Your IMPORTANT Weekly Briefing: (13th March 2026)

The Neil McCoy-Ward Newsletter

March 13, 2026

Opening Note…

Wow, what a week! 

Things have escalated severely in the Middle East. And my ‘crazy’ forecast on oil seems to be holding true, despite the drop down to $85 a barrel on Crude…

If you close the strait for any period of time, you therefore cut the supply - at a time of high demand = higher oil prices. 

Now sure, I get all of the arguments people talk to me about strategic emergency reserves around the world… and usually, I'd agree. But you can only release so much from an emergency reserve before it runs empty. And that's the risk I see.

You have a game of chicken right now between the US and Iran. And it's hard to know who's going to back down first.

But one thing I can tell you, is that I can't see any indication of either leader backing down right now… more on this later.

On a more positive note, the launch of your new training program: ‘Digital Income Mastery’ went incredibly well! 

The insider pre launch has now closed, but you can still get the social media offer here.

Just a reminder: The programs are designed to increase your monthly income dramatically and give you more freedom - especially at a time like this when it’s all out chaos.

And I think we all need this right now, especially with the risks I see not just with AI & robotics, but now this war to contend with too. People haven’ quite put 2+2 together yet on this… they are focused on ‘energy’ but are missing the bigger picture in that energy is the starting point yes - but what comes next is everything that energy goes into (transport, manufacturing, FOOD, etc).

Countries can stave this off for a short while, but they can’t forever. Eventually, these (higher prices) are going to feed into everything.

$150 oil would be a very bad situation (I’m not saying we’ll get there, but it isn’t impossible).

Very few even understand what’s coming if this isn’t turned around and quickly… 

Think of oil and gas for the economy, like food and water is to the body. 

Ok, let's break down the latest...

Table of Contents

1. Weekly Spotlight

Oil Just Hit $100 (again), and the US Just Greenlit Russian Oil Sales.

The US, which spent the last year pressuring countries not to buy Russian oil, has just issued a temporary waiver allowing countries to purchase… well… Russian oil. But caveat, specifically that oil that's currently stranded at sea. There's roughly 124 million barrels of Russian oil floating around the world right now…

Treasury Secretary Bessent framed it as a "narrowly tailored, short-term measure" and said it wouldn't provide significant financial benefit to Russia. But come on, you don't reverse your own sanctions policy unless you're desperate to get more supply into the market. And the reason they're desperate is that Brent crude hit nearly $120 a barrel on Monday before pulling back to around $100 by Thursday. Two weeks ago, it was $70. And I think it could go much higher if the strait stays closed.

This waiver started with India… The US gave Indian refiners a 30-day licence to buy Russian oil on March 5th. Then this week, they widened it to all countries. Meanwhile, Russia has said it's ready to increase oil exports to India and China.

So what's actually happening here is that the US is at war with Iran, sanctions on Russia are being loosened because of the conflict, and Russia is now actively benefiting from the chaos. At the same time, reports have come out that Russia (& China) are providing Iran with intelligence on the locations of US military assets. That should tell you just how desperate the energy situation has become behind the scenes if they're willing to do that.

JPMorgan said this week that if the conflict drags on beyond three weeks, Gulf oil producers will run out of storage and have to shut down production entirely. Under that scenario, they're forecasting $120 a barrel; but other forecasts go as high as $200 a barrel.

Bessent says the temporary oil price increase "will result in a massive benefit to our nation and economy in the long term." That's a bold claim, because right now, what I see is oil at $100, sanctions being reversed mid-war, and Goldman Sachs has put recession odds at 25% or more.

2. Quick Takes

Here are the other top stories shaping the week:

  • Half The World's Available LNG Tankers Are Trapped In The Persian Gulf

    At least 20 LNG carriers, roughly half the available global fleet, are stuck inside the Persian Gulf with daily freight rates more than doubling to $200,000. Qatar's Ras Laffan facility, which supplies 20% of the world's LNG, was knocked out by an Iranian drone strike, with Shell and others declaring force majeure, and prices are already up 40% this week across Asia and Europe. - Oil has alternative routes; LNG largely doesn't. There are warnings that the shipping disruption will outlast the conflict itself by months, and there is simply no spare capacity elsewhere to cover the gap.

  • Iran Has Given India A Pass Through The Strait Of Hormuz

    Iran has reportedly assured India of safe passage for its tankers through Hormuz following three calls between foreign ministers, with the first crude carrier arriving in Mumbai since the war began. The situation isn’t very clear, with an Iranian source denying any formal deal and instructions reportedly not being clearly relayed through Iran's administration. Iran has attacked at least 16 ships since late February. - If Iran is selectively letting certain countries through, that's a significant new card being played, and India, as the world's third-largest oil consumer, needed this more than most.

  • The US Military May Have Just Two Months Of Rare Earths Left

    The Iran war is burning through munitions at $5.6 billion in the first two days alone. This is a problem as the US may have only two months of rare earth stocks left, with 71% of those imports coming from China. These minerals are essential for missile guidance and radar systems, and there is no alternative supply chain that could be built quickly. Trump meets Xi on March 31st, and rare earths are expected to dominate their talks. - This is like the Suez Crisis in reverse. In 1956, the US used financial pressure to stop Britain and France mid-operation. Now, China holds that card over Washington.

  • Japan Is Set To Join Trump's "Golden Dome" Missile Defence Project

    Japan's Prime Minister Takaichi is expected to formally announce joining the US "Golden Dome" missile defence initiative on March 19th, with Washington likely asking Tokyo to help produce missiles to replace stocks depleted by the Iran war. Japan already broke its decades-long ban on lethal weapons exports last year by shipping Patriots to the US.

  • US Economic Growth In Q4 Was Quietly Cut In Half

    The Bureau of Economic Analysis has revised US Q4 2025 GDP from 1.4% down to just 0.7%, exactly half the original figure and well below expectations, with consumer spending, exports, government spending, and investment all revised lower. The government shutdown subtracted a full 1% from the bottom line on its own. Domestic demand, the cleaner measure that strips out government and trade, also came in at 1.9% versus an initial estimate of 2.4%.

  • Britain's Economy Flatlined In January Before The Iran War Even Started

    UK GDP hit zero growth in January, missing forecasts of 0.2%, with unemployment at a five-year high and hospitality, recruitment, and food services all contracting. Capital Economics has cut its 2026 UK growth forecast from 1% to as low as 0.1%. Even the markets are pricing in a rate rise rather than a cut. - The economy was already stalling before the oil shock. This will be the nail in the coffin.

  • Deutsche Bank Just Flagged $30 Billion In Private Credit Exposure, And Its Shares Dropped 8%

    Deutsche Bank revealed €26 billion ($30 billion) in private credit exposure, with €15.8 billion tied to the technology sector, sending shares down 8% in their worst day since last April. Morgan Stanley, Cliffwater, and BlackRock have all recently gated investors in their private credit funds, and Deutsche is reportedly stuck in a group of lenders unable to offload $1.2 billion in loans backing a software deal. - Private credit has been the financial world's favourite blind spot for years. The Iran war is keeping this off the front pages, but a $30 billion flag from a major bank is exactly the kind of thing that looks obvious in hindsight.

  • A Prominent Short-Seller Just Did A 180 On Markets, And AI Is Why

    Carson Block of Muddy Waters Capital says his market outlook has completely reversed in a month, driven by AI. He believes 15% of US knowledge worker jobs could be gone within three years, starting with junior roles in law, accounting, and finance. The knock-on concern is that fewer jobs means less money flowing into 401(k)s, and if displaced workers start withdrawing savings, he says there's "nobody there to catch the falling knife." - This connects directly to last week's story on Americans raiding retirement accounts to stay afloat. A wave of white-collar job losses on top of that starts to look like a feedback loop.

  • More Americans Are Packing Up And Moving State, And The Housing Market Is Finally Stirring

    Nearly 19% of US house hunters are looking to relocate, up from 16% during the lockdowns, as mortgage rates drop from a peak of 7.79% to 6%. Florida, South Carolina, and Arizona are the top destinations, while Los Angeles and New York are losing the most residents (who’s surprised?!) Zillow is calling 2026 the first year of real sales growth since 2021. However… there are also some serious red flags hanging over the housing market right now - It’s no shock people are leaving LA and New York, given the current direction they’re heading.

NEIL’S TAKEAWAYS:

In the United States
U.S. markets just hit their lowest levels of 2026. On Thursday, the Dow dropped below 47,000 for the first time this year. Retail investors are now the most bearish they've been since November, and the most recent AAII survey showed bullish sentiment dropping to just 31.9%.

And here's what makes this even more concerning. Iran has directly named Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, IBM, Oracle, and Palantir as potential targets. U.S. intelligence has already issued warnings to companies urging them to harden their defences against cyberattacks. Think about what that means: These are some of the biggest companies in the world, and they carry enormous weight in the major indexes. If any of them are hit, whether physically or through a large-scale cyber event, we could see a serious tech sell-off.

Prepare: Pay close attention to the companies Iran has flagged as targets. Any disruption to those names, whether through cyber or physical action, could send shockwaves through the indexes, given how much weight they carry.

Across Europe:
Gas storage levels across Europe started 2026 at just 46 billion cubic metres, down from 60 bcm last year and 77 bcm in 2024. When the Iran war kicked off, natural gas prices in Europe nearly doubled almost overnight. France, Germany and the UK are all sitting at storage levels close to where they were during the early stages of 2022. The difference this time is that Europe was supposed to have learned its lesson. Instead, storage was allowed to run down, and now the continent is once again scrambling to compete with Asian buyers for available supply on the spot market. And I wouldn’t bet on Europe winning that bid…

In the UK, household energy bills could hit £2,500 a year when the price cap is updated in July. That would be a 50% increase.

The IMF's European department director said this week that despite having the people, technology and savings to grow faster, Europe "appears to be settling into a path of slow and mediocre medium-term growth." The productivity gap with the United States keeps getting wider, and Europe is producing fewer globally competitive companies than it used to.

This is actually the perfect time to think about boosting your income, especially if you have no solid back up plan: Check out Digital Income Mastery here

Prepare: If you have exposure to European markets, energy costs are the thing to watch right now. Companies with high energy input costs, particularly in manufacturing and industrials, are the most vulnerable if prices stay elevated. The UK specifically could see consumer spending take a real hit later in the year once those higher bills land.

On the Global Stage:
The International Energy Agency coordinated the largest emergency oil reserve release in its history. They wanted to increase supply quickly to calm prices and reassure markets that shortages could be managed.

What is striking is that even a 400-million-barrel release, which sounds huge, only amounts to roughly a few days of global oil consumption. Markets quickly realised this does not solve a longer disruption. Prices continuing to rise after the announcement tells us traders are more worried about how long supply risks could last rather than short-term shortages.

Historically, every sustained 10% rise in oil prices pushes global inflation up by 0.4% and reduces worldwide economic output by up to 0.2%. With oil up roughly 30–40% since the conflict began, things are not going to get better globally any time soon.

Prepare: The main thing to watch is whether this remains a short-lived disruption or starts affecting supply chains for months. Energy shocks tend to spread slowly into transport and food before showing up fully in growth data.

3. Chart Of The Week

A Country Of 18 Million People Became The World's Biggest Buyer Of US Oil

The Netherlands imported 419 million barrels of US crude in 2025, more than China, India, and Japan combined, making it the world's largest buyer of American oil despite having a population of just 18 million.

The reason is that Rotterdam is one of the world's biggest energy hubs and processes around 1.1 million barrels a day to redistribute across Europe. Much of this surge is a direct consequence of the Russia-Ukraine war, with European countries replacing Russian energy with American crude.

China, meanwhile, dropped from third to sixth place after cutting US imports by 81 million barrels, turning instead to discounted sanctioned oil from Iran, Russia, and Venezuela.

4. Market Overview

S&P 500 (U.S.)
In the U.S., the S&P 500 moved lower for a third straight week as the war with Iran continued to unsettle markets. Oil prices swung wildly, briefly topping $100 a barrel after Iran's new leader said the Strait of Hormuz would stay closed. Wednesday's inflation data landed about where expected, but a weak GDP revision on Friday raised worries about the economy slowing as energy costs climb.

FTSE 100 (UK)
In the U.K., the FTSE 100 had a rough week as the war between the U.S. and Iran kept markets on edge. Oil prices dragged banks and travel stocks lower. A short-lived recovery on Tuesday gave way to more selling as oil stayed high, and a disappointing UK GDP reading on Friday added to the pressure.

S&P/TSX Composite (Canada)
In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite ended the week lower for the same reason: Iran. Energy stocks like Cenovus and Canadian Natural Resources did well thanks to higher oil prices, but that wasn't enough to offset selling in tech, financials and mining.

ASX 200 (Australia)
In Australia, the ASX 200 had a rough week. The index dropped hard on Monday, partly recovered on Tuesday, then sold off again as oil pushed back above $100 a barrel. Rising energy costs have ramped up expectations that the Reserve Bank could raise interest rates next week, which weighed on banks, tech and property stocks. Energy producers were one of the few bright spots.

🇺🇸 United States – S&P 500

  • High: 6,844.40

    Low: 6,642.94

🇬🇧 UK - FTSE 100

  • High: 10,445.59

  • Low: 10,093.60

🇨🇦 Canada – TSX Composite

  • High: 33,510.73

  • Low: 32,392.81

🇦🇺 Australia – ASX 200

  • High: 8,754.80

  • Low: 8,472.00

Cryptocurrency:

  • Bitcoin (BTC): 4.0%

  • Ethereum (ETH): 7.2%

  • Tether (USDT): 0.0%

  • BNB (BNB): 5.0%

  • XRP (XRP): 3.6%

  • USDC (USDC): 0.0%

  • Solana (SOL): 7.9%

  • TRON (TRX): 1.6%

  • Figure Heloc (FIGR_HELOC): -2.6%

  • Dogecoin (DOGE): 6.5%

Metals Market:

Gold–Silver Ratio: ~62:1, up about 1.5% this week after swinging between 57.6 and 63. Both metals pulled back despite the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure, creating major oil market disruptions. Gold is holding above $5,100 while silver dropped to around $84. Gold held up better than silver this week, pushing the ratio higher.

Gold & Silver:

  • Gold: Fell 1.84% with a Week High: $5,239.18 & Week Low: $5,017.32

  • Silver: Fell 4.28% with a Week High: $94.51 & Week Low: $79.71

5. Faith & Success

❝

“Be strong and courageous. Do not be afraid; do not be discouraged, for the Lord your God will be with you wherever you go.”

— Joshua 1:9

Fear has a way of convincing us to stay where it’s comfortable; often even to make us hide or hibernate - ride out the storm as it were…

It tells you that ‘the timing isn’t right’, that ‘the risk is too high’, or that ‘we’re not quite ready yet’. But the most important steps in life require moving forward before everything feels certain…

This has certainly been true in my life.

And I'm definitely not without fear today… even though I can forecast well, I can't predict something that's moving faster than the information on the ground…

AI is moving rapidly and taking people and companies by surprise every day. The war is causing anxiety and uncertainty throughout the world.

Yet having courage doesn’t mean the absence of fear; it simply means choosing not to let fear make the decision for you.

Every opportunity, every new chapter, every change begins with someone deciding to take a step despite the uncertainty…

This week, don’t wait until fear disappears. Take the step anyway. Progress belongs to those who move forward even when the path ahead isn’t perfectly clear.

Until next time,

God Bless,

Neil,

P.S. Enjoy your new training programs: LINK - they’re going to transform your life!

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This newsletter is 100% FREE & is designed to help your thinking, not direct it. These newsletters shall NOT be construed as tax, legal, or financial advice and may be outdated or inaccurate; all decisions made as a result of this information are yours alone.

Trading/Liability: Neil McCoy-Ward operates/trades under a private Ltd company within the Isle of Man.