Your IMPORTANT Weekly Briefing: (17th October 2025)

The Neil McCoy-Ward Newsletter

October 17, 2025

Opening Note…

Welcome back to this week’s newsletter!

It’s been an interesting week for me during my UK trip as I’ve travelled around the Midlands through to the North of England. What really struck me is just how different Northern towns have now become to Cities further South.

As long as I can remember, it’s been more trendy to live further South, than in the North. Yet, I think that’s about to change in a big way… (actually I made a video about this 4-5 years ago), where I forecast that house price growth would be greater the further North you go from the midlands… that seems to have come true now.

London and the South has seen very slow growth in house prices in recent times, whereas the North, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland has seen incredible, almost explosive growth.

The reason I think we could see further growth in the North over the South is because of how many people I spoke to on this trip (retirees and families mainly) who had recently or currently planning to move North.

Their reasons differed as do all our reasons, but there were two distinct patterns:

  1. Crime, safety, rubbish & loss of culture in the major cities

  2. Wanting a better quality of life, and a return to the old Britain from 10 years ago…

It’s almost shocking when you consider that the decline has happened this fast - just in the last 10 years… (even less actually). Take the typical tourist for example, who comes to England expecting to see the picturesque towns, stone houses, thatched roofs, winding rivers & greenery… only to be shocked by the sheer degradation & crime on arrival into any major City.

Rather than beauty, they see graffiti & gang tags (sorry, I mean art installations). Rather than clean streets they see rubbish piling up and deteriorating infrastructure. Rather than British culture they experience just about anything but.

It’s a slow motion train wreck that many of us can see coming, but the majority simply can’t… they say “what train?” - They can’t even see the train, let alone realise they are walking along the track.

Now let's break down the latest...

Table of Contents

1. Weekly Spotlight

Trump, Putin, and the Tomahawk Dilemma

This week’s news about Ukraine feels like we’ve stepped back into the Cold War in some regards. President Zelensky is in Washington right now, hoping to convince President Trump to send Tomahawk missiles. These are the long-range missiles that can reach deep into Russia (although I doubt they will turn the tide of the war as Zelensky claims).

Just before Zelensky landed, Trump had a long phone call with Putin. Both called it “very productive,” and Trump said they’d agreed to meet in Hungary soon. That call caught Kyiv by surprise. Zelensky joked that Moscow always rushes to talk peace whenever it hears the word “Tomahawk.” You can see why. Those missiles can fly more than 1,500 miles and would put Moscow in the firing line.

It seems like there’s a great deal of uncertainty about when or if Trump will supply the missiles. At one point, he said “we’ll see,” and later hinted the U.S. might not have enough to spare. But the timing of his chat with Putin, right before seeing Zelensky, tells me that he has a strategy here.

We also sometimes have to think (what are deemed as) impolite thoughts… (or at least I do). In this case, I’m wondering if Trump is now considering the financial benefits of this war? America solved all their problems during WW2 and became a financial powerhouse that controlled most of the World’s Gold reserves. They did this by becoming a nation of production. If war ‘were’ indeed to break out on the European continent in the years to come, America could again solve all their debt based problems by again providing the ‘things’ that Europe needs.

I’m certainly NOT saying this is the case, just that I’m sure this has at least crossed his mind…

If Trump decides to arm Ukraine with Tomahawks, it would be the first time the U.S. has handed over weapons capable of striking so far inside Russian territory. That would definitely escalate the war. On the other hand, if he holds back, it might give Moscow more breathing room while peace talks take place in Hungary.

The danger of Tomahawk missiles was put best by former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev: He argued that once a Tomahawk is launched, it’s impossible to tell whether it carries a conventional or a nuclear warhead, and implied that any such move could provoke a nuclear response from Russia.

A worrying statement indeed; especially after Putin said almost these exact words, yet within a different context.

2. Quick Takes

Here are the top stories shaping the week:

  • DC and Hawaii Hit Hardest as Government Shutdown Drags Into Third Week: The federal shutdown has entered its 16th day, and Washington DC, is taking the biggest hit. A quarter of all jobs there are tied to the government, and with 900,000 workers furloughed and 700,000 still working unpaid, the capital’s economy is grinding to a halt. Hawaii comes next, with over 5% of jobs in federal roles and real estate making up almost a quarter of its economy. Mortgage delays and stalled park operations are starting to bite. New Mexico ranks third, heavily reliant on federal contracts and SNAP benefits that could soon dry up. The Congressional Budget Office reckons the shutdown is costing the US economy roughly $400 million a day. States like Maryland, Virginia, and Alaska are also hurting, while the Midwest is barely feeling it.

  • FBI Reports Surge In Espionage Arrests Targeting China, Russia, And Iran: FBI Director Kash Patel says espionage arrests are up nearly 50% this year, with China, Russia, and Iran topping the list. China alone saw more than a 50% spike in spy cases, Iran matched that, and Russia rose by a third. Recent arrests include State Department staff accused of passing defence data to China, a U.S. soldier charged with leaking secrets to Russia, and Iranian nationals tied to drone supplies for the IRGC. Cyber crime take-downs are also up, 52 arrests so far, plus a record $15 billion bitcoin seizure from a Cambodian scam ring tied to slave-labor compounds and global fraud networks. - I have to wonder if there is a surge due to these countries escalating espionage or if it’s because the previous administration was too relaxed on law and order.

  • Mexican Cartels Put Bounties On US Agents, DHS Warns: The Department of Homeland Security says Mexican cartels have issued cash bounties for attacks on US law enforcement, offering up to $50,000 per federal official. The cartels, using Chicago as a major hub, allegedly recruited street gangs and Antifa-linked groups to spy on and harass ICE and CBP officers. Rooftop “spotters” have been tracking agents during raids under Operation Midway Blitz. Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson have clashed with Washington over the crackdown, accusing Trump of turning the city into a “war zone.” Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem called it a coordinated “campaign of terror” against US officers. - It feels like a war no one is really talking about. We see Ukraine and the Middle East all the time, but there isn't too much coverage about the war on American soil.

  • UK Drops China Spy Case After Labour Fails To Call Beijing A Threat: It’s stated that China’s intelligence services hacked UK Government systems for more than a decade, stealing sensitive data and policy files. Yet the espionage case against two alleged British collaborators collapsed, because the Labour government never officially labelled China a national security threat. That technical omission meant prosecutors couldn’t present key evidence, enraging Conservatives who accuse Keir Starmer of being soft on Beijing while still backing China’s massive new London embassy. The hacks, reportedly stretching across “secret” and “official-sensitive” systems, gave China long-term access to government networks and a London data centre once tied to Beijing-linked firms. - Reading how the Chinese managed to hack the UK government makes me worry even more about when we introduce Digital IDs. How long before they are hacked? We also know WHY the current Government won’t label China in a negative light, it’s because we get so much of our GDP ‘from’ China. However, this is misleading, as we actually have a £40B? deficit on trade - per year!

  • India Agrees To Halt Russian Oil Imports After Trump Pressure: Donald Trump says India has agreed to stop buying Russian oil “within a short period,” after talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Washington. The move could hit Moscow’s funding hard. India’s oil imports from Russia jumped from $1 billion before the invasion to more than $50 billion last year, making it one of the Kremlin’s biggest lifelines. Trump has accused both India and China of bankrolling Putin’s war and recently slapped 50% tariffs on Indian goods to force the issue.

    Gold Mania Grips Australia As Prices Smash Records: Gold’s price is up over 50% in a year, and the frenzy has gone global. London’s Royal Mint can’t keep up with demand for coins, and in Sydney, queues outside ABC Bullion stretch down the road. Ordinary Aussies, retirees, and first-timers are piling in, calling gold the only “real money” left. Goldman Sachs just lifted its forecast to $4,900 an ounce by late 2026, while the current price sits around $4,040. Central banks, tariff wars, and geopolitical chaos are all fuelling the run. - I bet your glad you took my Gold & Silver courses now! I do hope you have done very well from the forecasts… of course, not forgetting the Patreon posts on Gold & Silver too. We’ve all seen very good growth this year again.

  • Fed Officials Warn AI Is Reshaping Jobs As Consumers Cool Off: Richmond Fed boss Thomas Barkin says shoppers are still spending but they are “not as flush” as they were in 2022, even as higher earners keep up the spending. He also pointed to a hiring squeeze and a surge in AI use across call centres and coding roles. Fed Governor Chris Waller also made the point that tech upheavals like this always kill some jobs but create others. Still, Stanford research shows employment down 13% in AI-exposed roles, with more layoffs expected next year as automation bites. AI adoption sits at about 9%, and the real economic payoff might not show up till late in the decade. - You have to think back to the industrial revolution, which wiped out entire trades before creating new ones. But this one will be worse. We have a culmination of various strands all coming together at the same time.

  • Pakistan Launches Strikes On Kabul As Border War With Taliban Escalates: Pakistan and Afghanistan have traded their deadliest fire in years, with Pakistani drones and fighter jets striking Kabul and the eastern province of Paktika. Explosions were heard in the Afghan capital, while border towns emptied as civilians fled the crossfire. The weekend clashes killed dozens on both sides, marking the worst violence since the Taliban’s takeover in 2021. Islamabad admits to “counter-terror” strikes, claiming Afghan soil is being used by the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) for attacks inside Pakistan, an accusation Kabul denies. The Taliban fired back across the 2,600km border but lacks any real air defences. A 48-hour ceasefire is now in place, under UN pressure to stop civilian deaths.

  • Major Media Walk Out Of Pentagon Over New Gag Policy: Reporters from nearly every major US outlet, CNN, Fox, NBC, the Times, the Post, and more, handed in their Pentagon badges after refusing to sign War Secretary Pete Hegseth’s new 21-page press policy. The document bans journalists from seeking or possessing classified or leaked material. The Pentagon Press Association called it a “dark day for press freedom,” while Hegseth mocked the exodus online with a wave emoji saying “Press Credentialing for Dummies” post. The only major network to sign the pledge was One America News.

NEIL’S TAKEAWAYS:

In the United States
It’s one of those weeks that feels like two realities are colliding. America just posted its biggest-ever September budget surplus, powered by record tariffs ($29.7B) and a sharp pullback in federal spending. However, the reality is that it’s mostly a calendar effect; much of the real spending was pushed to next month, which will mean October’s numbers are likely to be much, much worse.

Even more bad news came with yesterday’s regional bank meltdown. Shares of Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance both cratered into double digits after disclosing serious loan problems tied to possible fraudulent collateral. One had a $50 million charge-off. The other discovered fake title policies and drained collateral accounts. These aren’t “one-offs.” Remember, not 2 weeks ago, what we saw with Tricolour collapsing.

This is why I have been warning people that the next financial crisis has already started (which many in the comments mocked me for), yet they simply don’t understand how this works. Think of a dam, holding back the water. It’s solid, it’s integral. There are no problems. But one day, a man with a sledgehammer comes by and decides to hit the dam with all his strength, just once though, mind you… what happens? Nothing. Nothing at all. The next day he returns and hits it again, does it explode and flood the villages below? No. But after multiple days of him hitting it, eventually cracks begin to show. Then one day, the fracture becomes so severe that a weak point shows and the dam bursts. It happens in one big event, (obviously counterintuitive to the way people think it happens).

So what stage are we at? Multiple hits; a structural weakness - but not yet enough to cause a major crack. And like the camel, where you may ask: “which straw is it that breaks the back?” The answer is, all of them. Not the last one added.

At the same time, funding stress is back. Stocks tanked, bonds rallied, gold surged, and crypto sold off. The market’s flight to safety is well and truly underway.

Then came the Philly Fed survey, which I think painted a pretty confusing picture; the headline number plunged back into contraction at -12.8, even as forward-looking indicators pointed to optimism about growth and lower inflation ahead. Businesses are tightening now yet betting on better conditions six months from today. That gap between current pain and future hope is exactly where volatility thrives.

So yes, September’s surplus is nice. But when $1.22 trillion in annual interest payments is eating 23 cents out of every tax dollar, and when liquidity stress is quietly rising, this “good news” feels like a brief calm before a harder storm.

Prepare: Stay nimble. Watch the SOFR, gold, and definitely check your exposure to regional bank balance sheets.

Across Europe
This week, two major developments pointed in the same direction. Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz called for the creation of a unified European capital market, backed by Euronext and the European Investment Bank.

The goal is to end the continent’s dependence on U.S. capital flows by consolidating Europe’s fragmented financial ecosystem, where more than 500 exchanges and trading venues currently operate under different rules. At the same time, the European Commission announced a sweeping defence integration plan, including new drone-defence systems, Eastern border shields, and joint air and space security projects set to deploy by 2026–2028. I can clearly see how this is pushing for a centralised Europe. For decades, Europe has been a consumer of security and capital. Now, it’s trying to become a producer of both.

Prepare: Watch this space closely. Many citizens in the EU are already considering whether the EU is right for them and their country, and this will undoubtedly fuel the debate (& outflows).


On the Global Stage

The IMF just upgraded Asia’s growth outlook, surprising markets with stronger-than-expected momentum from India and Southeast Asia. But the optimism comes with a warning: renewed U.S.–China trade tensions could erase those gains just as quickly. Beijing’s exporters are already retreating from the U.S. market, with many Chinese firms calling America “too unpredictable to rely upon.”

Meanwhile, President Trump’s latest threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods caused futures to fall, and major exporters from across Asia started drawing up contingency plans.

Then came China’s rare earth export controls, this was supposed to be China’s flex of power, but one that’s quickly backfired. Japan’s Finance Minister called for the G7 to “unite and respond” to Beijing’s chokehold, while Germany and Australia signalled a coordinated counterstrategy on critical minerals. Even Washington had the Pentagon begin a new buying spree to secure rare earths for the defence industry, sending mining stocks vertical.

Beijing insists its actions are being ‘distorted’ by the West, but China’s aggressive play to weaponise minerals has done what few thought possible: it’s unifying the world against China. As one Bloomberg analyst put it, “This marks a reversal from six months ago when China looked poised to capitalise on Trump’s disruption. Now it’s cornered.”

Prepare: Global power was typically measured by GDP. But in recent years, it’s showing up as the resources a nation has and the alliances that form around them. The nations securing supply chains today, will control the markets tomorrow.

3. Opportunity Of The Week…

This week, it feels like world tension has started rising again, especially with the chance that Tomahawk missiles could ignite a major war. War means that all essential resources go towards the ‘positive outcome of that war’. This means that power outages could be a real thing, and without power, life becomes very difficult indeed.

I remember as a kid that power outages were a common occurrence in our household. My Father would light candles and my Mother would get the wool blankets out. Power outages are no fun; especially in Winter. Just ask the people of Ukraine right now.

Amd although I could make a huge list for you of supplies to stock, I want to recommend just two items today that I always keep close by for emergencies. There are plenty of tools worth having, but these two are at the top of my survival list. Plus, even if you don’t need them for an apocalypse, they are not only very low cost, but also extremely handy for hiking, travelling and keeping in your car during Winter.

Emergency Sleeping Bag: LINK

Pure Water Straw: LINK

4. Chart Of The Week: Nvidia Now Worth More Than Every Major US And Canadian Bank Combined

Nvidia’s market cap has now blown past the combined value of Wall Street’s biggest names: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and even Canada’s top banks. The chipmaker, once under $1 trillion just a few years ago, now towers over the entire North American banking sector. It’s the clearest sign yet of how AI fever has eclipsed old finance - as investors chase compute power over cash flow. But the hype has analysts twitchy: Deutsche Bank warns Nvidia’s surge is “uncharted territory,” and Google searches for “AI bubble” just hit record highs. Still, money keeps pouring in.

5. Market Overview

The U.S. markets saw a sharp reversal late in the week after earlier gains due to trade tensions and the credit stresses from banks. The decline even spread to tech and growth, dragging the Nasdaq and S&P 500 lower. In the U.K., the FTSE 100 experienced one of its worst days since April, dropping ~1.5 %, led by a collapse in banking and asset management names. Some cushioning came from strength in sectors such as mining, pharma and healthcare, but it wasn’t enough to offset the drag. In Canada, TSX futures fell ~0.9 % Friday, with the financial sector taking a hit from US banking pressure. Still, the index is slated for modest full-week gains, largely by a surge in the materials sector powered by gold’s rally. Australia’s ASX 200 underperformed, slipping ~0.8 % as weakness in energy, materials, and resource names grew.

🇺🇸 United States – S&P 500

  • High: 6,722.18

  • Low: 6,558.31

🇬🇧 UK - FTSE 100

  • High: 9,468.85

  • Low: 9,277.07

🇨🇦 Canada – TSX Composite

  • High: 30,797.78

  • Low: 30,070.25

🇦🇺 Australia – ASX 200

  • High: 9,097.10

  • Low: 8,847.90

Cryptocurrency:

  • Bitcoin (BTC): -13.3%

  • Ethereum (ETH): -12.9%

  • Tether (USDT): 0.0%

  • BNB (BNB): -16.6%

  • XRP (XRP): -18.8%

  • Solana (SOL): -18.3%

  • USDC (USDC): 0.0%

  • Lido Staked Ether (STETH): -12.9%

  • TRON (TRX): -7.7%

  • Dogecoin (DOGE): -27.1%

This is (possibly) the decline I alluded to in my last newsletter. We will need to await more trade data yet to see if the bear market has indeed begun. OR, if this is simply a ‘instability / rush towards safety’ market correction.

Metals Market:

Gold Silver Ratio: 80.75 (This still favours Silver and the ratio has stabilised a lot this week; however, the prices for both assets are climbing.)

Gold & Silver:

  • Gold: reached a record intraday high near $4,380 per ounce this week.

  • Silver: Had a high of around $55.50 per ounce during the week and has drifted back and forth between $51 and $54.

Neil’s Investor Takeaways:

It’s been one of those weeks, from missiles to Europe pushing for its own defence market, to cracks showing up again in U.S. regional banks.

I’m getting the sense we’re heading into a phase where capital starts hiding in hard assets, metals, energy, maybe even certain defence names, while riskier plays start crashing. Opportunity is coming to get stocks while they are cheap…

If you want the deeper dive, including the stocks I watch. You can check out my Patreon. This is also where I break down macroeconomics that’s not seen on my YouTube channel. With an exclusive 1-hour-long video each month on all things macro. LINK

6. Faith & Success

“Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own.” - Matthew 6:34

A vert apt verse for today. As concerns heighten for Europeans, other nations are moving towards peaceful transitions.

I try not to worry about most things. I live each day as it comes. I simply set up back up plans, should things go bad. I learned this lesson the hard way after being a soldier. When you’ve experienced truly harsh conditions, and your plans go wrong, pushing you beyond limit of what you think you can handle, it teaches you to think differently, to prepare, to put systems in place, to make things easier for the future. But also you learn that you can’t control outcomes, there’s too many variables.

Sometimes you just have to go with the flow.

Thanks for reading this week’s newsletter. Have an amazing weekend.

See you next time,

God Bless,

Neil,

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DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is 100% FREE & is designed to help your thinking, not direct it. These newsletters shall NOT be construed as tax, legal, or financial advice and may be outdated or inaccurate; all decisions made as a result of this information are yours alone.

Trading/Liability: Neil McCoy-Ward operates/trades under a private Ltd company within the Isle of Man.