Opening Note…

Welcome back! Thanks to everyone who entered the prize draw last week. If you missed your opportunity to get your £1 ticket, there’s still time. This is your chance to meet me for a one-of-a-kind experience at my Castle on the Isle of Man.

It will be an informal ‘hang out’ day, but we can certainly chat about your business, your investment portfolio, or anything else you want to talk about, while enjoying the beautiful scenery on the Isle of Man. Did you notice that I will be paying for your flights and accommodation?! Tap the link here to enter for just £1

Recession Claims: Last week, Ray Dalio pushed the red button, claiming the U.S. could be heading for something worse than a recession. This week? The IMF report for April has been released, highlighting a significant worldwide economic slowdown. Meanwhile, the UCLA Anderson Forecast has reported that the US economy is not yet in a recession…

While the world may or may not be in a recession, several signs hint that we’re reaching a breaking point. To confirm recent claims, it’s a good idea to look back at what happened during previous recessions. History may not repeat entirely, but it gives us a great reference point. Here’s what happened in 2008:

In 2008, the U.S. saw a deep recession marked by a 4% GDP decline, 8.8 million job losses, a 40% drop in home prices, and almost 40% market crash. Fast forward to 2025, and growth has certainly slowed. The IMF projects low GDP growth, rising inflation, and weakening consumer confidence.

The point here is that while experts may have a loud opinion, it’s best to do your own research and make an informed assessment. That’s what this newsletter is all about: encouraging you to make your own (correct) decisions.

Based on my analysis, now is not the time to panic (although there are some very noteworthy events unfolding each day). Your best strategy is to look beyond the noise and continue to stay as informed as possible via alternative voices outside of the MSM (Main Stream Media).

Keep reading every single week, and you’ll find supporting information to help you do just that... try to never miss an issue! Or if you do, go back and read it when you have time during the weekend or week.

We’ll now break down the top stories from this week...

Table of Contents

• 1. Weekly Spotlight

• 2. Quick Takes

• 3. Important Video of The Week

• 4. Chart of the Week

• 5. Market Overview

• 6. Faith & Success

• 7. Join the Conversation 💬

1. Weekly Spotlight

Trump’s Tariff Shock: UK Faces Economic Blowback

Trump’s proposed trade tariffs are already sending shockwaves through global markets, and the UK economy is bracing for serious fallout. The Bank of England has now issued a direct warning: Trump’s tariff plans could deliver a “growth shock” to the UK. Why?

The UK, caught awkwardly between the U.S., EU, and China, has no clear trade strategy. BOE Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized that without firm deals in place, the UK is exposed on all sides. Meanwhile, more rhetoric from leadership suggests they are trying to make a balanced decision. And that’s the problem. A plan to “balance all three” is not going to cut it. That’s just indecision. Kier Starmer needs to grow a backbone, he just isn’t a strong leader.

Let’s break it down further:

• Germany’s economy is stagnating, and the so-called engine of Europe is sputtering.

• Inflation remains elevated, but the ECB is trapped. Raise rates, and you break the system. Cut them, and inflation surges.

• The ECB is panicking behind closed doors, with insiders warning that the central bank is running out of tools.

• Social unrest is growing in France, Poland, and Spain, fueled by inflation, immigration pressure, failed green policies & EU election interference over the people’s chosen candidates.

• Macron is calling for EU “sovereignty” from the U.S., openly pushing for independence from Washington and warmer ties with Beijing. Even going so far as to say “we need to reassess our allegiances” - What?!

• Italy’s debt-to-GDP is spiraling, with bond spreads widening again, a sign investors are losing confidence.

• The UK just proposed a stealth tax on pensions, prompting outrage. Critics say it will penalize savers and investors alike, just as inflation eats into real returns. It’s being framed as a “one-time measure,” but we’ve heard that before. A one-time measure tends to become a permanent fixture… (like what they just did in France).

• Youth unemployment in southern Europe remains alarmingly high, breeding long-term instability & culture wars.

• EU cohesion is breaking down, as individual nations quietly prioritize national interests over Brussels directives. We could see an internal conflict within the EU in the distant future as nations begin to re-centre and refocus again.

The Bottom Line:
Europe seems to be unraveling thread by thread. Fiscal desperation. Central bank paralysis. Social unrest. Strategic confusion. This is what economic decline looks like in real time, and it’s going to affect almost everyone: investor, wage earner, saver, and family...

At this point, this doesn’t come as a surprise. The writing has been on the wall for a while now…

2. Quick Takes

Here are the top stories shaping the week:

• Pope Francis’ Succession Talk Intensifies
  Behind the scenes, Vatican insiders are eyeing successors from Italy, Ghana, the Philippines, Canada, Austria, and the U.S., with candidates ranging from progressive reformers to conservative traditionalists. I personally hope we have a conservative traditionalist, it’s the only future I see for the church after the failed liberal policies have backfired hard.

• Kremlin Nuclear Threat as Peace Talks Stall
  Russia has renewed its nuclear threats against the West as peace talks over Ukraine stall. Sergei Shoigu, now heading Russia’s Security Council, warned that Moscow reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to threats, not just against Russia, but also against its ally Belarus, under amendments signed by Putin.

• Major Lenders Withdraw From Green Operations
  Major U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs, have withdrawn from the UN-sponsored Net-Zero Banking Alliance, retreating from previous environmental commitments. Additionally, HSBC has delayed its net-zero goal by two decades, now aiming for 2050. The goal line continues to be pushed back…

• Pakistan-India Water Treaty Crisis
  India’s unilateral move to cancel a key water-sharing agreement has been branded an “act of war” by Pakistan, reigniting fears of conflict between the two nuclear powers. This treaty is vital for Pakistan, supplying about 80% of its irrigated agriculture and hydropower needs.

• IMF: US Must Act Fast on Trade Deals
  The IMF is warning that ongoing tariff tensions and uncertainty could drag global growth down to 2.8% in 2025. IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva says investor confidence is rattled. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent fired back, accusing the IMF of “mission creep” and pushing back on its broader agenda. The global economy, Georgieva stressed, is “one misstep away” from a downturn.

• Pentagon Shakeup: Kasper Out
  Joe Kasper, Chief of Staff to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, resigned this week amid a widening scandal centered around a private Signal chat group. The chat reportedly involved senior advisers Dan Caldwell, Darin Selnick, and Colin Carroll, who were also dismissed.

• Klaus Schwab Under WEF Investigation
  The World Economic Forum is reportedly investigating founder Klaus Schwab after allegations surfaced involving inappropriate conduct, including so-called "in-room massages" during summit events, among other things. Who would have thought it?! (I think it was quite obvious what these weirdos get up to behind closed doors.) It’s like that time I called the Brazilian steak house at Davos and they were FULLY BOOKED for all of Davos, while on stage you heard: “You must become vegetarian and eat ze bugs!”

• RFK Jr.: Toxic Food Era 'Is Coming to an End'
  RFK Jr. has announced a plan to phase out eight synthetic food dyes by 2026, including Red 40 and Yellow 5, commonly found in cereals and candies. He called these additives “poisonous compounds” and says their removal marks the beginning of a new era in food safety. The initiative, backed by the FDA, relies on voluntary industry compliance.

• Musk Steps Back, Trump Responds

  Elon Musk has announced a significant reduction in his involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), citing the need to refocus on Tesla. He will reduce his workload at DOGE by ‘several days per week’, citing that the systems and teams are now set up and no longer require so much of his oversight. President Trump remarked, "He was always, at this time, going to ease out... We expected him to be doing it about this time."

3. Important Video of The Week

Link To Enter My ‘Castle Experience’ Prize Draw: Click Here

What’s Really Behind the U.S.-China Trade War? Supply Chain Chaos Is Just the Start…

What happens when thousands of Chinese products stop flowing into grocery stores near you? (Predominantly in the US). Surprisingly, there are very few news outlets covering what China is doing behind the scenes. Find out more: Watch Full Video On Youtube

4. Chart of the Week

📈 Top Countries by Stock Market Returns Since 2015

This chart visualizes annualized returns (in U.S. dollars) between March 15th, 2015–2025 from major stock exchanges in 30 countries. The S&P 500 delivered a 17% annualized return in 10 years, the most for major stock exchanges from around the world. Major indices from Brazil, India, and Vietnam have also logged between 12–16% returns.

5. Market Overview

Stock Market:

Overall, the S&P 500 posted a weekly gain of 3.8%, reflecting investor optimism amid a volatile backdrop of economic uncertainties.

• Monday (April 21):
  The S&P 500 dropped 2.4% to 5,158.20, as President Trump's renewed comments on Fed Chair Jerome Powell and escalating trade tensions with China unnerved investors. ​

• Tuesday (April 22):
  Markets rebounded, with the S&P 500 rising 2.5% to 5,309.61, recovering Monday's losses amid optimism over potential tariff reductions and strong corporate earnings. ​

• Wednesday (April 23):
  The S&P 500 gained 1.7% to 5,395.92, as investor concerns eased following President Trump's comments suggesting a softer stance on tariffs and the Federal Reserve. ​

• Thursday (April 24):
  The index climbed 2.0% to 5,484.77, marking its third consecutive day of gains, driven by strong tech earnings and hopes of easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China. ​
  

Cryptocurrency:

• Bitcoin (BTC): Surged 10.2% to $93,450, pushing toward fresh highs as investors looked for safety outside fiat systems.

• Ethereum (ETH): Gained 11.1% to $1,760, recovering sharply despite short-term selling pressure, with long-term momentum still building.

• Tether (USDT) & USDC: Both stablecoins remained flat, serving as liquidity anchors amid market movement.

• XRP: Rose 6.2% to $2.19, though recent sell-offs have pressured gains.

• BNB: Slightly up 1.5%, underperforming peers, but maintaining strength near $600.

• Solana (SOL): Led the pack with a 12.6% weekly jump, boosted by ecosystem growth and strong trading volume.

• Cardano (ADA): Rallied 15.5%, showing a clear breakout pattern and leading among top-10 altcoins.

Neil’s Summary: We saw positive movement in the markets this week. However, the tariff war is still fierce, and many investors are no longer chasing hype. They’re searching for stability, hard assets, and real value. Whether you are rotating into gold, defensives, or Bitcoin, stay practical. Tangible assets will never steer you wrong over the long term, my preference is Property/Real Estate and Precious Metals (Gold & Silver).

6. Faith & Success

“Let us not grow weary in doing good, for at the proper time we will reap a harvest if we do not give up.”
— Galatians 6:9

This verse struck me hard this week as I looked at the chaos in the world. People are under pressure, and it is easy to feel like your effort isn’t producing fruit.

If you’re building something right now, whether it's a business, a new skill, or a better future, don’t get worn down or anxious over what’s to come. The harvest comes to those who endure. Stay faithful, keep showing up, and keep sowing the right seeds.

The world needs steady hands right now. Keep going and trust that the results will come.

7. Join the Conversation 💬

Thank you to those who follow and support. I trust you are enjoying this newsletter if you have read this far. However, I am always trying to improve your experience in every way possible. Please let me know your thoughts by filling out the poll below…

Thank you again for all your support! Here’s the link again to enter the prize draw for just £1: LINK

Stay Informed, Stay Empowered! Stay Blessed!

See you next time,

Your Friend,

Neil,

DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is 100% FREE & is designed to help your thinking, not direct it. These newsletters shall NOT be construed as tax, legal, or financial advice and may be outdated or inaccurate; all decisions made as a result of this information are yours alone.

Trading/Liability: Neil McCoy-Ward operates/trades under a private Ltd company within the Isle Of Man.