discovered by cleaning staff; organized-crime unit is leading the probe. Museum robberies in France have been on the rise in recent years since the police have been defunded. What a surprise…

  • Ukrainian diplomat believes sending UN peacekeepers to the country ineffective – Foreign Ministry spokesman Georgy Tikhiy said Kyiv is sceptical of UN and OSCE mechanisms, pointing to past failures in monitoring ceasefires in Donbas. He argued that peacekeepers would not meaningfully change battlefield realities or halt Russian aggression. Instead, Ukraine believes the priority is continued military and financial support from allies, not international forces with limited mandates. This reflects Kyiv’s stance that peacekeeping missions often freeze conflicts rather than resolve them, and that Russia would likely block or undermine any UN deployment through its Security Council veto. - So keep sending us money, and whatever you do, don’t stop the war.

NEIL’S TAKEAWAYS:

In the United States
The Federal Reserve finally trimmed interest rates for the first time this year. Inflation rose in August to 2.9%, which gives us a little insight into the concerns the Fed has. With higher inflation and lower rates, this means there is a bigger concern of a slowing economy that outweighs the risk of inflation.

During the meeting, the Fed raised the point that while unemployment is rising, it remains historically low. However, the Fed is growing concerned about the slowdown in hiring. This is because if the Fed waits too long, broader job losses could follow. The U.S. economy has shown signs of cooling, with businesses pulling back on new hires and some industries already cutting staff. I would think that this is one of the core reasons the Fed cut rates this time.

At the same time, another event happened this week that we will need to keep a close eye on. Tricolor Holdings, a subprime auto lender with close to $2 billion in debt, collapsed. Bondholders missed payments, and even the usual reports showing how cash was being collected and distributed were missing. Investigators are now looking into whether the same collateral was pledged to multiple lenders, while banks and funds scramble to protect their positions.

This is worth paying attention to because it shows how fragile parts of the credit market have become. Auto delinquencies and repossessions are moving back toward 2009 levels, and if subprime car loans are breaking down, it raises the question of what comes next. Buy-Now-Pay-Later and private credit are areas that could be vulnerable.

Prepare: Don’t be lulled by the short-term relief of lower rates. Pay attention to the more fundamental signals: weakening jobs, unsustainable debt, and structural disruption, because they point to more turbulence ahead.

Across Europe
The European Central Bank held rates steady this week, keeping its deposit rate at 2% while being confident that the eurozone economy remains strong. Inflation has now slipped to 2%, though core prices are still a bit high. Growth projections were nudged slightly higher for 2025, but the ECB admitted that external demand is weakening. Across the Channel, the UK had new headline inflation numbers at 3.8% in August, food prices accelerated again, and wage growth is slowing.

Prepare: While things like lower inflation are a good thing for Europe, trade shocks and consumer strain are causes for concern to keep an eye on.

On the Global Stage
China’s economy lost momentum again, with industrial output and retail sales both slowing, a sign that even with government support, growth targets may slip. The EU struck a long-delayed trade deal with Indonesia, a reminder that nations are racing to diversify supply chains and secure resources like nickel and copper.

The International Energy Agency has also just said that the world must spend roughly $540 billion every year just to maintain current oil output through 2050. Without continued investment, global supply could shrink by the equivalent of Brazil and Norway’s combined production each year.

Prepare: Expect volatility as global trade moves and monetary policies start to separate. We can also look to oil prices, which may look weak now, but the IEA’s outlook suggests that low prices are temporary. As producers cut back on drilling, the risk grows of a future supply squeeze, and potentially much higher prices down the line.

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4. Chart Of The Week: Fed Rate Cuts Vs Other G7 Countries

What do Fed rate cuts mean for American business leaders? Even with the latest rate cut, the U.S. interest rate is the highest among G7 countries. This means that borrowing costs remain relatively high, though loan rates may ease somewhat with the latest cut. 

It also means that the U.S. may deliver the highest returns for conservative investors. This will drive higher demand for American currency as investors purchase U.S. bonds. Exporters will face headwinds, while importers get some relief from the dollar but higher costs from tariffs.

5. Market Overview

U.S. stocks are pushing higher, with the S&P 500 posting modest gains. Canada’s TSX is up by about 0.45%, Australia’s ASX is inching up, while the FTSE 100 in London is largely flat, showing very little movement.

🇺🇸 United States – S&P 500

  • High: 6,652.62

  • Low: 6,563.55

🇬🇧 UK - FTSE 100

  • High: 9,291.13

  • Low: 9,198.03

🇨🇦 Canada – TSX Composite

  • High: 29,502.02

  • Low: 29,217.06

🇦🇺 Australia – ASX 200

  • High: 8,882.70

  • Low: 8,743.50

Cryptocurrency:

  • Bitcoin (BTC): Trading between $116,000 – $116,600+

    Ethereum (ETH): Trading between $4,350 – $4,550

    XRP (XRP): Trading between $2.95 – $3.05

    BNB (BNB): Trading between $880 – $995

    Solana (SOL): Trading between $220 – $246

    Dogecoin (DOGE): Trading between $0.24 – $0.28

    Cardano (ADA): Trading between $0.88 – $0.92

Chart:

Metals Market:

Gold Silver Ratio:

Gold & Silver:

  • Gold: Low: around $3,640/oz − High: around $3,710/oz

    Silver: Low: around $41.50/oz − High: around $42.70/oz

Neil’s Investor Takeaways:

In the current environment, a more cautious approach makes sense. While rate cuts could offer a lift to short-term sentiment, signs of weakness in the labour market, patchy trade flows, and historically high debt levels all point to potential volatility ahead. For now, it may be wise to prioritise capital preservation, with an eye on growth opportunities as they emerge. Keeping an eye on oil prices is also something we can do. For those of you who are into commodities, you may wish to look further into how you can capitalise on this.

Did you know that I now create stock tips in my Patreon? I find 1-3 undervalued stocks per month and I write about them (higher tiers only). You can join here: https://www.patreon.com/neilmccoyward 

6. Faith & Success

“Do nothing out of selfish ambition or vain conceit. Rather, in humility value others above yourselves.”
— Philippians 2:3

Have you done something to lift someone else up recently? This verse reminds us that real success is measured by how we elevate others, not just by personal achievement. Wealthy people often admit that, by itself, financial success brings an emptiness with it. When you have helped others along the way, that makes all the difference. It’s why you often see highly successful people starting to change emphasis and start to give back and invest in the success of others.

This is the essence of humble leadership - looking out for others and valuing their goals even above our own. When leadership flows from humility, it creates trust, unity, and impact that lasts. In an interesting twist I have discovered, helping others also results in reaping back benefits. To quote Ralph Waldo Emerson: “It is one of the beautiful compensations of life that no man can sincerely try to help another without helping himself.”

Success rooted in service to others multiplies opportunity, because when you focus on helping people rise, you naturally rise with them.

Closing Thoughts 💬

Thank you for reading to the end. Stay tuned for a special announcement coming up!

God Bless,

Neil,

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This newsletter is 100% FREE & is designed to help your thinking, not direct it. These newsletters shall NOT be construed as tax, legal, or financial advice and may be outdated or inaccurate; all decisions made as a result of this information are yours alone.

Trading/Liability: Neil McCoy-Ward operates/trades under a private Ltd company within the Isle of Man.