Your IMPORTANT Weekly Briefing: (12th December 2025)

The Neil McCoy-Ward Newsletter

December 12, 2025

Opening Note…

Welcome back, friends…

I hope you’ve had a great week in this truly mad World that we find ourselves living in right now. I was only saying to my wife over dinner last night that things are moving so quickly now that even I sometimes have trouble keeping up each day.

And it’s not only keeping up, but it’s also trying to constantly stay informed of which is the ‘good’ side and which is the ‘evil’ side. Take this week, for example… When the US seized the oil tanker. It seemed pretty clear-cut to me, but actually, this caused a huge moral divide right across conservative platforms and media. Some people thought this was great; others said it was piracy and theft. What had looked pretty clear-cut to me actually became a grey area when the comments on my own video showed a very clear division on how people viewed the incident. More on this shortly…

This week I’ve been in the Philippines, I was invited by Dr Steve Turley’s team to spend a few days with them there, and since I’ve never been to the Philippines, I thought, ‘why not’.

On top of this, a friend of mine said, “The Philippines is just like Thailand, so if you love Thailand, you'll love the Philippines”. Ha! I always find it funny when people think that all regional countries are the same. ‘European countries are the same’, or all Asian countries are the same, or even when people tell me that if you've been to the USA, then Canada is just the same… but it’s just not true.

The Philippines is absolutely nothing like Thailand, and Thailand is absolutely nothing like China… each Asian country is very different. For a start, Thailand is very developed, especially in Bangkok. I found the Philippines to be very undeveloped. Thailand is a Buddhist country, and the Philippines is a Catholic nation. So again, the cultural differences are vast.

In the same way that the USA is absolutely nothing like Canada. In fact, we could go deeper and say that each US state can be very different to another…

After the Philippines, my wife and I are going to New Zealand to explore the north and south island for a couple of weeks; I will also be going to visit a client while there. Travel is both exhausting and highly rewarding at the same time, and helps broaden your perspective and horizons, especially around business ideas and investing, for me personally.

Let's break down the latest...

Table of Contents

1. Weekly Spotlight

Is Europe Slowing a Ukraine Ceasefire or Preventing a Bad One?

I really feel that Europe is boxing Trump in on Ukraine right now. It seems as though the EU is purposefully slowing the US-Ukraine-Russia peace plan right down, meaning the war will grind on for longer with even more lives lost.

Of course, Trump has retaliated hard to this. He’s been calling European leaders “weak” and “decaying” and blaming them for failing to end the war. He wants a fast deal that he can put his name to, and from everything I’ve seen, that deal would involve Ukraine giving up some land to Russia in exchange for an end to the conflict.

And here’s where the clash really starts.

The UK, along with France and Germany, has gone out of their way this week to say that Europe is strong and united behind Ukraine. “Not weak. Not falling apart.” All I keep hearing is the same brainwash mantra, and that any peace has to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty and long-term security. The EU institutions have joined in too. Senior Brussels figures have publicly warned the U.S. not to interfere in European affairs and criticised parts of Washington’s security stance as unhelpful, even dangerous. I saw they have even accused some of the language coming from the U.S. of feeding far-right talking points in Europe and weakening transatlantic unity.

From Trump’s side, he sees an opportunity to end the war on terms he thinks are acceptable, and he sees Europe dragging its feet, talking about principles and long-term strategy while Russia gains more land.

Zelenskyy doesn’t seem to be just sitting and waiting for Trump’s plan to update either. He’s been talking with more than 30 countries, many of them European, trying to build support for Ukraine’s own version of a peace plan. Instead of one direct channel from Washington to Kyiv, you now have a whole group of European capitals involved, each with their own red lines and worries and each with its own agenda. For some, that agenda is around their own security and fears, and for others, it involves an opportunity cost: how they can make money out of this war. This certainly seems to be the case with Germany, France and the UK.

2. Quick Takes

Here are the other top stories shaping the week:

  • NATO chief warns Europe to adopt ‘wartime mindset’ against Russia within five years

    NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte used a major speech in Berlin to warn that Europe faces the risk of a large-scale war with Russia within five years and must urgently step up defence efforts. He said “conflict is at our door,” he accused European governments of complacency and called for a full “wartime mindset” rather than just meeting spending targets. Rutte argued that Russia has brought war back to Europe and is willing to sacrifice huge numbers of its own soldiers, asking what Vladimir Putin might then be ready to do to NATO countries. He also claimed China is Russia’s “lifeline”, saying around 80% of key electronic components in Russian drones and weapons come from China, meaning Chinese technology is inside many missiles hitting Ukrainian cities. - I have mentioned these same key dates since 2020. It’s not that I have a crystal ball, but that these fall in line with the fourth turning cycle.

  • Border war between Thailand and Cambodia drags on as Trump prepares fresh intervention

    Thai and Cambodian forces are into a fourth day of heavy fighting along their disputed 817km border, with both sides trading artillery and rocket fire at more than a dozen points. Thailand says it is defending its territory after being “invaded”, while Cambodia accuses Thailand of F-16 air strikes and shelling that it says have hit villages, temples, schools and roads up to 30km inside its land. At least 10 people have been killed in Cambodia, with around 60 wounded, while Thailand reports nine soldiers dead and more than 120 injured, and both countries have moved hundreds of thousands of civilians away from border areas. Donald Trump, who halted similar clashes in July by threatening to freeze trade talks, says he will again call both leaders, though Bangkok is now more cautious and insists the dispute should be handled directly between the two neighbours.

  • US seizes Venezuelan oil tanker as Trump ramps up pressure on Maduro

    US forces have intercepted and seized a tanker off Venezuela’s coast that was carrying 1.1 million barrels of sanctioned Venezuelan crude. The move fits with Trump’s Monroe Doctrine-style push to reassert US power in the Western Hemisphere, as he warns that Nicolás Maduro’s “days are numbered” and refuses to rule out further military steps. Betting markets quickly raised the odds of some form of US-Venezuela military clash by March 2026. There is also a growing concern that this could escalate beyond sanctions and ship seizures. At the same time, the Pentagon has stepped up lethal strikes on drug-trafficking vessels near Venezuela and Colombia, saying it wants to smash networks feeding America’s deadly drug crisis.

  • Argentina pushes UK to relax Falklands-era arms ban as Milei tilts West

    Argentina’s president, Javier Milei, says talks have started with Britain to ease long-standing UK controls that block most Western weapons sales to Argentina, a restriction dating back to the 1982 Falklands War. Milei wants to rebuild Argentina’s battered armed forces, align more closely with the US and Israel, and join what he sees as Washington’s strategic bloc in the Americas against China and Russia. He plans to visit the UK in April or May, meet Sir Keir Starmer and even Nigel Farage, and is signalling a softer line on the Falklands by promising to pursue Argentine claims only through diplomatic and commercial ties while accepting islanders’ right to choose their nationality. London publicly insists there are no “specific” talks about relaxing export controls and repeats that Falklands sovereignty is not up for negotiation, but officials on both sides say wider defence talks are underway.

  • Russia–China bomber patrol sparks new airspace showdown with Japan and South Korea

    Russian Tu-95 and Chinese H-6 bombers flew an eight-hour joint patrol over the Sea of Japan, East China Sea and Western Pacific, escorted by fighters and an A-50 early-warning plane. South Korea says seven Russian and two Chinese aircraft entered its air defence identification zone without prior notice, prompting it to scramble jets and lodge a formal protest. Moscow insists no sovereign airspace was violated and that the mission followed international law. Japan’s defence minister called the repeated joint flights an expansion and intensification of Russian and Chinese military activity, saying they are deliberate acts meant to intimidate Japan at a time of already high tension over Taiwan.

  • EU clashes over plan to use frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine

    Ukraine’s funding gap has pushed EU leaders to fast-track a plan to permanently freeze around €210 billion in Russian state assets and unlock €90 billion for Kyiv over the next two years. Ursula von der Leyen wants to use emergency powers so the decision can pass by majority vote, sidestepping a Hungarian veto as Budapest warns its firms in Russia could be hit in retaliation. Belgium, where most of the assets sit, is deeply nervous, with Prime Minister Bart De Wever calling the plan “complete madness” and demanding EU-wide guarantees in case Russia strikes back against Brussels. Moscow has warned of the “harshest reaction”, with Dmitry Medvedev even calling the move a casus belli (Latin for "case for war"), while EU officials race to agree safeguards before a crunch summit on the 18th December.

  • US moves to demand social media history from visa-free visitors

    The US plans to make travellers from visa-waiver countries hand over up to five years of social media history if they want to enter for short visits. People from places like Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia and others would also have to list phone numbers from the last five years, email addresses from the last ten, IP data from uploaded photos, and more detailed family information. On top of that, the rules would expand biometric data collection, including facial, fingerprint, DNA and iris data, and force everyone to apply through a mobile app instead of a website. The proposal is open for 60 days of public comments, but it shows Washington pushing much deeper into people’s digital lives in the name of security.

  • Australian teens dodge under-16 social media ban and mock Albanese online

    Australia’s new law banning under-16s from using major social media apps is already being openly sidestepped by teenagers using tricks like frowning at cameras, using parents’ IDs, VPNs and even masks and filters to fool age checks. Researchers are pointing out how easily AI age-estimation tools can be worked around. More than 140 experts and big platforms like Meta and Reddit say the rushed law is confusing, weak on tech and risks doing more harm than good, even as the government insists it will save lives and inspire copycat laws overseas.

  • Trump unveils $1m ‘golden visa’ and $5m ‘platinum’ path for wealthy foreigners

    Donald Trump has launched a “Trump Gold Card” scheme that lets wealthy foreigners buy fast-tracked US residency for $1m plus a $15,000 fee, after background checks. Companies can sponsor staff for $2m, then pay ongoing maintenance and transfer fees to move the visa between employees, while a future “Trump Platinum Card” costing $5m would let holders spend up to 270 days a year in the US without paying US tax on non-US income. Trump says the programme will raise “many billions” for a national fund and help US firms keep top global talent, with DHS branding it an expedited route to EB-1 or EB-2 green cards.

  • SpaceX confirms record-breaking IPO plans as Starlink and space data centre vision drive surge

    Elon Musk has confirmed that SpaceX will go public, with the company preparing an IPO in the second half of 2026 that could value it at around $1.5 trillion and raise more than $30–40 billion, eclipsing Saudi Aramco’s listing. The push is fuelled by rapid growth in Starlink, which now has about 8 million customers and is expected to generate most of the $22–24 billion in forecast 2026 revenue, helped by new direct-to-mobile services. Musk says SpaceX has been cash-flow positive for years and plans to use part of the IPO proceeds to build space-based data centres powered by more capable Starlink V3 satellites that can scale to over 100kW of power. He also stresses that NASA will soon be less than 5% of SpaceX’s revenue, arguing that the company is driven mainly by commercial demand rather than government “subsidies”. - The crazy bit here isn’t just the giant IPO number, it’s that SpaceX is basically trying to own the whole stack from rockets to internet to off-world data centres, which makes it feel more like building core infrastructure for a future space economy.

  • Putin turns to crypto as Russia builds rouble-backed stablecoin to dodge sanctions

    Russia has quietly embraced cryptocurrency to keep trade flowing under Western sanctions, with Putin personally backing A7, a payments network co-owned by a sanctioned oligarch and state defence bank PSB. A7’s rouble-backed stablecoin, A7A5, lets Russian businesses convert roubles into crypto and then into mainstream dollar-pegged tokens like Tether, which are used to pay for imports, especially electronics and components from China for its military-industrial base. Trading is concentrated on Russian-linked exchanges such as Grinex, with flows routed through informal crypto-to-cash hubs in places like Hong Kong, showing how state-backed networks now sit at the core of this system. Western sanctions on A7, Grinex and A7A5 have barely dented volumes, and analysts warn that while crypto can’t fully cover big oil and gas deals, it has become a key tool for Russia to spend its energy revenues out of sight of the traditional banking system. - While this is a Russia-specific stablecoin, this plays into a broader trend where BRICS nations are creating alternatives using stablecoins.

NEIL’S TAKEAWAYS:

In The United States:
The Fed has now cut interest rates for the third meeting this year, bringing the main rate down to the mid-3% range, even though inflation is still above the 2% target. That tells us the Fed is shifting from “beat inflation at any cost” toward putting more weight on supporting growth and jobs.

At the same time, the Fed has stopped shrinking its balance sheet (ending quantitative tightening) and has started buying short-term Treasury bills again to keep funding markets stable. It’s no longer pulling liquidity out of the system and is instead adding a bit back in.

There’s also an important split inside the Fed. Some officials wanted a bigger cut, others wanted no cut at all. That tells us there’s no clear agreement on how fragile the economy really is. Because of that, the future path of interest rates is harder to read: investors can see the Fed is more open to cutting than it was six months ago, but they still don’t know how quickly or how much it will cut if inflation stays stubborn.

Prepare: Keep an eye on how the end of QT and the extra liquidity affect markets, credit spreads, funding costs, and risk appetite across different parts of the US economy.

Across Europe
The ECB looks likely to keep its main interest rate at 2% all the way through 2026. Inflation is just above its target, and growth is only a bit above 1%. Inflation is close enough to 2% that the ECB doesn’t feel it has to raise rates again, but it’s not weak enough to give them a clear excuse to start cutting.

In Germany, new forecasts from big economic institutes suggest growth will stay below 1% in 2025, with only a very slow improvement after that. Bureaucracy, poor infrastructure, and pressures from global trade are holding back investment and exports. The German government plans to spend more public money on infrastructure and climate projects, but that support only shows up gradually in the real economy, while pushing budget deficits higher in the meantime.

You can also see the “higher for longer” mindset in bond markets. Long-term government borrowing costs in core countries like Germany and France have risen because investors no longer expect more ECB rate cuts. That rise in long-term yields makes it more expensive to borrow and effectively tightens financial conditions, even though the ECB hasn’t actually raised rates again.

Prepare: Assume that euro-area borrowing costs stay roughly where they are for now. Put more attention on how weak investment, slow productivity growth and individual countries’ budget choices shape overall demand, the ease or difficulty of getting loans, and the extra return investors demand for holding riskier assets across the euro area over the next couple of years.

On the Global Stage
The IMF is urging Beijing to move away from its current model of relying heavily on big industry, exports, and limited social safety nets, and to shift towards an economy where ordinary households spend more on consumer spending.

The fear is that, if China doesn’t change course, its large trade surplus (exporting much more than it imports) and ongoing industrial push will keep sending too many goods into global markets. That would keep adding to trade tensions and political pressure for tariffs and other barriers. At the same time, fixing the property sector and supporting local governments is likely to be a slow and expensive job, which could keep spending inside China weaker than it might otherwise be.

Global trade overall is not shrinking. In fact, the total value of trade is at or near record highs and is still growing faster than the global economy. What is changing is who trades with whom. More trade is being rerouted along political lines, as countries try to move key supply chains to friendly or nearby partners (“friendshoring” and “nearshoring”). That means some exporting countries and trade hubs will gain from new investment and higher volumes, while others lose business as orders are redirected for security or political reasons rather than just cost.

On top of all this, the world is carrying record-high levels of debt. Both rich and poorer countries have borrowed more, and many emerging-market governments have issued a lot of bonds this year.

For stronger borrowers, the mix of lower interest rates in rich countries and solid global trade is still supportive. But for weaker or recently restructured countries, starting with high debt and facing the risk that investors suddenly become more cautious, means their access to funding can change quickly if market mood turns.

Prepare: Focus less on how globalised the world is and more on where it’s heading: who benefits from friendshoring, who is most exposed to a slower and more inward-looking China, and which sovereigns might come under pressure first if investors become more selective about where they lend.

3. Chart Of the Week:

Asia has dominated the Real GDP Growth per Capita of the Top 50 Economies since 2000

Since 2000, real GDP per capita has surged fastest in a handful of Asian economies, with China up 518%, Vietnam 266%, India 235%, Bangladesh 208% and Kazakhstan 183%, driven by industrialisation, exports and deep integration into global trade.

Eastern European countries like Romania and Poland also saw big catch-up gains, with EU membership, investment and productivity growth helping their incomes more than double. By 2025, China’s GDP per person reached about $25,000, while Ireland, boosted by its multinational-heavy model, topped the list in absolute terms at over $120,000.

Not every big economy gained, though: the UAE’s per capita income fell as its population more than tripled, spreading output over many more people even as the overall economy grew.

4. Market Overview

S&P 500 (U.S.)
In the US, the S&P 500 is flat as of writing at~0.0%, with a mid-week push to fresh highs. The early main drivers were rate-cut optimism and a rotation into cyclicals/value (financials/materials) after the Fed’s move, followed by a late-week dip tied to renewed “AI bubble” jitters after chip-related news.

FTSE 100 (UK)
In the UK, the FTSE 100 is up ~0.6%, basically grinding higher with small daily moves. It was supported mainly by precious-metal miners on stronger gold/silver and a broader rates backdrop (Fed cut + markets leaning toward a BoE cut after weak UK GDP data).

S&P/TSX Composite (Canada)
In Canada, the TSX is up ~1.3%, with most of the gains coming after the early-week dip. The move has been led by resource-heavy leadership (miners/materials) plus supportive risk sentiment after central-bank decisions, even as pockets of tech uncertainty showed up in futures commentary.

ASX 200 (Australia)
In Australia, the ASX 200 is up ~1.2%, but it was choppy mid-week before a strong finish. The late-week lift was driven by surging gold miners/materials and strong bank stocks, helped along by a more risk-friendly global rates tone and a weaker U.S. dollar.

🇺🇸 United States – S&P 500

  • High: 6,902.47

    Low: 6,830.08

🇬🇧 UK - FTSE 100

  • High: 9,759.26

  • Low: 9,627.58

🇨🇦 Canada – TSX Composite

  • High: 31,752.10

  • Low: 31,166.27

🇦🇺 Australia – ASX 200

  • High: 8697.40

  • Low: 8564.80

Cryptocurrency:

  • Bitcoin (BTC): 1.7%

  • Ethereum (ETH): 3.4%

  • Tether (USDT): 0.0%

  • XRP (XRP): -1.8%

  • BNB (BNB): 0.0%

  • USDC (USDC): 0.0%

  • Solana (SOL): 2.0%

  • Lido Staked Ether (STETH): 3.4%

  • TRON (TRX): -2.6%

  • Dogecoin (DOGE): -2.4%

Metals Market:

Gold-Silver Ratio: 67 The gold-silver ratio fell this week as there is a growing supply shortage. This, plus the December interest rate drop, led to a surge in precious metals.

Gold & Silver:

  • Gold: This week, gold rose about 3.1% roughly $4,197 → $4,327 per ounce.

  • Silver: Silver rose about 10% about $58.3 → $64.1 per ounce.

5. Faith & Success

❝

“As iron sharpens iron, so one person sharpens another.”

— Proverbs 27:17

It’s easy to go through life thinking we’ve got it handled on our own. No help needed. No backup required. But one thing I’ve learned is this: you don’t reach your highest potential by yourself. We were never meant to. The right people in our lives strengthen us, encourage us, and help pull us closer to who we’re meant to become.

Scripture repeats the phrase “one another” again and again — love one another, encourage one another, serve one another, comfort one another. That repetition is deliberate. It’s a reminder that growth happens in connection, not isolation. We need people around us.

Sometimes we convince ourselves, I’m strong enough. I’m capable enough. I’m talented enough. And maybe that’s true for what we have planned. But not always for what God has planned. What He has in mind is often bigger, deeper, and more meaningful — and it usually requires others alongside us.

So ask yourself: are you flying solo, or do you have people flying with you? People who check in on you, challenge you, encourage you, and believe in you when you’re running low? There’s real power in that kind of connection. Other people’s faith can strengthen yours. Their joy can lift you. Their praise can help you fight battles you weren’t meant to face alone.

And the beautiful part is, it goes both ways. As they’re fuelling you, your faith is fuelling them. We don’t become all we were created to be in isolation; we become it together, surrounded by the right people.

I have to constantly remind myself of this, too. Somedays I think ‘I can do it all, I don’t need any help!’ - But the truth is, we can only go so far on our own; we need the support of others.

Until next time,

God Bless,

Neil,

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DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is 100% FREE & is designed to help your thinking, not direct it. These newsletters shall NOT be construed as tax, legal, or financial advice and may be outdated or inaccurate; all decisions made as a result of this information are yours alone.

Trading/Liability: Neil McCoy-Ward operates/trades under a private Ltd company within the Isle of Man.