This Week’s Spotlight: (Week Ending 9th May 2025)

The Neil McCoy-Ward Newsletter

May 09, 2025

Opening Note…

Welcome back!

It’s been nothing short of a whirlwind week, with rising tensions between India and Pakistan, a seismic shift in UK politics, America landing its first major trade deal under new tariff-first policies, and of course… the election of a new pope.

If you remember last week, we unpacked Trump’s record-breaking first 100 days. But did you catch what Biden had to say about it? He just popped up out of nowhere, and landed a slot on the BBC, probably because no U.S. network wanted the interview! He said Trump’s handling of the Ukraine-Russia conflict was nothing more than appeasement and said Trump has done a terrible job with everything so far.

Now, forgive me… but this is the same Biden who spent years fuelling a ‘forever war’, doing next to nothing to bring it to an end (and shhh! Don’t talk about leaving all the best military equipment in the World in Afghanistan for the Taliban to use). I just thought it was amusing to watch…

Oh and he claimed he could have beaten Trump again… and that these were the worst 100 days of any presidency - ever. (I’m curious to know what you think about this, so read to the end to fill out a quick poll on this subject so I can get to know your views better.)

And speaking of conflicts, the rising tensions between India and Pakistan are starting to look seriously worrying too (and I don’t just mean on the streets of Bradford, UK!) - No I’m not joking, there are actually clashes on the streets in the UK over this…

Back to the point… with both sides now boasting far greater military capabilities, the risk of all-out war is growing by the day. And make no mistake, if this happens, it won’t just be a regional crisis.

It could send shockwaves throughout the global economy. Together, India and Pakistan are home to over 1.7 billion people, nearly a quarter of the world’s population. Any disruption there could rattle global supply chains, especially in IT services. Let’s not forget India is a world leader in tech, software development, customer support, and outsourcing. If that engine stalls, the impact would ripple across industries worldwide.

And while neither country is a major oil producer, an escalation could threaten nearby shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for a third of the world’s oil. So yes, this is more than just a border dispute. It’s a real threat to markets, energy, food, and tech on a global scale.

Naturally, this kind of disruption tends to trigger major capital outflows, especially from emerging markets. Because when uncertainty spikes, investors run for cover. This can lower the stock markets value and be prime time to pick up low-value stocks. That’s exactly why I developed my stock market program. Built to help you navigate volatility and spot real opportunities when others are sitting on the sidelines.

The Ultimate Stock Market Investing Program - How to Invest with Confidence—No Matter the Economy! https://www.neilmccoyward.com/stocksuccess

Let's now break down the top stories from this week...

Table of Contents

1. Weekly Spotlight

Trump and ‘2 Tier Kier’ Seal 'Breakthrough' U.S.-UK Trade Deal

On May 8th, 2025, President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a major new trade agreement touted as a breakthrough in rebuilding economic ties between the two nations. This marks the first big deal since the U.S. rolled out its sweeping global tariffs back in April. A timely move… and one both leaders hope will set the tone for future transatlantic cooperation.

Key Highlights:

  • Tariff Adjustments: “As part of the deal, the U.S. will slash tariffs on British car imports from 27.5% down to 10% but only on the first 100,000 vehicles each year (last year, 101,000 cars were exported to the US). On top of that, tariffs on UK steel and aluminium heading to the U.S. are being scrapped entirely. In return, Britain agreed to lower its average import duties on American goods from 5.1% to just 1.8%. It’s a give-and-take arrangement… but one that both sides are spinning as a win for their industries

  • Agricultural Access: The UK has also agreed to open the door wider for U.S. farmers, offering a tariff-free quota for 13,000 metric tonnes of American beef. Tariffs on U.S. ethanol are being lifted as well, giving American agriculture even greater access to British markets. It’s another headline win for U.S. exporters… and one that’s sure to stir debate here at home about who’s really getting the better end of the deal

  • Industry Impact: On the UK side, sectors like automotive and aerospace are expected to see the biggest gains. Companies such as Rolls-Royce have already felt the impact, seeing their share prices tick up following the announcement. It’s early days, but the market reaction suggests investors are betting on this deal delivering real opportunities for British industry

  • Strategic Cooperation: The agreement goes beyond tariffs, too. It includes plans to build a secure pharmaceutical supply chain aimed at reducing reliance on riskier global suppliers. There’s also a proposal to create a new trading union for steel and aluminium, signalling a wider commitment to economic security on both sides of the Atlantic.

  • Hidden Clause: Perhaps the most eyebrow-raising part of this deal… the UK has effectively handed Washington veto power over Chinese investment on British soil. That’s right, under the agreement, the U.S. will have the ability to block Chinese companies from investing in the UK if it’s deemed a security risk. It’s a major concession… one that raises serious questions about just how much control Britain is willing to hand over in the name of closer ties with America.

Bottom Line: This so-called ‘breakthrough’ deal is being hailed as a pivotal moment in reshaping U.S.-UK trade relations, delivering quick wins for a handful of key industries, while promising deeper economic ties down the line. But as always, the real test won’t be in the headlines… it’ll be in the long-term balance of power and who truly comes out on top.

2. Quick Takes

Here are the top stories shaping the week, updated with more details and stories as you requested!

  • British troops could join EU missions under Brexit defence pact:
    According to a leaked draft, Britain could soon agree to deploy troops on EU missions as part of a proposed defence and security pact with Brussels. The draft outlines deeper cooperation on intelligence sharing, military operations, and emerging security threats. It also offers UK arms firms potential access to the EU’s €150 billion rearmament fund. One of the main catches is that Britain may have to allow EU fishing in UK waters for at least three more years. Critics are already sounding the alarm, warning the deal could tie UK foreign policy too closely with Brussels… and even open the door to an ‘EU army’ presence. Worth noting, though, the draft stops short of offering any firm guarantees on that rearmament fund access. One to watch closely…

  • Xi and Putin Embrace in Moscow, Vow to 'Defend Multipolar World Order':
    In Moscow, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin have once again reaffirmed their strategic alliance. The meeting sends a clear message that they are united against Western dominance, standing firm for what they call a ‘multipolar world order’. The two leaders didn’t hold back accusing the West of pushing ‘Neo-Nazism and Militarism’ through its foreign policies. Strong words… signalling that the divide between East and West is growing deeper by the day

  • India offers to slash tariff gap by two-thirds in dash to seal trade pact with Trump:
    India is taking a move to ease trade tensions with the U.S., offering to slash its average tariff gap from nearly 13% down to below 4%. This is to secure an exemption from President Trump’s current and future tariff hikes. The proposal includes cutting tariffs to zero on 60% of current tariff lines and giving preferential access to 90% of U.S. imports. At the same time, India is pushing for better access for its own exports, textiles, seafood, and horticultural goods while relaxing entry rules for American products like aircraft, cars, and medical devices. India is also seeking parity with key U.S. allies in critical tech sectors. All eyes are now on Washington… to see how far they’re willing to go

  • India's Defense Budget Outgrows Pakistan's:
    Tensions between India and Pakistan have flared once again, this time over Kashmir. India has launched fresh airstrikes on Pakistani territory, responding to a recent terror attack that left 26 Indians dead. It’s a reminder of the 2019 crisis, when similar strikes pushed both nations to the brink. These two rivals have only strengthened their military capabilities since then. India, the larger power, commands a much bigger defence budget. But on a per-capita basis, the gap isn’t quite as wide. Both sides have modernised their forces in recent years… and that’s exactly what’s fuelling concerns. With tempers high and firepower greater than ever, the risk of escalation of these two nuclear powers is rising fast.

  • US military to start kicking out transgender troops next month, memo says:
    U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ordered the military to begin removing transgender service members who don’t voluntarily separate by June 6th for active duty, and July 7th for reservists. This follows a Supreme Court ruling allowing the Trump administration’s ban to move forward. Public support for transgender military service has also slipped from 71% in 2019 to 58% today.

  • UK scientists are about to attempt to dim the Sun:
    “The UK government is getting ready to spend £50 million of taxpayers’ money on an experimental geoengineering project aimed at dimming the sun to tackle global warming. Yes… You heard that right, blocking sunlight - IN THE UK that has hardly any Sun. And I bet you can already guess what’s on the table. That’s right… chemtrails; something I’ve been talking about for years and called crazy over. Well the plan is ‘exactly’ what has already been done for years! You can’t make this stuff up! The grand plan is spraying reflective particles into the atmosphere, brightening clouds with seawater, and even thinning cirrus clouds to let more heat escape. What could possibly go wrong?

  • Trump names Fox News host as top Washington DC prosecutor:
    President Trump has named Jeanine Pirro, Fox News host and former prosecutor, as interim U.S. Attorney for Washington, D.C. This comes after his previous pick, Ed Martin, lost backing in the Senate. Pirro, a longtime Trump ally, is no stranger to controversy, having been linked to false election fraud claims in a lawsuit later settled by Fox News. Still, Trump hailed her as a ‘crusader for victims of crime’, though he stopped short of confirming whether she’ll get the role permanently. As for Martin, he’s not out of the picture. He’s been reassigned to lead a Justice Department unit investigating officials involved in past inquiries targeting Trump, keeping the administration’s focus firmly on those probes.

  • American Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost Announced As New Pope:
    Cardinal Robert Prevost of Chicago has been elected as the new pope, taking the name Leo the Fourteenth. He is known for his traditional stance on social issues, firmly opposing same-sex marriage and gender ideology. Interestingly, while seen as a social conservative, he’s also been openly critical of political figures like Donald Trump and JD Vance. This was a very interesting selection…

NEIL’S TAKEAWAYS:

In the United States
The trade war continues, but it seems there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Nations are starting to feel the squeeze from tariffs, and that pressure is nudging them back to the negotiating table. We’re already seeing signs of this with major players like China and India beginning to re-engage. It’s early days, but the shift has started.

Research: Here’s a question worth asking yourself right now. How diversified are you, really? Are you properly hedged to handle the volatility we’re seeing in today’s markets? Because if the answer isn’t a confident ‘yes’, it might be time to rethink your strategy.

Across Europe
The UK’s new trade deal isn’t a silver bullet for the economy. Those flat 10% tariffs on goods? They’re still very much in place. The only real movement’s been on a few targeted items, like steel. Meanwhile, over on the continent, the rest of the EU is taking a very different approach, filing a case against the US at the World Trade Organisation over what they claim are unfair and damaging tariffs. Two very different strategies here. The UK, trying to make the best of a tough hand. The EU, choosing to go toe-to-toe with Washington.

Research: Right now, it’s crucial to focus on what’s already been gained from the new deal. Which sectors stand to benefit? Take steel, for example now tariff-free. Industries linked to that are naturally better positioned to outperform those still weighed down by tariffs. It’s all about identifying where the pressure’s eased… and where the opportunities could start to open up.

On the Global Stage
With the Fourth Turning cycle now fully underway, we’re seeing the next chapter of global tension unfold. A fresh conflict is brewing between India and Pakistan, two long-standing rivals. And let’s be honest, the risk of escalation here is dangerously high. And this is especially worrying when you consider just how much military firepower both sides now bring to the table. Pakistan, in particular, has grown even closer to China… and the evidence is right there in the skies. We’re already seeing Chinese fighter jets flown by Pakistani pilots squaring off against Indian aircraft in live dogfights. That alone tells you just how quickly this regional clash is drawing in global players. At the same time, China and Russia are tightening their relationship. Xi Jinping standing shoulder to shoulder with Putin at the Victory Day parade says it all. It’s a clear message to the West… alliances are shifting, and the stakes just keep rising

Research: History tells us the world moves in cycles. And right now, we’re nearing the end of the current one. The clearest sign? Rising conflict spreading year after year, region by region. This is exactly where assets like gold and silver come into their own. They aren’t just investments, they’re protection. When major systems begin to crack, these are the safe harbours. That’s why it’s more important than ever to stay diversified. To shield your wealth… while the cycle plays out.

3. Important Video of The Week

Breaking Down The Details Behind What The UK 🇬🇧 & USA 🇺🇸 Just Announced, And How It Impacts China…

My latest Walk & Talk dives into the US/UK announcement. Some people think it was a great deal, others think it was terrible. Here are my thoughts... Watch Full Video On Youtube

4. Chart of the Week

The Countries Most Dependent on Imported Fuels

Imports account for over two-thirds of energy use in countries representing 20% of global GDP, including industrial powerhouses like Germany, Japan, and Italy. However, the most dependent countries are usually small island nations.

5. Market Overview

Markets have been, shall we say, a bit of a mixed bag this week. Some bright spots, some caution. Over in North America, both the U.S. and Canada saw modest gains, driven, of course, by renewed whispers of progress on trade deals. Meanwhile, European markets played it safe, with investors weighing up the impact of shifting fiscal policies. Over in Australia, we see strong demand for commodities, giving their markets a bit of a lift. All eyes now turn to the ongoing tariff talks, particularly between Washington and Beijing. And let’s not forget central banks are still very much in play, with every rate move under the microscope

  • 🇺🇸 United States – S&P 500

    The S&P 500 experienced volatility from ongoing tariff discussions and Federal Reserve policy decisions. While the index rose higher on May 8, by the end of day, it had lost most of its gain only gaining 0.3% to 5,663 for the week and down 3.5% year-to-date. But it’s up BIG on the month!

  • 🇬🇧 United Kingdom – FTSE 100

    The FTSE 100 held its ground this week showing a fair bit of resilience, all things considered. The Bank of England played its part bringing interest rates down to 4.25%. A move aimed at cushioning the economy against the ripple effects of those ongoing global trade tensions. Another big rise on the month!

  • 🇨🇦 Canada – TSX Composite

    The TSX Composite Index reached a five-week high, closing at 25,254 as of writing this is mostly driven by gains in financial and technology sectors.

  • 🇦🇺 Australia – ASX 200

    The ASX 200 This week started off pretty rough dropping over 1% but the last few days it has risen higher, ending at 8,231 What turned it around? Well, fresh optimism over potential U.S. trade deals helped and some strong earnings reports from major Australian companies provided support to the market. Notably, Macquarie Group reported a better-than-expected net profit of $3.72 billion.

Cryptocurrency:

  • Bitcoin (BTC): Substantially up over the past week, trading at $103,209 as of writing ,driven by renewed interest from institutional investors and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.

  • Ethereum (ETH): Strong performance, rising over 28% over the past week to $2,345. Increased adoption in DeFi and NFT spaces continues to support its upward trajectory.

  • XRP: Up 8.8% over the week, currently priced at $2.41. Investor sentiment remains cautious amid regulatory challenges.

  • Binance Coin (BNB): Moderate gains, up 6.2% this week, trading at $636. The platform's resilience amid market fluctuations is notable.

  • Solana (SOL): Strong upward momentum, gaining 15.7% over the past seven days, now at $173. Increased developer activity and ecosystem growth are driving the trend.

  • Dogecoin (DOGE): Up 15.7% this week to $0.2089. Community engagement and meme-driven rallies continue to influence its performance.

  • Cardano (ADA): Up 12.7% over the week, priced at $0.7967. Development updates and smart contract utilization are sustaining interest.

  • Tron (TRX): Smaller increase, up 7% this week to $0.262.

Neil’s Summary: We’re seeing things holding fairly steady at the moment with some spikes, mostly driven by emotion, psychology & headlines, not by the underlying fundamentals. So, let’s not get carried away by the mainstream media splashing stories about markets ‘surging’. We should be looking at the steady climb in crypto and gold. That’s the signal investors are still playing it cautious… and that caution speaks volumes.”

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7. Faith & Success

"Do not conform to the pattern of this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind." – Romans 12:2

In a world constantly pushing us to fit in, it’s easy to lose sight of our purpose. We’re encouraged to follow trends and shape our lives around what society deems important. But true transformation starts from within—by renewing our minds and aligning our thoughts.

When we let faith guide our decisions, we break free from the pressures of conformity and step into a life of purpose. This week, focus on transforming your mindset—choosing faith, integrity, and purpose over the fleeting opinions of the world. Let your life reflect the deeper values that truly matter.

8. Join the Conversation 💬

The best part about this community is that it is full of independent like minded thinkers. So while both Trump and Biden are saying the opposite, I think your opinion will better reflect what’s really going on…

Trump's First 100 Days In Office Were...

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Stay Informed, Stay Empowered! Stay Blessed!

See you next time,

Your Friend,

Neil,

DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is 100% FREE & is designed to help your thinking, not direct it. These newsletters shall NOT be construed as tax, legal, or financial advice and may be outdated or inaccurate; all decisions made as a result of this information are yours alone.

Trading/Liability: Neil McCoy-Ward operates/trades under a private Ltd company within the Isle Of Man.