Your IMPORTANT Weekly Briefing: (17th April 2026)

The Neil McCoy-Ward Newsletter

April 17, 2026

Opening Note…

Hi, and welcome back again this week.

I’m pleased to announce that we’ve finally we’ve had some good news today! As Iran declared the strait of Hormuz will be open to commercial vessels until the end of the ceasefire period. This is great news for the World as it will give a few more days of breathing room for energy supplies.

And not only this, it will also give some much needed relief for fertiliser and other critical components that we so desperately need (globally speaking).

Now currently, I’m travelling the US West Coast for business… so no walk & talk video today/this weekend.

Ok, let's break down the latest...

Table of Contents

1. Weekly Spotlight

The IMF's Warning

The IMF dropped its World Economic Outlook this week. I know, not exactly the most exciting thing of the year, but bear with me, because what's inside - is genuinely alarming.

Six months ago, the global economy was doing surprisingly well. Growth was heading for 3.4% this year, inflation was cooling down, and the AI boom was adding serious gains.

The IMF was even about to upgrade their forecasts. Then February 28th happened, the US and Israel struck Iran, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, and everything went in the other direction, fast.

The IMF's best case now is that global growth of 3.1% with inflation rising to 4.4%. And here's the thing about that "best case"… it assumes the war will be short-lived and oil averages $82 a barrel for the year. Back in January they were forecasting $62. This is still of course possible, especially with today’s announcements. But it’s a stretch; mainly because a lot of the damage is already done.

If oil stays where it is, growth drops to 2.5%. And in the worst case scenario, where disruptions stretch into 2027, we're looking at 2% global growth (according to them), although I’m less optimistic.

The IMF actually used the phrase "close call for a global recession." Growth has only fallen below 2% four times since 1980. Those four times were: the 1980s debt crisis, the Gulf War shock, 2008, and COVID. That's the list we're now potentially joining.

The ceasefire on April 7th, the one that sent markets surging and oil crashing 16% in a day, doesn't actually fix the supply problem. The IMF chief economist said it himself: even if the war stopped tonight and the Strait reopened tomorrow morning (which has now ‘kind of’ happened), the world would still face an oil shortfall for the whole of 2026. The damage is already done.

You can't get back the weeks when energy storage should have been refilling. Europe's gas storage is at 28% right now (the normal level for this time of year is 33-35%). Germany and France are both sitting at 22%. And Qatar, one of Europe's biggest LNG suppliers, had its largest facility knocked out by an Iranian drone in March. With a repair timeline of up to five years.

So yes, the ceasefire was better than the alternative, but don't mistake it for a solution.

And there’s one more thing worth watching too… Bessent suggested this week that tariffs could be coming back as early as July. If that happens, we'd be looking at a third major economic shock in the space of eighteen months, landing on an economy that's already dealing with an energy price surge and slowing growth. Even the IMF flagged this specifically as something that could push their forecast numbers lower still.

2. Quick Takes

Here are the other top stories shaping the week:

  • Europe's Airlines Are Running Out Of Jet Fuel And Cancelling Flights

    Lufthansa is shutting down its entire 27-plane regional airline and pulling six more jets from service, while KLM has axed 160 flights, both blaming soaring fuel costs from the Iran war. European jet fuel is up 120% since the conflict began, and the IEA says Europe has roughly six weeks of supply left, with the EU importing 75% from the Middle East.

  • Fire At Australia's Geelong Refinery Hits A Country With Almost No Refining Left

    There has been a fire at Viva Energy's Geelong refinery, one of only two left in Australia. The plant covers 10-12% of Australia's fuel supply, and with the Hormuz blockade already disrupting imports, the country had no buffer to absorb this. No repair timeline has been given either. - Australia spent years closing refineries for green energy targets and is now paying for it. For my Australian friends, you can watch my full video on that here: link

  • The IMF Says Australia Is Heading For One Of The Worst Inflation Rates In The Developed World

    The IMF is forecasting Australian inflation at 4% this year, higher than the US, UK, Germany, and Japan, with growth flat and falling further in 2027. The Iran war reversed what had been an expected upgrade to Australia's outlook, and economists warn the government's fuel excise cuts risk turning a price spike into a lasting inflation problem.

  • Britain's Is Dismantling Net Zero To Keep The Lights On

    Rachel Reeves has scrapped a £1 billion carbon tax on fossil fuels and is pushing to fast-track North Sea drilling, as household energy bills are forecast to hit £2,000 by year end. She is now in open tension with Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, who has called North Sea expansion "climate vandalism." A 2025 ONS report found 30% of UK heavy industry closed between 2022 and 2025 due to high energy costs.

  • 60% Of The US Is In Drought Just As Farmers Start Planting

    Sixty percent of the US is now in drought as the spring planting season begins, with severe conditions hitting southern crops and Great Plains wheat farmers deciding whether to cut their losses and replant. The cattle herd is already at its lowest since the 1950s, and shrinking snowpack in the west is threatening irrigation supplies. Food prices were already climbing and now a drought across the breadbasket on top of everything else is going to hurt.

  • The Gulf War's Hidden Victim: The Chemical That Makes Everything Else

    Sulfuric acid, used in fertilizers, batteries, copper and lithium mining, cars, and construction, is heading for a serious shortage. About a third of global supply comes from Gulf refining, now disrupted, and prices in China are up 90% since the conflict began, past the highs seen after the Russia/Ukraine war. China is also suspending sulfur exports from May. This one touches food, metals, and anything built with copper or lithium, which is basically everything.

  • India's Central Bank Takes Oil Refiners Out Of The Dollar Market

    India told its state oil companies, covering half the country's refining capacity, to stop buying dollars on the open market and use a government credit line instead. The rupee hit a record low past 95 to the dollar in March, and the move appears to be working, with the currency recovering about 2%.

  • Germany's AfD Pulls 4 Points Ahead Of CDU In New Poll

    Germany's AfD has hit 27% in the latest YouGov poll, four points clear of the CDU at 23%, its lowest since 2021. Nearly 80% of Germans are unhappy with Chancellor Merz's government, up from 55% ten months ago. The CDU has vowed never to govern with the AfD, but the numbers are making that position harder to hold.

  • Anthropic's New AI Is So Powerful Banks And Finance Ministers Are Worried

    Anthropic is expanding access to Mythos, its most powerful AI model, to UK banks within the week. The concern is that it can find and exploit software flaws better than almost any human, and Anthropic itself has warned the fallout "could be severe." Finance ministers at the IMF meetings are treating it as a major agenda item, and regulators admit there is no governance framework in place. The company that built it is warning the world it might be too dangerous, but banks are queuing up to use it anyway.

  • The White House Just Ordered Federal Agencies To Use The AI It Called Too Dangerous To Release

    Months after the Pentagon labelled Anthropic a supply-chain risk, the White House has directed federal agencies to use Mythos to hunt for vulnerabilities in government networks. In testing, it found and exploited thousands of unknown security flaws faster than top human hackers. The Pentagon blacklist still stands and the lawsuit is still active. Three months ago, the government threatened to ban Anthropic. Now it's using their most dangerous AI to defend its own networks.

NEIL’S TAKEAWAYS:

In the United States
Americans have never felt worse about the economy, at least not in the 74 years they have been measuring it. The University of Michigan confidence index hit 47.6 this month, the lowest reading ever recorded!

To put that into context, it was worse than the 2008 financial crisis, worse than COVID, and worse than the peak of Biden-era inflation in 2022. People are worried, and that worry is spreading across every age group, every income level, and every political party.

But the headline number is only half the picture. Wealthier households, the ones with investments and property, are still spending. They feel the pinch but they can absorb it.

It’s the middle and lower income households that are really struggling. They are going to the shops more often but buying less each time. That gap between how the ‘rich’ and ‘everyone else’ are experiencing this economy is getting wider, and I predict that it will start showing up in company results over the next few months.

This is something I will be going much deeper on in an upcoming Patreon post, so keep an eye out for that. If you are not yet a member, you can join here

One thing worth mentioning, nearly all of the survey responses came in before the ceasefire was announced on April 7th plus the announcement today, so the number may improve a little when the final data lands.

Prepare: Watch what happens to shops, restaurants, travel companies, and anything else that relies on ordinary people spending money. Businesses that sell to wealthier customers, or that have the power to raise their prices without losing customers, will do better. The ones that depend on everyone else are the ones to be careful with.

Across Europe:
Out of every major economy being hit by the energy shock from the Iran war, the UK is taking the biggest beating. The OECD, which is one of the world's leading economic research bodies, cut its forecast for UK growth this year from 1.2% down to just 0.7%, and at the same time raised its inflation forecast from 2.5% to 4.0%.

What they don’t ever say is that equates to a 3.3% LOSS. 4% inflation (negative) (+) 0.7% growth (positive) = -3.3% - that’s a staggering loss in just a 12 month period for a major economy.

Additionally, slow growth and rising prices at the same time is called stagflation, and it is one of the hardest situations for any government or central bank to deal with because the usual fixes pull in opposite directions. In other words, it’s very difficult to get out of…

The reason the UK is hurting more than most others comes down to gas. Nearly three quarters of British homes are heated by natural gas, far more than the rest of Europe. Right now households are shielded by the government's energy price cap, but that protection runs out in July.

And when it does, the average energy bill is expected to jump by around £288 a year. And that is before the knock-on effects push up the price of food, transport, and other everyday costs. To put it bluntly, it’s going to be brutal.

Prepare: Be very careful with UK businesses that sell to everyday consumers, especially anything linked to energy or things people can cut back on easily. July is a date to watch for when bills go up. Companies that make things people need, or that can pass higher costs on to customers, are in a stronger position. Anything reliant on interest rate cuts is a risk right now.

On the Global Stage:
Something is happening in markets that most have not picked up on yet. When central banks don’t know whether to put rates up or keep them steady, and when governments are already too deep in debt to spend their way out of problems, experienced investors tend to move their money into things that hold real, physical value.

Gold and silver have already started moving higher. Currencies from countries that export oil and other commodities are holding their ground while almost everything else loses value.

This is where large institutions are preparing for things to get worse, and most everyday investors are not paying attention yet. I have been talking about gold and silver for a while now, and everything happening right now is the exact reason why.

Prepare: If you have not thought about owning some gold, silver, or investments linked to commodities, now is worth considering. Keep some cash to one side as well. The people who position themselves before something becomes front page news are the ones who benefit most. That window does not stay open for long.

I’ve mentioned Monetary Metals a few times before here, but if you haven’t looked into them, it might be worth doing that. For your own due diligence and simply to see what they offer - because it is very different and unique as a concept. Here’s a link if you want to know more: LINK

3. Chart Of The Week

The US Produces More Natural Gas Than Iran And China Combined

The US pumped out 37,751 billion cubic feet of natural gas in 2024, accounting for a full quarter of everything the world produces, more than Russia, Iran, and China combined.

That dominance came from the shale revolution, which tripled US output since 2005 by unlocking formations that were previously uneconomical to drill. Russia is the only country in the same conversation at 22,672 billion cubic feet, and the gap between those two alone is bigger than what most top-ten producers make in total.

After the top four, production falls off a cliff, with Canada and Qatar leading a distant second tier at around 6,000-7,000 billion cubic feet. With the Strait of Hormuz disrupted, Qatar's Ras Laffan facility knocked out, and global markets scrambling for reliable supply, the world is leaning harder than ever on large, stable producers. There is really only one at that scale.

4. Market Overview

S&P 500 (U.S.)
Had a solid week overall. Markets bounced back after early turbulence, helped along by optimism around a potential US-Iran truce. Tech and growth stocks did most of the heavy lifting.

FTSE 100 (UK)
Crept slightly higher. Concerns around trade and AI disruption kept financials under pressure, but the index held its ground and eked out modest gains.

S&P/TSX Composite (Canada)
Finished the week in positive territory. Energy and materials led the way, with oil prices getting a lift from global tensions, while utilities and industrials also contributed.

ASX 200 (Australia)
Flat. Despite strength in US markets, the index couldn't build on recent gains or push toward the 9,000 mark, drifting sideways with no clear sector driving things forward.

🇺🇸 United States – S&P 500

  • High: 7,138.99

  • Low: 6,793.04

🇬🇧 UK - FTSE 100

  • High: 10,667.63

  • Low: 10,529.63

🇨🇦 Canada – TSX Composite

  • High: 34,430.76

  • Low: 33,568.48

🇦🇺 Australia – ASX 200

  • High: 9,017.20

  • Low: 8,908.90

Cryptocurrency:

  • Bitcoin (BTC): 5.2%

  • Ethereum (ETH): 7.2%

  • Tether (USDT): 0.0%

  • XRP (XRP): 8.2%

  • BNB (BNB): 5.5%

  • USDC (USDC): 0.0%

  • Solana (SOL): 5.9%

  • TRON (TRX): 1.4%

  • Figure Heloc (FIGR_HELOC): 0.0%

  • Dogecoin (DOGE): 7.5%

Metals Market:

Gold–Silver Ratio: ~61:1, The ratio has fallen this week due to Silver rising from falling oil prices from the shaky US-Iran ceasefire and strong industrial demand in solar and EVs, while gold stayed mostly flat as it's less volatile.

Gold & Silver:

  • Gold: Rose 1.76% with a Week High: $4,889 & Week Low: $4,645

  • Silver: Rose 6.97% with a Week High: $82.48 & Week Low: $72.85

5. Faith & Success

❝

“He stilled the storm to a whisper; the waves of the sea were hushed.”

— Psalm 107:29

This was the verse that came to my mind today when I read the news of the strait being opened.

Because there are just times in life when everything feels uncertain and we think to ourselves “how can this possibly get worse?” and yet, then it does! Like what happened to Australia this week with those 2 ‘coincidences’ (and yes I’m being sarcastic here) - I don’t for a minute think they were just coincidences! Events that just happened to knock out their refinery AND fertiliser plant both at the same time… During a period of shortages already… Hmm…

Because overall, this last month has been CRAZY, the news cycle has been constant despair and it never seemed to let up.

And yet… and yet… today we’ve just had a respite. A great and positive announcement that will be incredibly good and positive for the World. And it reminds us that just when you think this isn’t going to turn around - it does.

Now that’s not to say that it will stay open. It could close again very quickly of course. But regardless, the news right now is positive.

So this verse came to me a reminder that not every storm lasts. What feels intense and overwhelming in one moment can quiet down in the next.

I live on the Isle Of Man, where our Spring and Summers are glorious, just breath taking and incredible. Yet, what most people don’t know is that the Winters are absolutely shocking, to the point of almost being unbearable for some people.

I remember this one storm at the castle last year that was so bad that I couldn’t sleep for worry (we were halfway through repairing the roof AND we had a dead tree that was swaying over the road!)

This storm just went on and on and it felt like it would never end! And then, to make matters worse - I heard this almighty ‘CRASH’ which ensured I wasn’t going to sleep!

But I couldn’t go out to check, because A: it wouldn’t have made any difference anyway as there was no rescue party coming out until the storm was over, and B: the wind, rain and lightning were so fierce that it was too dangerous with the trees snapping and large branches falling constantly.

The next day when I assessed the damage, I had lost 3 mature trees. I was devastated. One of those trees was a 170 year old magnolia cherry blossom. It was planted when the castle was first built. The other 2 were just as beautiful and important.

But, after a few days - I got over it.

The storm, which felt like it was never going to end - did end, with terrible consequences. But it did end.

In the place of those trees, I planted new life. A new cherry, a new beech, a new pine. And the old trees will become furniture in the castle after the wood has had time to dry out after being slabbed.

So in life, it’s easy to assume that turbulence is permanent. But more often than not, it’s only temporary. The key is being able to KNOW in the middle of the storm, that “this too shall pass”.

This week is a reminder to stay grounded, both when things are uncertain and when they begin to calm. Because just like the storm, circumstances rise and fall. And those who remain steady through both are the ones who will maintain their peace.

I’ve got another flight to catch now so I’ll see you again next week!

Take care, and God Bless.

Neil,

Digital Income Mastery: LINK

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Trading/Liability: Neil McCoy-Ward operates/trades under a private Ltd company within the Isle of Man.