Your IMPORTANT Weekly Briefing: (10th April 2026)

The Neil McCoy-Ward Newsletter

April 10, 2026

Opening Note…

Hi, and welcome back.

I have to start today by saying how concerned I am by the recent developments this week and the US to NATO ultimatum over Iran…

I just made a video about this today so I’ll let you watch that and judge for yourself.

But I seriously think that in the best case scenario, this could lead to NATO getting involved in a war that they’re not ready for… And in the worst case scenario - this could lead to a larger war breaking out between many of the major powers.

I’ll continue to monitor the announcements for you and I’ll keep you posted.

In the meantime, please watch today’s Walk & Talk video for the full update.

Ok, let's break down the latest...

Table of Contents

1. Weekly Spotlight

The Ceasefire That Isn't Really A Ceasefire

Let me tell you about the most creative interpretation of the word "peace" you'll see this year.

On Tuesday night, April 7th, with less than two hours to go before Trump's deadline to "take out" Iran, the US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire. Markets surged, oil prices dropped more than 16% in a single day (their biggest fall since the lockdowns). Trump posted on Truth Social that it was "a big day for World Peace!"

Then, almost immediately, the missiles kept flying.

Within hours of the announcement, Kuwait was intercepting 28 Iranian drone attacks. The UAE faced 35. Qatar intercepted 7 ballistic missiles. Saudi Arabia's critical east-west oil pipeline was struck by a drone. Israel, meanwhile, launched what it called its largest wave of strikes on Lebanon since the war began, 100 airstrikes in 10 minutes.

JD Vance, when asked about this, offered perhaps the most honest thing anyone has said about this whole situation: "Ceasefires are always messy."

The way I see it is that neither side could really afford to keep fighting, but neither could afford to be seen as the one who blinked. Another issue with the idea of a ceasefire is that Iran's military operates under 31 separate regional commands, which means some commands may not accept the ceasefire.

On top of the ceasefire, since mid-March, Iran has been charging ships for passage through the Strait of Hormuz in crypto or Chinese yuan routed through a banking system that Western sanctions cannot touch. The fee is roughly $1 per barrel of oil on board. A fully loaded supertanker carries around 2 million barrels.

The Strait of Hormuz normally carries about 20% of the world's seaborne oil and gas, and at even modest traffic levels, analysts estimate this toll system could generate $600 to $800 million per month. Iran has passed a law formalising it and are comparing it to the Suez Canal.

Iran was damaged militarily, there's no question about that, or that it’s missiles were successful (and took most by surprise). Its supreme leader was killed, its military infrastructure was hammered, its nuclear programme was set back. But regardless - it’s still sitting on the strait, still controlling who passes and under what conditions, and it has now established that it can charge tolls in a currency the West cannot confiscate. They turned the Strait into a weapon, and Iran is now converting that weapon into a permanent revenue stream.

Don’t expect the ceasefire to hold. And regardless, it doesn’t change anything around the energy crisis on the way…

2. Quick Takes

Here are the other top stories shaping the week:

  • American Men Will Be Auto-Registered For The Draft At 18

    The US is scrapping the opt-in military draft registration system, and from December, all men will be automatically enrolled on their 18th birthday using federal data, as part of the 2026 National Defence Authorisation Act. Women remain excluded. This comes as the country is mid-conflict with Iran and a fragile ceasefire holds, with the White House refusing to rule out a full draft. - We are going to see this growing more and more across the Western world

  • Japan Is Releasing Emergency Oil Reserves And Ditching Middle Eastern Suppliers

    Japan is releasing 80 million barrels from its national stockpiles, enough to cover 50 days of demand, with a second release planned for May, adding another 20 days, as part of the IEA's coordinated 400-million-barrel emergency release across wealthy nations. Japan gets 95% of its oil from the Middle East, making it one of the most exposed countries on the planet to the Hormuz disruption. The government says it will have sourced half its imports from outside the region by next month, with US crude imports running four times higher than a year ago, and new deals being struck with Malaysia, Azerbaijan, Brazil, Nigeria, and Angola.

  • Indiana Suspends Its Gas Tax As Pump Prices Keep Rising

    Indiana's governor has declared a 30-day gas tax holiday, suspending the state's 7% sales tax on fuel after average prices hit $4.13 a gallon, up from $3.46 just a month ago. Georgia was first to act, suspending its tax for 60 days back in March. The Iran ceasefire has pushed oil back below $100 a barrel, but prices are still sharply above where they were before the conflict started.

  • The US Postal Service Just Stopped Paying Into Its Own Pension

    USPS has paused its employer contributions to the federal pension system to save $2.5 billion before September, after warning Congress it could run out of cash entirely by February 2027 if nothing changes. The postal service has lost money every year but one since 2007, racking up $118 billion in total losses, and is now weighing cutting delivery to five days a week and raising stamp prices to 95 cents. - An organisation that loses money almost every single year for nearly two decades, skipping pension payments to stay afloat - will eventually collapse.

  • US Commercial Real Estate Delinquencies Just Hit COVID-Era Highs

    CMBS delinquency rates jumped to 7.55% in March, the highest in years, with offices at 11.71%, hotels surging to 7.31%, and multifamily hitting a fresh record of 7.15%. Office buildings are selling for pennies, with one Chicago tower that went for $68 million a decade ago recently changing hands for $4 million, and a Denver complex that sold for $176 million in 2013 picked up for just $5.3 million. If loans technically current but past their maturity date are included, the real delinquency rate is closer to 9%. - This has been a slow bleed since the lockdowns, and the reserves that kept landlords and lenders afloat for years are running out. It seems like the reckoning that got delayed is now arriving.

  • Blair Tells Miliband To Open The North Sea Now

    Tony Blair's think tank is calling on Energy Secretary Ed Miliband to immediately approve the Rosebank and Jackdaw North Sea fields, with oil prices still sitting around $98 a barrel after hitting $120 last month and petrol up 25p a litre. Rosebank alone holds an estimated 300 million barrels. Miliband has so far refused, insisting more drilling won't cut bills. - I feel like I don’t even need to explain how absurd this is. Producing our own oil will absolutely ease the prices on energy bills.

  • OpenAI Pauses UK Stargate Over Regulation And Energy Costs

    OpenAI has put its UK Stargate data centre plans on hold, pointing directly at regulatory conditions and high energy costs as the blockers, while similar projects move ahead in Norway and the UAE. The UK pause is part of a broader picture, with nearly half of all US data centres planned for this year already delayed, mostly due to shortages of electrical equipment like transformers rather than chips. - Britain spent years making energy expensive and regulation complicated, and is now surprised that a company building the most power-hungry infrastructure in history can’t make it profitable.

  • Two Thirds Of Voters Want Starmer Out

    A new poll finds 64% of UK voters want Keir Starmer to resign immediately, with nearly half of Labour's own 2024 voters agreeing, while just 18% think he should stay. Labour is forecast to lose 1,900 councillors in the May 7 local elections, with Reform expected to pick up 2,260 seats and is literally campaigning on the slogan "Vote Reform, Get Starmer Out." Reform has led in the polls for a full year.

  • China's Debt Just Overtook The Entire European Union

    China's government debt hit $18.7 trillion in 2025, passing the EU's $17.6 trillion for the first time, after growing at roughly 17% a year since 2008, when it stood at just $1.2 trillion. US debt meanwhile, sits at $38.3 trillion, having grown at 7.7% annually over the same period, while the EU managed a far more modest 3% a year.

NEIL’S TAKEAWAYS:

In the United States
Markets had their best day in nearly a year on Wednesday after Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, sending the S&P 500 up 2.5% and oil crashing toward $90 a barrel.

By Thursday, the rally was already showing cracks, with Iran restricting Strait of Hormuz traffic and its parliament calling the deal violated. Oil climbed back above $98. This is what a relief rally built on a fragile ceasefire looks like.

The problem is that the economy was already thin when it walked into all of this. Q4 GDP was revised down to just 0.5% annualised growth this week, with the autumn government shutdown knocking over a full percentage point off that number on its own.

Prepare: Stay cautious with anything swept up in the ceasefire rally, particularly airlines, energy plays, and consumer discretionary. I'll also be watching the March CPI data closely, because that number will tell us how much of the war's energy shock has already landed on American households.

Across Europe:
Three months ago, markets were pricing in ECB rate cuts through 2026. That conversation is now over. Goldman Sachs, ABN AMRO, and Barclays all expect a rate hike at the April 30 meeting, and markets are currently putting the odds at 88%.

The head of Germany's central bank has publicly called for a hike if energy costs don't ease. Mortgages, business loans, and consumer borrowing across Europe could all be getting more expensive again.

Inflation across the eurozone jumped from 1.9% in February to 2.5% in March, and energy is the main culprit. Europe's position here is fragile. Gas storage is well below where it should be for this time of year, with Germany and France both less than a quarter full.

Things are bad enough that even the European Commission used the word "stagflation" this week. The Commission is now preparing to cut its 2026 growth forecast.

Goldman Sachs has already raised its gas price forecast for the coming months, warning that Europe will need to compete with Asia to secure enough supply before next winter.

Prepare: Avoid anything that depends on borrowing costs falling. The April 30 ECB meeting is now one of the most important dates on the calendar this quarter for Europe. Focus on companies with strong cash flow, low debt, and the ability to pass rising costs onto customers. Energy-intensive businesses and anything tied to real estate are the most exposed.

On the Global Stage:
The IMF opened its Spring Meetings in Washington this week with a blunt message. Its chief Kristalina Georgieva said that even in the best-case scenario, global growth will be cut, and that things will NOT simply go back to normal once the war ends.

The damage is already done. The fund expects to need up to $50 billion in emergency support for countries caught in the fallout, with at least 45 million people now at risk of not having enough food as a direct result of the conflict.

Asia is feeling this the hardest. Before the war, 84% of the oil and 83% of the gas passing through the Strait of Hormuz was heading there. Japan has already tapped into its emergency fuel reserves just to keep the country running, and confidence among Japanese households crashed to its worst reading in years this week.

Countries like the Philippines, Thailand, and South Korea import between 60% and 95% of the energy they need, and there is simply no quick alternative for that kind of dependency.

Prepare: Do not assume central banks will step in with rate cuts to support growth anytime soon. Watch the IMF's updated forecasts due next week closely, as they will set the direction for how governments and central banks respond through the rest of 2026. Any investments tied to countries that rely heavily on imported energy, particularly across Southeast Asia, are worth reviewing right now.

3. Chart Of The Week

Americans Are Voting With Their Wallets, And Moving South

Florida pulled in $21 billion in net income from people moving in from other states in 2023 alone, more than the next five states combined, with incoming residents earning an average of $122,530 a year.

Texas added $6 billion, while the Carolinas, Arizona, and Tennessee each gained $3-4 billion.

On the other side, California lost $12 billion in a single year, $91 billion over five years, with New York down $10 billion and Illinois losing $6 billion.

4. Market Overview

S&P 500 (U.S.)
Rose overall. Energy stocks jumped early on high oil, then fell after the deal. Tech dropped on Fed rate worries. Health and some AI stocks gained. All sectors joined the big mid-week bounce.

FTSE 100 (UK)
Rose overall. Mining (like Antofagasta) soared over 10%. Banks and builders led gains. Energy giants (BP, Shell) tanked on cheap oil.

S&P/TSX Composite (Canada)
Rose overall. Resources and banks pushed it higher. Gold miners rose on good news. Most sectors are up, but caution hit late.

ASX 200 (Australia)
Rose overall. Energy and resources won early from oil spikes, then most areas rallied on ceasefire relief before a small pullback.

🇺🇸 United States – S&P 500

  • High: 6,843.57

  • Low: 6,536.95

🇬🇧 UK - FTSE 100

  • High: 10,683.30

  • Low: 10,332.09

🇨🇦 Canada – TSX Composite

  • High: 33,797.87

  • Low: 32,931.71

🇦🇺 Australia – ASX 200

  • High: 8,972.80

  • Low: 8,547.30

Cryptocurrency:

  • Bitcoin (BTC): 7.2%

  • Ethereum (ETH): 6.4%

  • Tether (USDT): 0.0%

  • XRP (XRP): 1.5%

  • BNB (BNB): 2.7%

  • USDC (USDC): 0.0%

  • Solana (SOL): 4.4%

  • TRON (TRX): 1.6%

  • Figure Heloc (FIGR_HELOC): 0.0%

  • Dogecoin (DOGE): 0.9%

Metals Market:

Gold–Silver Ratio: ~62:1, the gold–silver ratio was flat/down roughly around –2% both assets were surprisingly flat despite the global tension going on.

Gold & Silver:

  • Gold: Rose 1.80% with a Week High: $4,855 & Week Low: $4,602

  • Silver: Rose 4.30% with a Week High: $77.66 & Week Low: $69.92

5. Faith & Success

❝

“You will keep in perfect peace those whose minds are steadfast.”

— Isaiah 26:3

There's just something unsettling about the world right now… The news doesn't seem to slow down and everyone seems to have a strong opinion about just about everything and anything.

And it can feel like the ground keeps shifting beneath your feet before you've even found your footing from the last crisis…

When that happens, the mind tends to do what our minds do best, racing ahead, hitting the worst-case scenarios and trying to get ahead of what might be coming… And of course, this is smart - it’s a form of protection.

But… yes there’s a but - I've found that my own personal peace doesn't usually arrive through having everything figured out. It comes from just steadying and preparing oneself both physically and mentally for whatever comes.

Not controlling everything happening around you (that's rarely possible anyway). But finding something solid to stand on regardless. When your thoughts are being pulled in ten directions at once, it's hard to think straight, let alone make good decisions. But when you can slow down and get grounded, something begins to happen.

Also, difficult seasons have a way of revealing who people around us really are. And it’s the people who manage to stay level when everything feels chaotic that you want around you.

So this week, think about preparedness, but also think about your own mental strength and how you will deal with what may or may not come.

A calm, yet focused mind in an uncertain world is a real advantage.

Speak next week,

Neil,

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This newsletter is 100% FREE & is designed to help your thinking, not direct it. These newsletters shall NOT be construed as tax, legal, or financial advice and may be outdated or inaccurate; all decisions made as a result of this information are yours alone.

Trading/Liability: Neil McCoy-Ward operates/trades under a private Ltd company within the Isle of Man.