Your IMPORTANT Weekly Briefing: (10th July 2026)

The Neil McCoy-Ward Newsletter

July 10, 2026

Opening Note…

Welcome back again this week, and what a wild week it has been!

The EU has lost the plot, and the UK isn’t too far behind… In today’s walk and talk, you’ll hear all about it so I won’t repeat myself here, but wow.

As for me, I’m back home now on the beautiful Isle Of Man and enjoying the wonderful weather.

Table of Contents

1. Weekly Spotlight

Is America Actually Leaving NATO?

Roughly 11% of American troops have either been pulled out of Europe or had their deployment frozen this year alone.

Around 5,000 pulled out of Germany earlier in 2026.

Then in May, the Pentagon paused an entire Army brigade, (about 4,000 personnel) that was meant to head to Poland.

Back in April, in a UK interview, Trump said he was "strongly considering" pulling the US out of NATO entirely. Partly because allies like Spain, France and Italy blocked American access to their airspace and bases during the Iran strikes.

This was the first time a sitting president had openly suggested a full withdrawal as something he's weighing…

Then at Ankara NATO summit he tied it all together, standing right next to Erdoğan: "We could remove all of our soldiers out of Europe." With the main price being Greenland (yes, Greenland again…)

There are about 80,000 US service members across Europe currently.

So why does this matter?

Well the alliance is already rebuilding itself around the assumption that America is on its way out. And this is no secret, they are openly saying this now.

The biggest proof of this transition is NATO formally agreeing a new split: Europe and Canada take over the bulk of conventional defence of the continent, while the US steps back to a nuclear and reinforcement role.

And you can see them pricing it in everywhere:

  • A €27 billion project to build fuel pipelines and storage toward the eastern front.

  • €50 billion in fresh missiles orders.

  • €40 billion pushed into military drones.

  • Plus much more…

There’s also a much more subtle tell to all this… This years statement didn't commit to a summit next year. For a group that's met almost every year for decades, especially given the global tension, leaving the next one off the calendar says plenty about how confident anyone is about the future.

Now, of course, none of this proves anything…

There's even a law saying a president can't leave NATO without the Senate's say-so, so a clean exit isn't simple. Plus Rutte spent the whole summit insisting the numbers are up and the alliance "delivers" (of course he would say that).

But here's the thing I'd leave you with. Whether Trump formally quits might not be the right question. The troops are already thinning and the Europeans are already rearming like they're on their own.

The whole structure is being rebuilt around a smaller American footprint regardless. By the time anyone gets a clean yes or no on troops in Europe, the practical ‘divorce’ would likely already be done.

2. Quick Takes

Here are the other top stories shaping the week:

  • Israel Handed The US "Intelligence" That Iran Wants To Kill Trump, Right As The War Reignited

    Israel passed Washington intelligence claiming Iran is plotting to kill Trump, landing just as the two sides trade blows again. US jets hit over 170 Iranian targets in two days, and Iran fired missiles back at Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Jordan.

  • Oil Jumped 6% When The Iran Ceasefire Collapsed, But It's Still Cheaper Than A Month Ago

    When Trump declared the Iran ceasefire "over" this week, Brent crude leapt 5.7% to around $78 and US crude jumped nearly 6% to $74.60. Yet even after that spike, oil is still below where it sat right after June's peace deal was signed. The reason it hasn't gone vertical is because the Strait of Hormuz is still running at about a third of normal traffic - BUT, I believe the ‘futures market’ may have got this wrong…

  • The First Drop In Global Oil Demand Since The Lockdowns

    The world will burn less oil this year than last, the first annual decline since 2020, the IEA says. Demand is set to fall by around 1 million barrels a day, with the second quarter alone dropping 5 million. Japan slashed crude imports by 40%, and China is on track for its first real decline since the 1980s. This is akk very negative for growth

  • The FBI Says It Just Arrested 113 Foreign Spies, More Than Half Of Them Chinese

    FBI Director Kash Patel says the agency arrested 113 active foreign spies and forced out 62 Chinese nationals this year. Cases span 20 states, including a State Department adviser accused of taking thousands of top-secret files and a former Navy sailor who sold warship details to China for just $12,000. China's IP theft reportedly costs every American family of four around $4,000 to $6,000 a year

  • The US, Japan, And South Korea Are Teaming Up To Sell Mini Nuclear Reactors Worldwide

    The three have signed a deal to fast-track small modular reactors across the Indo-Pacific and Europe, backed by over $10 million in US funding and up to $4.2 billion for nuclear fuel sales. It's dressed up as "energy security," but the real target is beating Russia and China, who dominate nuclear tech exports. Whoever builds a country's reactors locks in decades of influence, so this is a race for allies as much as electricity

  • Brussels Just Passed Mass Surveillance After A Majority Voted Against It

    Europe's Parliament revived "Chat Control 1.0," letting Meta, Google, and Microsoft scan the private messages of half a billion Europeans, even though 314 MEPs voted to kill it and only 276 backed it. A rule meant rejection needed 361 votes, so every empty seat counted as a yes, and the vote fell on the last day before recess when attendance is lowest. Parliament had already rejected these rules in March so they changed the rules to force it to pass

  • Meta Just Started Charging For AI And Undercut Everyone By 75%

    Meta has unveiled its first paid AI model, Muse Spark 1.1, priced at a quarter of what OpenAI and Anthropic charge, with Zuckerberg promising "very aggressive" pricing (to grab market share). Its the same week xAI, OpenAI, and cheap Chinese models all launched - kicking off a price war. If AI keeps getting cheaper while Big Tech pours hundreds of billions in, the payoff looks less and less stable, and a Magnificent 7 stumble could drag the whole market down

  • China Just Put Gold And The Yuan Under One Roof In Hong Kong

    Hong Kong has launched a central gold clearing system, a new delivery link with the Shanghai Gold Exchange, and plans to more than double vaulting capacity to over 2,000 tonnes by 2030, all bundled with an offshore yuan expansion. The moves are deliberately paired: Beijing is building the infrastructure to trade gold and settle in its own currency, chipping away at the dollar

  • Foreigners Just Piled Into A US Bond Sale

    The US Treasury sold $22 billion in 30-year bonds at 5.058%, the highest yield since 2007, and demand was some of the strongest all year. Foreign buyers bought up 77.7% of the auction, the second-highest on record

  • Gold's Sudden Drop Turned Out To Be Traders Panicking

    Gold's slide below $4,050 to a $4,023 low was down to stop-loss selling and traders unwinding positions, not any real shift in fundamentals, says UBS. A record 45% of central banks expect to add to reserves this year, and they've been buying around 1,000 tonnes annually - double the previous decade's pace. Always remember not to look at what you are told, look at the actions that are being done by institutions and big money, in this case they are buying up the price drop while others panic sell…

  • Your Beef Bill Isn't Coming Down Until 2029, Says Bank of America

    BofA's cattle expert says America's herd is the smallest since 1961 and the industry is years from rebuilding, so high beef prices are here to stay. The maths is brutal: even if ranchers hold back young cows now, those calves won't reach stores until 2029 or 2030. Production is set to fall around 5% in 2026 and keep dropping through 2027

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NEIL’S TAKEAWAYS:

In the United States
The Fed's June minutes mentioned "AI" 21 times, up from 8 last time. That tells you exactly where their head is at right now. AI has become the thing holding up growth and one of the main things pushing inflation higher.

And I don't think enough people have realised how uncomfortable that combination is for the Fed… Here's why:

Roughly $750 billion is pouring into data centres, chips, and power, and that's what's keeping GDP afloat while consumer spending isn’t going anywhere. It sounds fine, until you realise the same spending is bidding up the price of electricity and semiconductors, the very things feeding into inflation.

Then June's jobs numbers landed. Unemployment "fell" to 4.2%, which sounds great, until you look closer. Only 57,000 jobs were added against 115,000 expected, and the only reason the rate dropped is that 507,000 people left the workforce entirely, so they don't get counted. That's not a strong labour market. That's a shrinking one dressed up as a win.

Prepare: I think a rate hike is genuinely on the table soon. Lean toward companies with real earnings and low debt, and don't take the AI productivity story on faith, wait to see it actually show up in the numbers before you pay up for it.

Across Europe:
The UK's Office for Budget Responsibility (couldn't have picked a more ironic name) put out its long-term forecast this week, and the number underneath it is one most people will scroll straight past.

National debt is on track to hit 300% of GDP by 2075 if nothing changes. That's three times the size of the entire economy. It's already near 95% today, and here's the part that should worry you, interest payments alone are now the third-biggest thing the government spends money on and it’s only growing.

The OBR's real point is one I've made before: acting early is far cheaper than waiting, because the longer you delay, the bigger the eventual tax rises or spending cuts have to be.

Prepare: A 2075 forecast won't move markets tomorrow, but the direction is what matters. Expect frozen tax thresholds to keep dragging more people into higher tax brackets, that's a tax rise the government never has to announce. Plan around a heavier tax burden, not a lighter one.

On the Global Stage:
The IMF cut global growth for 2026 to 3.0%, blaming the energy shock from the Iran war. But the thing cushioning the blow is the enormous AI investment boom.

So the exact force I flagged in the US section, all that money flooding into chips and data centres, is now propping up the entire global economy while a war drags it the other way. This is useful because it tells you who wins and who loses here.

Look at who got the upgrade, China's now expected to grow 4.6% this year. Its property market is still a mess and consumers are cautious, but a wave of high-tech manufacturing and booming exports, EVs, solar, and the semiconductors feeding the AI boom, is more than covering for it.

Global trade growth is set to slow down to 3.5% this year from 5% in 2025. Some of that is last year's rush to beat tariffs fading. But the bigger story is that the world is splitting into blocs, countries are trading with friends now, not with whoever's cheapest; and that shift doesn't reverse quickly.

Prepare: Here's the catch with this whole IMF forecast, it assumes the Strait of Hormuz reopens this month, but that's far from certain. If you're holding long term, I'd stay in low-volatility assets until that clears. Too much of this rests on one shipping lane staying open. Don’t gamble.

P.S. If you like this kind of commentary, and want detailed investment posts - then you’ll love the private finance and investing community over on Patreon (where you’ll also get as many as 3 Significantly Undervalued stock picks each month). You can also speak with me privately via personal messaging. Check it out here: LINK

3. Chart Of The Week

Kenya And Nigeria Trust The News More Than Anyone, While Only A Quarter Of Americans Do

A survey of nearly 100,000 people across 48 countries found Kenya and Nigeria at the top for trust in news, with 68% saying they trust most of it most of the time, against just 25% of Americans, who rank near the bottom alongside Taiwan and Colombia.

Finland leads Europe at 63%, and the Nordics are among the few places where trust has actually grown.

Unsurprisingly, the UK has taken the biggest G7 hit, sliding from 50% to 30% since 2016, while Hungary props up the table at 17%. When two-thirds of Kenyans trust the news and only a quarter of Americans do, it says as much about the messenger as the audience.

4. Market Overview

S&P 500 (U.S.) 
Rose overall, meaning gold gained on silver. Both climbed early on a weak US jobs report that cut rate-hike bets, but silver fell harder mid-week when the dollar firmed and yields rose, dropping over 4% in a session while gold held up. Silver's heavy industrial demand makes it more sensitive to those macro swings, so the ratio widened.

FTSE 100 (UK)
Fell. AstraZeneca did most of the damage, tumbling after its heart drug flopped in a late-stage trial. Energy names like BP and Shell weighed too as oil swung around on the on-again, off-again US-Iran tensions. Airlines and a few miners had bright spots, but not enough to keep the index out of the red.

S&P/TSX Composite (Canada)
Flat. Gold miners and the banks kept it near record territory, but energy and utilities dragged the other way, so it mostly drifted sideways. Investors sat tight ahead of the Canadian jobs report, with the Bank of Canada widely expected to stay put.

ASX 200 (Australia)
Flat, though it leaned soft most of the week. Renewed Middle East jitters and Trump warning of more strikes on Iran kept a lid on things, and the big miners struggled as copper fell and BHP faced strike news. Gold and energy names offered some cushion, but the banks couldn't get going with the RBA still sounding hawkish.

🇺🇸 United States – S&P 500

  • High: 7,562

  • Low: 7,425

🇬🇧 UK - FTSE 100

  • High: 10,744

  • Low: 10,398

🇨🇦 Canada – TSX Composite

  • High: 35,405

  • Low: 34,627

🇦🇺 Australia – ASX 200

  • High: 8,856

  • Low: 8,680

Cryptocurrency:

  • Bitcoin (BTC): 3.4%

  • Ethereum (ETH): 3.4%

  • Tether (USDT): 0.0%

  • BNB (BNB): 1.5%

  • USDC (USDC): 0.0%

  • XRP (XRP): -1.5%

    Solana (SOL): -3.7%

  • TRON (TRX): 3.2%

  • Figure Heloc (FIGR_HELOC): -3.5%

  • WhiteBIT Coin(WBT): 0.0%

Metals Market:

Gold–Silver Ratio: ~68:1, Rose overall, meaning gold gained on silver. Both climbed early on a weak US jobs report that cut rate-hike bets, but silver fell harder mid-week when the dollar firmed and yields rose, dropping over 4% in a session while gold held up. Silver's heavy industrial demand makes it more sensitive to those macro swings, so the ratio widened.

Gold & Silver:

  • Gold:  -1.28% with a Week High: $4,203 & Week Low: $4,023

  • Silver: -3.38% with a Week High: $63.29 & Week Low: $57.27

5. Faith & Success

❝

"A joyful heart makes a cheerful face."

— Proverbs 15:13

No big lessons this week, instead I just wanted to share a heart warming happy ending…

Since our young chick was obviously stressed out (and hens are flock animals), we decided to get her a little friend!

Both are inseparable and getting along great.

Have a brilliant weekend my friend!

Take care, and God Bless.

Neil,

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DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is 100% FREE & is designed to help your thinking, not direct it. These newsletters shall NOT be construed as tax, legal, or financial advice and may be outdated or inaccurate; all decisions made as a result of this information are yours alone.

Trading/Liability: Neil McCoy-Ward operates/trades under a private Ltd company within the Isle of Man.

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