Your IMPORTANT Weekly Briefing: (15th May 2026)

The Neil McCoy-Ward Newsletter

May 15, 2026

Opening Note…

It feels great to be back on the island this week (Isle Of Man)… there are certain places in the World (geographically) that bring me great peace and leave me feeling calm and grounded…

Groudle Glen, Isle Of Man - Neil McCoy-Ward

The island does this for me because everyone is very relaxed, no one even cares about politics or what’s going on in Iran, etc… in fact, most people are not even interested.

Everyone’s focus right now is: Spring is here! The sun is out! What shall we do this weekend, the beach or the mountains?

This is how things should be, getting back to the simple joys of life… but we tend to forget because we are sprinting so fast each day, just trying to keep up.

If you’re feeling tired right now, can you take the weekend off?

Table of Contents

1. Weekly Spotlight

The Real Reason Trump Went to Beijing

Trump flew to Beijing this week for the first time since 2017. The headlines were all about Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and Taiwan.

Would Xi help pressure Tehran? Would Trump trade away decades-old US language on Taiwanese independence?

The summit ended today with warm handshakes and a banquet…

But let's take a look at who came with Trump…

Jensen Huang of Nvidia. Tim Cook of Apple. Elon Musk of Tesla. That's the entire AI, chip, and EV supply chain showing up on Xi's doorstep at the same time. If this trip was really about Iran or Taiwan, why does Trump need the world's most valuable chip company in the room? He doesn't.

They came because this was about something the US economy cannot function without: rare earth elements and the materials that go into every advanced chip, every EV battery, every data centre. And China controls roughly 90% of global refined rare earth processing.

After the November 2025 US-China trade deal, China lifted export restrictions on most critical minerals. But one stayed restricted: indium. And indium just happens to be a key input for data centre semiconductors. The entire AI build-out the US is betting trillions of dollars on runs through materials China can choke off at any moment.

That's the leverage Xi was sitting on this week…

Now this is where I think most people are reading the summit completely wrong. My read is that the absence of an announcement IS the signal. If an understanding was reached (the US eases export licences, China keeps the materials flowing), neither side would want it in a press release. Trump's base wouldn't tolerate softening tech controls. Xi's hardliners wouldn't tolerate enabling US military hardware. So if there's a deal, it lives in the silence.

And guess what dropped within hours of the summit ending?

The US Commerce Department had approved export licences for Nvidia's H200 AI chips (their second-most powerful processor) to be sold to Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, and JD.com. Basically every major Chinese tech firm. Each buyer cleared for up to 75,000 chips.

I also found this interesting... When CNBC asked Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about it live on air, his response was: "This is news to me."

The Treasury Secretary, who flew to Beijing with the President, claims he had no idea his own government had just approved one of the biggest chip export decisions of the year. Either he's not being honest, or this was deliberately routed around him so the administration can plausibly say "we didn't really mean to soften controls." Either way, it's the "deals get done in the silence" pattern playing out in real time.

The summit produced a fluffy joint statement about "a constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability" (the actual words). Iran and Taiwan became the news story because they're safe ground. Meanwhile the actual deal of the trip was getting approved through Commerce Department licensing.

The trade isn't fully done yet though, so here's what to watch:

First, the chip approvals dropped, but shipments haven't started. Watch whether they actually move, or whether China hawks in Congress block them.

Second, the rare earth flows from China are reportedly still lagging. The US delivered first, China hasn't fully delivered back. Watch the rare earth stocks (MP Materials, Lynas, USA Rare Earth). If they sell off, you'll know materials are flowing again.

Third, watch what Trump does NOT say about Taiwan over the coming months. Xi reportedly told him at the summit that Taiwan is "the most important issue in China-US relations" and warned it could lead to "clashes and even conflicts."

2. Quick Takes

Here are the other top stories shaping the week:

  • China Just Ordered 200 Boeings (And That's All The MSM Wants To Talk About)

    The big "deliverable" from Trump's Beijing trip is a Chinese order for 200 Boeing jets, and it's dominating every front page. A plane order is a safe, photogenic headline that lets both sides claim a win without anyone having to explain what was actually agreed on rare earths, or indium

  • Putin Is Heading To China Right As Trump Lands In Beijing

    The Kremlin announced Thursday that preparations for Putin's China visit are complete and the trip will happen "very soon", timed precisely as Trump began his three-day state visit in Beijing. Putin has already hinted the trip will produce a "serious and very substantial step" in oil and gas cooperation

  • The UAE Is Racing To Build A Pipeline That Sidesteps Hormuz Entirely

    Abu Dhabi has ordered ADNOC to fast-track the West-East Pipeline, doubling UAE oil export capacity through Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman by 2027 and bypassing the blocked Strait of Hormuz. Only the UAE and Saudi Arabia have pipelines that skip Hormuz, while Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar and Bahrain remain entirely dependent on it

  • Saudi Arabia Is Quietly Trying To Cut Its Own Peace Deal With Iran

    Riyadh is considering a regional non-aggression pact with Iran modelled on the Cold War-era Helsinki Process, suggesting Gulf states want their own arrangement separate from Washington. Fresh revelations show the UAE, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia all directly attacked Iranian targets during Trump's Operation Epic Fury, kept under wraps for weeks

  • Britain's Economy Surprised Everyone By Growing 0.3% As The Iran War Began (But Don’t Be Fooled)

    UK GDP rose 0.3% in March and 0.6% across Q1, beating expectations as services, construction, and manufacturing all expanded. But economists are calling it the high point for the year, with the Iran war already disrupting the 20% of global oil and gas that flows through Hormuz. But don’t be fooled by this… it really doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things… The UK is still on a downward trajectory economically.

  • Wes Streeting Has Quit The Cabinet And Starmer's Job Looks Shaky

    Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigned on May 14th, accusing PM Keir Starmer of "drift" and saying it's clear he won't lead Labour into the next election. With 87 MPs already calling for Starmer to go and Angela Rayner now cleared of tax allegations, a formal challenge needs just 81 MPs to trigger.

  • Traders Are Now Pricing In A 30% Chance The Fed HIKES Rates This Year

    Futures markets are pricing in a 30% chance that the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise interest rates by year-end, a complete reversal from the cuts everyone expected just months ago. The Iran war has sent oil prices climbing, inflation is creeping back, and the Fed's window to ease is closing fast. Mortgages, credit cards, business loans, everything reprices off this

  • Trump Wants To Suspend The Federal Gas Tax As Prices Hit $4.52

    Trump told CBS News on Monday he wants the federal gas tax suspended "for a period of time", a sharp reversal from the White House line just a week earlier. A suspension would only knock 18 cents off. The catch is the President can't actually do it, only Congress can, and the suspension would cost the federal government around $500 million a week in lost road funding

  • Texas Is Suing Netflix For Spying On Kids And Adults

    Texas AG Ken Paxton has sued Netflix for allegedly building a "surveillance program" that tracked billions of user behaviours, including children's profiles, then sold the data to brokers like Experian and ad-tech firms like Google. Netflix's revenue ballooned from $15 billion to over $50 billion between 2018 and 2026

  • The UK Just Opened A Nine-Month Antitrust Probe Into Microsoft

    Britain's Competition and Markets Authority has launched a formal investigation into Microsoft's business software empire, examining whether bundling, default settings, and limited interoperability are locking UK customers in and shutting AI rivals out. A decision on formal designation is due by February 2027. Microsoft shares actually rose 1% on the news, suggesting markets aren't worried yet

NEIL’S TAKEAWAYS:

In the United States
The inflation data this week was ugly. April's CPI came in at 3.8% annually, the highest since May 2023, with gasoline up 28.4% over the year due to the Iran war. For the first time since April 2023, wages are no longer officially keeping up with prices

Wednesday's Producer Price Index was even worse. PPI jumped 1.4% in April, almost three times what economists expected, with the annual rate now at 6%

PPI measures what businesses are paying before products reach you, so when it spikes like this, those costs almost always end up at the till in the months ahead

Retail sales on Thursday showed the cracks. Headline sales rose 0.5%, but look at where the money went. Gas stations were up 2.8% because people had no choice. Furniture dropped 2%, department stores fell 3.2%, clothing was down 1.5%

Whirlpool's CFO said appliance demand has hit recession-level lows we have not seen since the Great Financial Crisis. People are paying more for fuel and food, and pulling back on everything else

And yet markets hit fresh record highs this week, with the S&P 500 closing above 7,400 on Monday. JPMorgan is calling this an "AI supercycle." But David Einhorn warned at the Sohn Conference that valuations are "very, very pricey," with the Shiller P/E now near dot-com bubble peaks

Prepare: This is the gap to watch. The real economy is squeezed while markets party on the AI trade. That cannot stay disconnected forever. Look at companies with real earnings, real cash flow, and pricing power. Be cautious on consumer discretionary names tied to big-ticket purchases like furniture, appliances, and autos. And keep some dry powder

Across Europe:
The biggest story in Europe this week was the UK political crisis. After Labour got hammered in local elections the bond market reaction was brutal. The 30-year gilt yield touched 5.81% on Tuesday, the highest since 1998, and the 10-year pushed past 5.1%

This means investors are demanding a much higher return to lend to the UK government because they fear a new Labour leader will spend and borrow far more. NatWest and Lloyds dropped at least 3% as traders priced in the risk of higher bank taxes under a new PM

Over in the eurozone, Q1 GDP came in at just 0.1%, the weakest quarter since mid-2025. France stalled at 0%, Italy managed 0.2%, Germany surprised with 0.3%, Spain led at 0.6%. Annual growth slowed to 0.8% from 1.3%

Prepare: Be cautious on UK assets while the political situation is unresolved, especially UK banks and domestically focused mid-caps. Sterling could weaken further. On the continent, stick with companies that have pricing power, low energy intensity, and strong balance sheets. Be careful with European industrials, they will get squeezed from both sides by weak demand and high input costs. Defence, infrastructure, and quality names with steady earnings are the safer plays

On the Global Stage:
China kicked off the week with inflation data that surprised everyone. April CPI rose 1.2% year-on-year, but producer prices jumped 2.8%, the highest since July 2022.

This ends China's longest deflationary streak in decades. The problem is, this is the wrong kind of inflation. It's being driven by the Iran war pushing up commodity costs, not by a recovery in domestic demand. Nomura warned this kind of supply-side reflation squeezes company margins and actually weakens consumer spending

India had a much rougher week. CPI rose to 3.48% in April, the highest in four months, with food inflation hitting 4.20%. Moody's flagged India as "particularly vulnerable" to high oil prices because it imports almost all its crude

With oil above $100, India's import bill has exploded, dollars are flooding out, and the rupee has crashed to record lows against the dollar

What India did next surprised me. Modi made a rare weekend appeal asking Indians to stop buying gold and skip foreign travel to support the currency. Then India more than doubled import tariffs on gold and silver to 15% and 6%

And this week, the government went further, capping how much gold individual exporters can bring in

India is panicking about capital flight. Gold is the country's second biggest import after oil, and with the rupee collapsing, Indians have been pouring money into gold and gold ETFs to protect their savings. UBS expects Indian gold imports to fall 20-25% this year because of these new rules

History suggests this could go a few ways. When governments try to suppress access to gold, demand often does not disappear, it just moves underground. Smuggling tends to pick up. And in some emerging markets, we have seen capital start flowing into alternatives like crypto when traditional routes get blocked. Whether India follows that pattern remains to be seen, but it is something worth watching

Prepare: Watch oil. As long as it stays above $100, emerging market currencies will keep cracking, and more countries will follow India in restricting capital outflows. For investors, this is bullish for physical gold and silver held outside restricted jurisdictions, since when governments make access harder, the metal itself becomes more valuable. Be cautious on emerging market debt and currencies. And keep an eye on bitcoin and stablecoins, history shows they tend to surge when capital controls tighten in big economies

If you like this kind of commentary - then you’ll love the private finance and investing community over on Patreon, check it out here: LINK

3. Chart Of The Week

India Has Overtaken France, Japan, And Almost Germany In A Decade

India's economy has expanded 83% since 2016 to nearly catch Germany and Japan in the global rankings, while Russia more than doubled in size to $2.7 trillion despite sanctions, and Mexico jumped ahead of Spain

The US still leads at $32.4 trillion and China crossed $20 trillion, but the real shock is Japan, the only G20 economy to actually shrink over the decade, contracting 14% as its population fell by 5 million and government debt blew past 200% of GDP. The UK grew 57% to $4.3 trillion after leaving the EU in 2020

The map of economic power looks very different than it did ten years ago, and the trend lines suggest the next decade will reshuffle things even more

4. Market Overview

S&P 500 (U.S.)
Up on the week, with tech doing the heavy lifting again. Cisco ripped after lifting its guidance, and Nvidia kept climbing after the US cleared H200 chip shipments to ten Chinese firms. The Trump-Xi summit in Beijing added to the good mood, and the index pushed through 7,500 for the first time

FTSE 100 (UK)
Down on the week. Miners did most of the damage, Fresnillo, Antofagasta and Anglo American all got hammered, and banks slid alongside them. It didn’t help that political nerves picked up around a possible Andy Burnham leadership bid, with inflation worries in the background too

S&P/TSX Composite (Canada)
Finished higher despite a shaky middle of the week. Markets were closed Monday for Victoria Day, then dipped midweek as stalled US-Iran talks weighed on banks and gold miners. A big tech-led bounce on Thursday more than made up for it, with oil staying elevated and propping up energy

ASX 200 (Australia)
Slipped lower. Pre-Budget nerves kept things cautious, and Trump calling the Iran ceasefire ""on life support"" didnt help the mood. Lynas got smashed as the rare-earths geopolitical premium unwound on the back of warming US-China talks. Mostly drifting and grinding lower, no clear bid anywhere

🇺🇸 United States – S&P 500

  • High: 7,515

  • Low: 7,340

🇬🇧 UK - FTSE 100

  • High: 10,373

  • Low: 10,156

🇨🇦 Canada – TSX Composite

  • High: 34,065

  • Low: 33,673

🇦🇺 Australia – ASX 200

  • High: 8,711

  • Low: 8,591

Cryptocurrency:

  • Bitcoin (BTC): 0.2%

  • Ethereum (ETH): -1.8%

  • Tether (USDT): 0.0%

  • BNB (BNB): 6.7%

  • XRP (XRP): 5.0%

  • USDC (USDC): 0.0%

  • Solana (SOL): 2.2%

  • TRON (TRX): 1.2%

  • Figure Heloc (FIGR_HELOC): 3.0%

  • Dogecoin (DOGE): 6.0%

Metals Market:

Gold–Silver Ratio: ~58:1, Drifted lower on the week as silver did the heavy lifting rising mid-week on the US-China tariff truce and industrial demand

Gold & Silver:

  • Gold: Fell -3.77% with a Week High: $4,773 & Week Low: $4,533

  • Silver: Fell -4.79% with a Week High: $89.36 & Week Low: $76.92

5. Faith & Success

❝

"The plans of the diligent lead to profit as surely as haste leads to poverty." 

- Proverbs 21:5

I've been thinking a lot about decisions this week… particularly the ones we make in a hurry…

Because if I'm being honest, almost every major loss I've taken, whether that be in business, in property, in life - has come from one single thing: rushing, being impatient & therefore not doing the right amount of due diligence.

There was this one deal years ago, back when I was still building up my property portfolio… I'd found what looked like the perfect investment property. The numbers stacked up (or so I thought), the agent was applying pressure, there were "other interested buyers" (yeah sure, there always is!)

So I jumped.

I didn't do my proper due diligence. I didn't sit on it for a few days (like I now teach you in my programs). I didn't run my normal checks, because I was scared of missing out (sound familiar?)

Well, that "perfect" property turned out to have issues, meaning that the rental yield deteriorated fast.

Lesson? Painfully learned.

And it's why this verse hit me so hard when I read it again this week. Because look at the way it's worded… it doesn't say "ambition leads to poverty". It doesn't say "moving quickly leads to poverty". It's specifically singles out the word haste - the panicky, fear-of-missing-out, must-decide-right-now kind of action.

Diligence, on the other hand, is what produces profit. Slow, boring, unglamorous diligence…

Now, contrast that with what I'm doing at the castle right now. It's been almost 4 years of surveys, drawings, structural engineers, restoration specialists, planning permission, the works… and from the outside, it sometimes feels like nothing's happening. But underneath, what we're building will outlast everyone reading this and our great grandchildren.

THAT'S diligence in action.

It’s worth remembering that the most enduring wealth, the most enduring businesses, and frankly the most enduring lives… are usually built slowly and carefully. Yes, it’s often boring - sorry.

I get accused of this a lot in the Patreon, ha. People say my strategy is “boring” - buying underpriced assets and selling overpriced assets (rinse and repeat).

Yes it’s boring, but just in the last few years, I’ve doubled my net worth from these boring techniques that I teach you all over Patreon… none of this is a mystery, I literally POST and vlog about what I’m doing every single month (even providing you with my exact investment spreadsheet!)

So this weekend, maybe spend a few minutes in quiet contemplation. Ask yourself:

  • Where in my life right now am I being pushed to decide in a hurry?

  • And is that hurry actually serving me… or is it serving somebody else's agenda?

Because more often than not, the right answer is to slow down, gather more information, and walk into your decisions with eyes wide open.

Diligence isn't exciting. But trust me on this one - it works.

Isle Of Man - Neil McCoy-Ward

And talking of slowing down… I thought you may enjoy this picture I took for you.

Have a brilliant weekend my friend!

Take care, and God Bless. Neil,

Digital Income Mastery (Discounted Program): LINK

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DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is 100% FREE & is designed to help your thinking, not direct it. These newsletters shall NOT be construed as tax, legal, or financial advice and may be outdated or inaccurate; all decisions made as a result of this information are yours alone.

Trading/Liability: Neil McCoy-Ward operates/trades under a private Ltd company within the Isle of Man.

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